2018 NFL mock drafts: How accurate were projections in Round 1?

Usually we all know who’s going to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Last year, it was clear month in advance that it would be Myles Garrett at the top of the order, just like there was no doubt it would be Jared Goff in 2016, Jameis Winston in 2015 or Jadeveon Clowney in 2014.

The last real intrigue about the top spot was in 2013 — that is, if you somehow think the Kansas City Chiefs’ decision between offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel wasn’t the most boring draft headliner ever.

But 2018 was about as fascinating as it gets.

There were clear-cut options at running back and pass rusher, but the Cleveland Browns were obviously aiming for a quarterback and it was difficult to figure out which one would wind up at the top of the class.

Mock drafts pegged overwhelmingly pegged USC’s Sam Darnold and Wyoming’s Josh Allen as the favorites.

In our survey of 97 mock drafts, Darnold and Allen absorbed more than 90 percent of the projections for the top spot, while a grand total of three experts — ESPN’s Mel Kiper, NJ Advance Media’s Darryl Slater, and Philly.com’s Les Bowen — switched to Mayfield in the final days before the first round.

It was a sign of things to come on a night that was among the toughest ever for those making draft predictions:

Not every pick was shocking on Thursday night. A few of them were sniffed out by experts before the first round began:

Saquon Barkley to the Giants became obvious

Giants general manager Dave Gettleman was so obvious about his love for Saquon Barkley that it almost felt like it had to be a smokescreen. For months, he raved about all the great things that the Penn State product could do, but many were still convinced No. 2 was just a little too early for a running back.

Gettleman shot that thought down many times and — by the time draft night rolled around — most experts were on board and the pick seemed inevitable.

Barkley to the Giants wasn’t a hard one to call.

Quenton Nelson was the favored pick for the Colts

He didn’t quite get the majority mock drafts’ picks for the Colts in the way Barkley did for the Giants, but he was still the huge favorite for Indianapolis.

After the Colts traded down from No. 3 to No. 6 in March, team owner Jim Irsay made it kind of clear that Barkley, Nelson and Bradley Chubb were the favorites. Most thought Barkley and Chubb would be off the board, leaving Nelson as the logical choice.

That’s exactly what happened, making 44 percent of mock drafters correct about the Colts’ pick.

Leighton Vander Esch to the Cowboys wasn’t unexpected

The 44 percent who got the Colts’ pick right was the last big win for mock drafters of the night. The next closest among picks that weren’t traded was when 24 percent who thought the Cowboys would take Leighton Vander Esch were proven correct.

After cutting Dez Bryant, wide receiver became an easy choice for the Cowboys in mock drafts. But days before the draft, Jane Slater of NFL Network reported Dallas saw Vander Esch as “Brian Urlacher 2.0” and there was a late surge connecting the team and player.

Most mock drafts still got the pick wrong, but no player was tied to the Cowboys more often than the Boise State linebacker.

Denzel Ward to the Browns instead of Bradley Chubb

Three picks after shaking up the NFL Draft with the No. 1 pick, the Browns made a pick that was maybe even more surprising at No. 4.

No selection in the first round was considered more of a lock in the mock draft database than Chubb going to the Browns. In the 28 mock drafts that had Cleveland going in a direction other than Chubb, 20 had the Browns taking Barkley under the assumption the Giants would pass on the running back.

Not one of the 97 mock drafts thought the pick would be Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward.

As a consequence, it set up another surprising pick when the Broncos landed Chubb — a player few thought they’d have a chance to take — at No. 5 instead.

The 49ers shored up the offensive line with Mike McGlinchey

With Joe Staley at left tackle and Trent Brown at right tackle, there didn’t seem any reason for the 49ers to spend a top-10 pick on a player who would either switch positions or spend the beginning of his career as a backup.

The pick was cleared up some when Brown was traded Friday to the New England Patriots, paving the way for McGlinchey to start at right tackle. But it definitely wasn’t something many expected.

San Francisco reporter Cam Inman said McGlinchey might be the pick a few hours before the draft began and got at least three “no way” replies from 49ers fans.

No one thought Terrell Edmunds or Rashaad Penny would be first-round picks

In the 97 mock drafts surveyed, neither Edmunds nor Penny appeared once.

But with running backs Derrius Guice and Sony Michel still available, the Seahawks went with Penny at No. 27. Then one pick later, with safeties Justin Reid and Jessie Bates still on the board, the Steelers took Edmunds.

Give bonus points to any mock drafts that even thought one of these players would go in the first round, let alone projected them to the right team.