This morning, I mentioned that the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders’ Conference USA Tournament semifinal matchup, potentially pitting Kermit Davis’ squad against a Marshall Thundering Herd squad that won both of the pair’s regular season meetings, was a potential trouble spot for them and for the bubble teams that needed Middle to claim the league’s auto bid. Well, it turns out the Blue Raiders won’t need to sweat that game any longer. That’s because the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles, the nine seed in Frisco, Texas, took down the conference champs 71-68 in Thursday night’s first quarterfinal.
Bracketology 2018: Middle Tennessee just gummed up the bubble works
The two-time defending Conference USA Tournament champs — and conqueror of a Big Ten power in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments — failed to make it out of its league quarterfinals.
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And that result puts Giddy Potts and company squarely on the bubble. For the moment, I’m keeping Middle Tennessee in. An RPI of 31 means the Blue Raiders will definitely be discussed, and while they may not have the brand name wins of a Louisville or Saint Mary’s, Middle’s 2-3 record in its limited slate of Group 1 games compares favorably with that of the Cardinals’ (3-11), especially in winning percentage. Expanding to cover both Groups 1 and 2, the Blue Raiders’ 5-4 mark is close to that of the Gaels (4-3) and blows Louisville’s record of 5-13 out of the water.
Middle Tennessee finished the season at 12-1 in true road games, though they’re now 1-4 in neutral-site contests. That’s two wins better than 10-1 Saint Mary’s and well above Louisville, who went 4-7.
Now the late Group 4 loss to Southern Miss., the Blue Raiders’ first such defeat of the season, is worrisome, as is Saturday’s loss to Marshall, mostly because Davis gave his second unit more playing time with the league title already won. It will be fascinating to see how the Committee handles that tactical decision. They might very well give us a replay of the 2013 First Four, when Middle Tennessee, then in the Sun Belt, lost to Saint Mary’s by a 67-54 score in an all mid-major showdown.
Losses were a theme in the other big bubble games of Thursday evening’s early window.
- The Notre Dame Fighting Irish struggled mightily against the Duke Blue Devils in the second half, dropping their ACC Tournament quarterfinal, 88-70. I’m not sure the Irish did enough with Bonzie Colson back in the lineup to warrant inclusion, even if they got to the now largely irrelevant 20-win mark.
- In the Big East Tournament, the Villanova Wildcats burnished their top seed credentials by crushing the Marquette Golden Eagles, 94-70. The Golden Eagles, like the Arizona State Sun Devils yesterday, really needed a stronger closing argument.
- The Texas Longhorns fought hard, but fell to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 Tournament quarters, 73-69. Don’t expect Shaka Smart’s squad to drop out as a result, however.
- The bubble elimination game in the SEC Tournament went to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who held off the LSU Tigers, 80-77. Ben Howland’s team really needs to keep winning, thanks to their lousy (292nd) non-conference schedule and 3-7 mark in Group 1 games.
- In the Pac-12 Tournament’s second quarterfinal, the UCLA Bruins took care of the Stanford Cardinal, 88-77, to set up a semifinal against the top-seeded Arizona Wildcats, a team the Bruins already defeated in Tucson.
Here’s the updated cut line picture heading into the late Thursday night games.
Last Four Byes: Texas, Providence Friars (vs. Xavier Musketeers, Friday), USC Trojans (vs. Oregon State Beavers, tonight), North Carolina State Wolfpack
Last Four In: Baylor Bears (vs. West Virginia Mountaineers, tonight), Alabama Crimson Tide (vs. Auburn, Friday), Middle Tennessee, Saint Mary’s
First Four Out: Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Arizona State
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State Cowboys, Syracuse Orange, Utah Utes (vs. Oregon Ducks, tonight), Boise State Broncos (vs. Utah State Aggies, tonight)
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