The Chicago Bears and free-agent wide receiver Allen Robinson have reportedly agreed to a deal that will become official Wednesday when the NFL free agency period opens, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, barring any late snags.
The Bears apparently found their No. 1 receiver in Allen Robinson
Robinson had a 1,400-yard season with Blake Bortles as his QB. He deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Robinson broke out in 2015 with a 1,400-yard season that saw him catch more touchdown passes than anyone in the league. Even after a year where he missed nearly the entire season due to a torn ACL, the former Jaguars wide receiver was expected to get a lot of attention this spring.
The deal will reportedly pay Robinson as much as $42 million over three years, with $25 million guaranteed, per Ian Rapoport. That puts his deal just below what the Chiefs gave Sammy Watkins, three years with $30 million guaranteed.
Why did the Bears sign Robinson?
The 24-year-old was a sought-after receiver thanks to his strong track record of production. In his last two seasons before his ACL tear, Robinson totaled 153 receptions, 2,283 yards, and 20 touchdowns on a team with few other offensive weapons.
He did all of that with an inconsistent Blake Bortles as his quarterback. The Bears are hoping he’ll find even more success as Mitchell Trubisky’s No. 1 receiver. Chicago needed to add offensive firepower in support of its second-year quarterback this season. They did just that with Robinson.
But it’s not a move without risk.
Is Robinson, coming off injury, worth a big payday?
Robinson from 2015 is. The 2018 version makes this a tougher question. His breakout sophomore season established him as both a deep threat — he averaged 17.5 yards per catch — and a red zone target (14 touchdowns). While his 6’3 frame helps mitigate any loss of athleticism that comes with his recovery, a lost step could downgrade him from true WR1 to a supporting role.
One cause for concern is his low catch rate. In 2015, Robinson caught only 53 percent of the passes thrown his way. In 2016, that mark dropped to 48.3. While a big piece of that puzzle is Bortles’ trademark inaccuracy, Robinson’s issues with drops can make him a frustrating playmaker — a criticism that will only increase in frequency when he’s making eight figures per year.
That 2016 was a major step backward. Despite earning the same number of targets, he had 527 fewer receiving yards and eight fewer touchdowns. Was that downturn a byproduct of playing with a struggling Bortles? Or was it endemic of a larger problem?
The Bears will likely be paying big money to find out.
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