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The Bills are angling to trade for a top QB in the 2018 NFL Draft — but will any team bite?

Buffalo’s needs could lead to a windfall for the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts v Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts v Buffalo Bills
Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

The Bills have a plan for 2018 — and they haven’t been entirely subtle about it this offseason. After unloading Tyrod Taylor to the Browns (so sorry, Taylor) and shipping tackle Cordy Glenn to the Bengals to move up from the 21st pick to the 12th, Buffalo is betting hard on a deep, but unpredictable class of college quarterbacks to lead the franchise into the future.

And that could be a boon for the Indianapolis Colts.

The Glenn trade leaves the Bills with the 12th and 22nd picks in the 2018 NFL Draft and a gaping hole behind center. The only quarterback currently under contract for the team is Nathan Peterman, a developmental prospect whose NFL career began as poorly as anyone’s ever has. While the 12th selection could be a spot to draft a prospect at the tail end of what should be a passer-heavy first round, packaging both those picks to a team with an established quarterback would be Buffalo’s key to the upper tier of rookie QBs.

It’s the kind of trade that would make sense for both teams, assuming the Colts are confident in Andrew Luck’s return from injury. According to the draft’s oft-cited trade value chart, the 12th and 22nd picks score a value of 1980, while Indianapolis’ third pick scores a 2200. Adding third-round picks in 2018 and 2019 (~116 points each) would make that a fair trade in the eyes of front office evaluators.

So it’s no surprise the Bills are already working to make it happen.

Why would the Bills make that trade?

In 2017, three different teams traded up to select passers among the first 12 picks. There will be a useful quarterback prospect available at the No. 12 pick this year, but it’s unlikely it will be anyone in the Sam Darnold/Josh Allen/Baker Mayfield/Josh Rosen tier.

Among the top 11 picks, four teams — the Browns, Giants, Jets, Broncos, and Dolphins — could all use varying degrees of quarterback help. The Browns acquired Taylor, but he’s likely just a bridge to whomever they select at No. 1 or No. 4 this year. The Broncos signed Case Keenum, but that’s only a two-year deal that will allow him to mentor a young, non-Paxton Lynch quarterback. The Jets are signing Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater, but the former’s age and the latter’s injury history mean they’re only getting one-year deals.

Jumping into the Colts’ slot at No. 3 would ensure the Bills get a shot at a top quarterback. While Buffalo has several holes to fill, several key starters return from last year’s playoff team — including offensive standouts like LeSean McCoy and a hopefully healthy Kelvin Benjamin. Picking up a rookie quarterback will give the Bills an inexpensive option that allows them to spend more freely on free agents as well, which should include adding some much-needed weapons to an offense where no wide receiver had more than 27 catches.

Why would the Colts make this trade?

Indianapolis’ willingness to move down in the draft will depend on how healthy the team believes Andrew Luck is. If the Colts think he’s ready to go, if they don’t see a need to invest in a new passer — or see Jacoby Brissett as a better-than-expected option behind center in another emergency — it makes sense to collect the kind of assets to overhaul a depleted roster.

New general manager Chris Ballard has to address holes along all three levels of the team’s defense, along his offensive line, and at running back. The cheapest way to do that is through the draft, where plug-and-play starters will be abundant at Buffalo’s picks.

Indianapolis ranked 29th in the league in sack percentage, 30th in total defense, 30th in scoring offense, 30th in scoring defense, and 31st in total offense. It’s going to take a lot to fix those problems, and locking down effective young players with inexpensive rookie contracts is the strongest way to rebuild the Colts into a contender.

Swapping the No. 3 pick for two first-rounders and two third-rounders would give the team multiple shots at finding those players.

Why is the Bills’ next quarterback doomed (probably)?

Buffalo has been searching for its franchise passer since Jim Kelly announced his retirement in 1996. While the team’s list of starting QBs doesn’t quite reach the Browns’ level of futility, it’s still pretty grim:

List of Bills starting QBs after Jim Kelly

Player

Pro Bowl appearances

Todd Collins0
Alex Van Pelt0
Doug Flutie1
Rob Johnson0
Drew Bledsoe1
Kelly Holcomb0
J.P. Losman0
Trent Edwards0
Ryan Fitzpatrick0
Brian Brohm0
EJ Manuel0
Thad Lewis0
Jeff Tuel0
Kyle Orton0
Tyrod Taylor1
Nathan Peterman0

*Matt Cassel, who took one snap for the Bills in 2015, was not included.

Since 1997, the team’s only Pro Bowl players have been castoffs from other franchises: Flutie, Bledsoe, and Taylor. Only Taylor and Flutie were able to lead the Bills to the postseason, where they won zero playoff games. Since picking Kelly in 1983, quarterbacks drafted by the Bills have a combined 48-80 record as starters.

Drafting Allen, or Darnold, or Mayfield, or Rosen is a risk. There’s no slam-dunk top prospect in this year’s draft like Luck in 2012 or Cam Newton in 2011, but a deep class should provide Buffalo some comfort. Even if No. 3 is the highest they can shoot for, there’s still a chance the player the Bills take there winds up developing into the best quarterback of his class.

At least, until the Buffalo curse takes over and turns him into J.P. Losman Jr.

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