NFL Panic Index 2018: What are the Raiders even doing?

The NFL sells hope better than any other sport, and there’s no better time to be full of brazen confidence than right before the season begins. But deep down, there’s also that doubt creeping in.

What if those free agent signings don’t work out? What if the draft picks end up as busts? What if a key player goes down with a major injury? What if my team DOESN’T win at least 10 games?!

Now that the new season is almost here, it’s time to start figuring out what you should be panicking about right — or not.

The Raiders were busy Saturday, sending all-world defensive talent Khalil Mack to the Bears and taking backup quarterback AJ McCarron off the Bills’ hands. It was, let’s just say, a dark day for Raiders fans.

Jon Gruden’s plan for his Raiders revival sure has been ... something. His first season as the team’s $100 million head coach has seen an exodus of talent for the upcoming season, without much coming back in return.

Key Raiders departures in 2018:
Khalil Mack (traded)
Marquette King (released)
Martavis Bryant (released)
Obi Melifonwu (released)
EJ Manuel (released)
Travis Carrie (free agency)
Michael Crabtree (free agency)

Key Raiders additions for 2018:
Jordy Nelson (free agency)
Tahir Whitehead (free agency)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (free agency)
AJ McCarron (trade)
Kolton Miller and six other draft picks

So now the Raiders are relying on a head coach who hasn’t stepped foot on a sideline in a decade, a 32-year-old running back who has already retired once (Marshawn Lynch), a 33-year-old WR2 whose best years aren’t only behind him but also came as a result of playing with Aaron Rodgers (Nelson), and a defense led by ... Bruce Irvin? Whitehead? A soon-to-be 36-year-old Derrick Johnson?

Just getting back to last year’s six-win total is going to be an accomplishment for Gruden. But maybe that was his plan the whole time.

Panic index: The Raiders’ defense was pretty bad even with Mack, the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year, on it. And now he’s gone. Maybe the two first-round picks Oakland got in exchange for him will fill that void — but not in 2018.

So you didn’t win any preseason games. Is it really that big of deal? The Browns went 4-0 last year and look how that turned out for them. Atlanta didn’t win an exhibition game last year and still made it all the way to the NFC Divisional Round.

Still, it’s a little bit of a bummer for Falcons fans, given what the Super Bowl expectations for their team this season, to sit through four games without a win. We’re not even going to remind you that no team that went winless in the preseason in the era of the 16-game season has ever won a Super Bowl. You just learned how to cope with 28-3 jokes ... you don’t need that stress in your life now.

Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman didn’t play at all. You can’t put stock in any results that don’t include those two. Hell, that might have even been a sliver lining to the exhibition season because Tevin Coleman got more reps with the starters and looked pretty good.

Calvin Ridley got more snaps with the, ones too. He did not look especially, um, polished in those reps, but he is just a rookie.

Panic index: Despite an 0-1 start to the season and the red zone woes continuing, there’s no reason to be panicked yet, Falcons fans. Save your consternation for that inevitable soul-crushing loss in January.

It’s been a while since an ACL tear cost a quarterback games in the following season. Wentz got injured in December, making his timeline for a return to the Eagles a little more difficult.

Quarterbacks have generally done just fine a year after knee reconstruction, but Wentz is in a bit of a tougher spot. Unlike Joe Flacco in 2016, Carson Palmer and Sam Bradford in 2015, or Tom Brady in 2009, he didn’t get to dip his toes in the water with preseason games.

The last time a quarterback skipped preseason and dove straight into the starting lineup during the regular season was Robert Griffin III in 2013. Griffin has since become the poster child for poorly handled knee injuries.

Wentz isn’t going to be rushed back — he might not even be back until October. Fortunately for the Eagles, they can win whether Nick Foles looks like he did in the Super Bowl, or if he looks like he did in their season opener (117 yards on 34 attempts ... yikes).

Philadelphia doesn’t really have any choice at this point but to ride the Foles roller coaster. When it’s time for Wentz to go, he’ll dive in from zero to 100. A return against the Buccaneers or Colts in Week 2 or 3 could be forgiving, but if it ends up being the Titans or Vikings in Weeks 4 or 5, Wentz is in for a hell of a challenge.

