Why is the Super Bowl going to Arizona and New Orleans again but not Las Vegas?

When the 2020 NFL season begins, the Las Vegas Raiders are expected to be in their new $1.8 billion home just behind the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino on the Las Vegas Strip.

It would seemingly check all the boxes to be the perfect site for a Super Bowl:

But at the NFL’s annual meeting, owners named Glendale, Arizona and New Orleans as the hosts of the 2023 and 2024 Super Bowls. That guarantees the new stadium in Las Vegas won’t host until 2025, at the earliest.

In two of the last three years, a stadium hosted a Super Bowl within the first two years of its opening — Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California in 2016, and U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis in 2018.

In the next four years, two more brand new facilities — Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and a still-under-construction stadium in Los Angeles — will host Super Bowls in 2019 and 2022.

The new stadium in Los Angeles is set to open for the same season as the Raiders’ future home.

So what gives with Las Vegas?

The NFL changed the process by which it determines Super Bowl hosts. In the past, several cities would bid for the chance at the big stage. But now, the NFL will make that decision on its own and give its selection the chance to be the sole bidder for the opportunity.

That new decision-making process didn’t award Las Vegas a bid in 2023 or 2024, and it may be partly because the Raiders didn’t seem all that interested. At the last owners meeting in March, team owner Mark Davis told Raiders.com that hosting the NFL Draft would be a better way to introduce the NFL to an unfamiliar market:

“Yeah, I think the draft will obviously come first. And then we’ll see how that all irons out. You know the change in the process for the Super Bowl, so it’s not as much a competition as it is going to be a strategic decision making. But I think with the results of the sales of the stadium and as positive as they are up to this point, I think it will be a slam dunk when it comes time for us to put in a proposal for it or get into that process. There are probably four or five teams right now and cities that have already been approved. I don’t know if it’s this or May when we’ll approve two more. (inaudible) But, maybe we’ll go for one of the ones right after that.”

The 2019 NFL Draft will reportedly be awarded to Nashville. That leaves Cleveland/Canton, Kansas City, Denver, and Las Vegas as the four possible hosts for the 2020 NFL Draft, which will likely be announced this week.

Unlike Santa Clara, Minneapolis, Atlanta, and Los Angeles — which recently hosted or will soon host Super Bowls in their new stadiums — Las Vegas is a media market that has never had an NFL team before. It’d make sense for the league to dip its toes into the water with an NFL Draft first.

When in doubt, go with what works.

No city has hosted more Super Bowls than New Orleans, which will be the site of the game for an 11th time in 2024. That will pull it even with Miami, which will temporarily take the lead when it hosts for the 11th time in 2020.

University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale has been in vogue and will host its third Super Bowl in 15 years, as it previously hosted in 2008 and 2015. Prior to that, Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe hosted the Super Bowl in 1996 — the only other time the game was in Arizona.

Historically, the NFL has loved Southern California, Florida, and New Orleans most for Super Bowls. Arizona seems to have joined that rotation. The league generally aims for warmer weather in winter for its biggest event.

Again, Las Vegas checks all the boxes.

It remains to be seen if the new city will embrace the Raiders like it has the NHL’s Golden Knights. But it’s a place that knows how to throw a party and knows how to host a huge event. And even if the NFL is being oddly patient about taking advantage of its new market, it probably won’t wait much longer.

“When you think Las Vegas, clearly a great entertainment capital, the Raiders stadium,” NFL senior vice president of events Peter O’Reilly told the Las Vegas Review-Journal in February. “That said, there are a number of other cities who have been traditional hosts who haven’t hosted for a while. So, where Las Vegas sits in that next cycle of (Super Bowls) 57 to 60 is still to be determined. … Assuming everything moves forward on course, that’s a window that is realistic. … From a hotel and entertainment standpoint and what will be a tremendous venue when it’s built, (Las Vegas) is a viable Super Bowl host for sure.”

The sites of Super Bowls 59 and 60 in 2025 and 2026 won’t be decided until a future offseason. But expect Las Vegas to be a favorite to host one soon.