The Nationals shouldn’t sell at the MLB trade deadline

According to FanGraphs’ postseason odds, there are only six teams in baseball with a better chance to win the 2018 World Series than the Washington Nationals. If this seems surprising to you, this is because you watch baseball. Computers don’t. Get your nose out of ... yourselves ... and watch a ballgame, computers.

The Nationals are .500 as of this writing. They’re .500 over their last 10 games. If there’s any reason to think they won’t be .500 over their next 10 games, it’s because they’ve been often been worse than that for long stretches recently. And this is all before you get to the weird neck problem that Stephen Strasburg is going through.

However, that might be the benefit of listening to the dispassionate computers. They’re not confused by small samples and sleights of hand. They get to look at Bryce Harper’s career and see a budding Hall of Famer, not the broken player who struck out three times against Dan Straily on Thursday night, and that should make their predictions more reliable. In theory.

But if you’re looking for reasons why the Nationals should think they’re still in it, here is a program that looks at hundreds of seasons and thousands of seasons and comes to that exact conclusion.

On the other hand, just think of all the prospects they could get from a complete fire sale.

Ken Rosenthal stops short of suggesting the Nationals are considering a fire sale, noting that they still have hopes of re-signing Bryce Harper in the offseason, and the odds for that would go down with a trade. That makes sense, so we’ll exercise our better judgment and refrain from speculating about a Harper trade, even though it would be really, really, really fun to do so.

Even without including Harper or Max Scherzer or Strasburg (or the $38 million he’s owed next season), though, the Nationals could still have a supremely productive trade deadline. If you assume that the core of Scherzer, Strasburg, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton, and Juan Freaking Soto will allow them to contend next year, which isn’t exactly going out on a limb, the goal would be to trade the luxury players who probably wouldn’t get a mention in a 400-word preseason preview.

Players like Matt Adams, who has been a delightful find and a productive force in the lineup, but isn’t so important to the overall foundation of the Nationals that GM Mike Rizzo would run around in a panic without him. That goes for Mark Reynolds, who was unfairly ignored this offseason and has been a revelation for, oh, the third straight year. Both of those guys would appeal to contending teams. Picture the Nationals pushing a cart and ringing a bell down a filthy 1800s London street, screaming “Dingers, ‘ere! Fresh dingers!” The line would be around the block.

Beyond those two, you have the found money of Jeremy Hellickson and the cost certainty of Gio Gonzalez. Teams are scrambling for the J.A. Happs and Cole Hamelseses of the world, and Gonzalez would fit in nicely with any team looking for a rotation upgrade.

It would be rougher to trade Sean Doolittle, as the fans have gotten extremely fond of walk-free dominance, and they love to scream “DOOOOOOOOOOOO” whenever they spot him in the wild. At the same time, he’s the one player on the team who could fetch a top-40 prospect but isn’t necessarily a cornerstone for the next several years. The Nationals would at least have to listen.

The plan would be to stockpile prospects like the Braves did in their sell-offs, except the Nationals would already be far ahead. They still have Victor Robles waiting to explode and Carter Kieboom advancing quickly. Their core is still young, with the exception of the best pitcher in baseball. But the consolation prize there is that the best pitcher in baseball is still the best pitcher in baseball. This is a team that is built to win immediately, but there would be a way to exchange their second-tier pieces for extra underpaid players, who would help them spend even more to acquire more (and possibly better) second-tier pieces. It would be trading their cake and signing it too.

All it would cost them is a chance to contend in what could be Bryce Harper’s final season with the team, which would be a miserable coda to a sneaky legacy of sadness. The Nationals were supposed to run away with the NL East yet again, but instead, they might sell like they’re common White Sox.

The Strasburg news almost pushes me over the edge, but I’ll stick with the idea that the Nationals need to pretend like their window is closing, even if we’re not even sure that there is a window for a team that features the best living pitcher and a 19-year-old who hits like George Brett. Every contending season is a gift, and the Nationals would be better off trusting in their Pythagorean record (four games better than their actual record) and have faith that the cold, unfeeling computers are right.

The Nationals should be better. There are statistical indicators that suggest this. There are historical indicators that suggest this. Common sense suggests this. And even though they’re seven games back in the NL East and 4.5 games behind the second wild card, there’s a strong argument to make that they’re the most talented team in the division.

Remember the baseball truism: If you have enough talent to have a wild, productive fire sale, you probably have enough talent to contend, too. The computers think the Nationals will be fine. It’s only the people who have watched Harper flail and the Nationals fall down the stairs in every NLDS who are worried.

Trust the computers this time. The worst-case scenario would be that the Nationals would still have a young, competitive team with money to spend next year. An extra pile of B- and C-prospects wouldn’t change their fortunes much. But giving up on a disappointing team a couple of months before what could be a rather disappointing offseason seems like a great way to alienate a fan base that still buys tickets.

Either the Phillies or Braves will probably win the division. Two other teams will be playing in the Wild Card Game. But the Nationals are too close to give up just yet.

If they screw up these next three games against the Marlins, sure, revisit what it means to be three games under .500 and looking up at six teams in the standings. My guess is that they’ll go for it. My other guess is that they’ll make August and September more exciting than you think.