Panic index: The long run is what’s really important here. Philadelphia has a star for the next decade or longer in Wentz, and there’s little reason to think he’s going down the Griffin route. But it’s reasonable to expect him to look like less than the version of Wentz, who was less than a month away from being MVP in 2017, especially right away.

Aaron Donald got his money. Khalil Mack got a new team and then got his money. Now it’s just Earl Thomas sitting out and waiting for more, which he probably won’t get.

The Seahawks seem content to wait for the safety to show up and play out the final year of his contract with the team, and Thomas seems fine with missing a lot of regular season time to make a point that he deserves more. And that means Seattle will turn to Tedric Thompson and Bradley McDougald to be their starting safeties until Thomas returns.

That, along with the losses of Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril, and Sheldon Richardson, is bad news for the Seahawks.

Panic index: After five straight years finishing top five in total defense, Seattle fell outside the top 10 in 2017. Buckle up, because it’s probably going to get worse in 2018.

UPDATE: Thomas reported to the Seahawks on Wednesday, with no new deal, and boy, he sure didn’t seem happy about it.

Le’Veon Bell’s status with the Steelers is more theoretical than practical after holding out through the preseason after getting the franchise tag once again. The team said it was “disappointed” Bell hadn’t shown up yet — and his offensive line is pissed. Even if he does return this week, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be ready to go Sunday. Losing him would no doubt throw a wrench into the Steelers’ offense. The veteran was a first-team All-Pro last year as the team’s workhorse tailback (a league-high 320 carries) and served as the team’s second-most targeted receiver. No single player played a bigger role in any team’s offense than Bell last fall.

Meanwhile, the Browns have slowly built a respectable defense that’s filled with young talent. 2017 No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett looks like the truth after recording seven sacks in 11 games as a rookie and adding two more this preseason. Joe Schobert and Christian Kirksey have developed into an intimidating pairing at linebacker. Denzel Ward brings tremendous potential to the secondary, even if he can’t tackle right. They’ll look to build up a unit that ranked 31st in the league in points allowed but 11th in opponent efficiency last fall.

And if that defense finds a way to injure an aging Ben Roethlisberger? Landry Jones is no longer on the roster, leaving the club with two young backups with zero NFL regular season passes to their name. Jones was no world beater, but one thing he did exceptionally well was beat the Browns — all three of his wins as a starter came against Cleveland. Will Joshua Dobbs or Mason Rudolph be able to claim the same?

Panic index: James Conner isn’t Bell, but he ran for a tidy 100 yards on 19 carries this preseason and added seven catches in three games. He’s ready for a jump in responsibilities in his second season, and there’s no way facing the Browns is going to be tougher than beating cancer. Besides, it’s tough to be too worried when you’ve got Antonio Brown.

For a decade, the Browns pretty much had only one bright spot: All-Pro left tackle Joe Thomas. In March, Thomas retired, leaving a huge hole to fill on the offensive line, both literally and figuratively.

All offseason, the Browns have had issues trying to find the right fit at left tackle. At one point, Shon Coleman was the choice. He has since been traded to the 49ers. The Browns signed former No. 2 pick Greg Robinson, but he’s a currently a backup — and should be. They used a second-round pick to draft Austin Corbett, who has spent all preseason at guard while the left tackle job seemed to go to, by default, left guard Joel Bitonio.

Then in the fourth preseason game, Hue Jackson decided to start rookie undrafted free agent Desmond Harrison at left tackle. Harrison, who missed most of training camp with a toe injury, played fine, but it was also not with the Browns’ ones — or against the ones on the opposing defense.

That didn’t matter to Jackson, who has decided to trot out Harrison for his first NFL start this Sunday.

No biggie: he’ll just be trying to protect Tyrod Taylor’s blind side against the Steelers’ usually tough defense.

Panic index: This is no knock on Harrison (who has a lot of potential) or rookie UDFAs. We all know the Browns’ depressing quarterback history. So regardless of who starts any game for the Browns at left tackle, pray for Taylor.