3 biggest surprises and 3 safest picks from Todd McShay’s latest 2018 NFL mock draft

ESPN’s Todd McShay has released his third mock draft of 2018. For a third straight mock, he has the Cleveland Browns taking Sam Darnold at No. 1 overall.

But this is McShay’s first mock draft since the NFL Combine, so things are going to be slightly different after players have made their important “first” impressions on NFL evaluators.

We’re going to take a look at the picks that make the most sense knowing what we know now from the combine, as well as offseason moves that have been made since the season ended.

RB Saquon Barkley, No. 2, New York Giants. Barkley was arguably the biggest story coming out of the combine. Between his 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and bench press prowess, he’s made himself the favorite in Vegas to be drafted No. 1 overall. He put on a spectacle that was one of the best workouts that has ever been done at the combine. Barkley would fit right in with the Giants, who haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Ahmad Bradshaw in 2012. He also has skills out of the backfield in the receiving game.

McShay wrote, “The Giants could go a lot of different directions here. If they are really looking to win now with Eli Manning at QB, then they should take the best player in the draft, Barkley. Give Manning a running game and a little more pass protection (via free agency or later in the draft) and Giants fans would argue they are a playoff team. Bradley Chubb and Quenton Nelson are in play here as well. And New York could also get a sweet offer to move back for a team looking to jump up and take a QB.”

In Dan Kadar’s latest mock draft for SB Nation, he also has the Giants taking Barkley.

WR D.J. Moore, No. 29, Jacksonville Jaguars. Blake Bortles is sticking around! The Jaguars are going to need to get him a new weapon after the team opted to not franchise tag Allen Robinson, who will now likely be on his way out in free agency.

McShay also points out that they could lose Marqise Lee, too. If that’s the case, he understandably likes Moore here. “Moore’s tape is really good when he’s targeted, and his combine showing, including a 4.42 40, only helped his cause,” McShay wrote. “A tough WR with good run-after-the-catch skills.”

Kadar has the Jaguars selecting Notre Dame offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey here, saying, “This is strictly a value choice. McGlinchey could move to the right side and give the Jaguars a nice set of bookends with Cam Robinson at left tackle.” It’s also one of the few places the Jaguars actually need to upgrade this offseason.

C/G Billy Price, No. 30, Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings did a good job of rebooting their offensive line last season. Part of that, as McShay points out, would be going back to what they know. “Minnesota had great success with 2017 third-round pick Pat Elflein,” he said, “So they go back to the Buckeyes well here.”

Price had surgery after tearing his pectoral bench pressing at the combine, but is expected to be ready for training camp. The Vikings could have a new quarterback next season, as they let Case Keenum hit free agency, along with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford (hello, Kirk Cousins?). A smart move would be helping keep whoever is back there upright.

In Kadar’s mock, he has the Vikings going with UTEP guard Will Hernandez, who (like previously mentioned players) had a strong combine. Prior to Price’s pec injury at the combine, Kadar had him going No. 29 to the Jaguars.

G Quenton Nelson, No. 5, Denver Broncos. Nelson had one heck of a combine. If you didn’t know who he was going into it, you certainly did coming out of it. But this pick seems a tad surprising, considering the Broncos’ nightmare quarterback situation last season. But McShay provides some insight there.

“I keep hearing that the Broncos are looking to upgrade the QB position in free agency, but the name I keep hearing isn’t Kirk Cousins -- it’s Case Keenum,” he wrote. “If Denver gets either guy, it needs significant help on the O-line, even after drafting offensive tackle Garett Bolles in the first round last year. Nelson had a terrific combine and is a plug-and-play high-level starter. He’s a guard, not a tackle, but he’s also currently my second-ranked prospect in this class. If Denver doesn’t address QB in free agency, Allen is the likely pick here.”

In Kadar’s mock draft, he has the Broncos going with UCLA’s Josh Rosen. This pick would make a lot of sense!

TE Dallas Goedert, No. 25, Tennessee Titans. This pick is questionable, especially for our friends over at Music City Miracles. Goedert is a talented player — that’s not a question. But the Titans have bigger needs than tight end. They have Delanie Walker, who has been great for them. Although he is aging, the position doesn’t seem like it should be priority for the Titans. Kadar had the Titans going with Ohio State pass rusher Sam Hubbard in this spot.

McShay didn’t give any particular reasoning for the selection other than (understandably) praising Goedert for his skills.

“It isn’t a terrific tight end group this year,” he wrote. “But Goedert is the best one in this class. He’s still a little underrated and didn’t get a chance to shine at the Senior Bowl or combine because of injury. His pro day will be important. You don’t get too many two-way TEs coming out of college, but Goedert fits the bill. He’s got a big frame (6-4, 260) with good speed and can play in-line or detached.”

S Justin Reid, No. 26, Atlanta Falcons Reid wouldn’t be a bad pick here for the Falcons, but in a situation similar to that of the Titans, it feels they have more pressing needs in this spot. The Falcons could particularly benefit from improving at both the defensive tackle and guard positions.

McShay’s reasoning with Reid here makes sense though, while also acknowledging this pick is a bit of a reach. “Guard is a definite need for Atlanta, but a position I believe the Falcons will address in free agency,” he wrote. “This might be a bit of a reach, but I really like Reid’s tape and he backed it up with a great combine workout (4.40 40 at 6-1, 204, along with 10-foot, 8-inch broad jump and 36.5-inch vertical jump). I think he’s worthy of a top-40 selection.”

Kadar had the Falcons going the defensive tackle route here, taking Michigan’s Maurice Hurst. Florida products have worked out recently for the Falcons — just look at Keanu Neal.