The Eagles and Falcons need to fix their red zone problems in 2018

The NFL is back (!) and decided to give us a treat for opening night with a playoff rematch between the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Atlanta Falcons. The last time these teams played each other, in the NFC Divisional game, it ended in dramatic fashion. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones failed to convert on what would have been a game-winning touchdown on fourth-and-goal. The Eagles won 15-10 and advanced.

Atlanta and Philadelphia are two of the premier teams in the NFL right now and expectations are high for both. The game should be a tightly contested slugfest, but the opportunities for one of these teams to separate from the other will come down to how well they play in the red zone on Thursday night.

According to Bill Connelly’s numbers in the SB Nation NFL Preview, both teams could stand to improve upon their play in the red zone — on offense and defense.

The Falcons didn’t have an issue getting to the red zone; they were first in standard success rate for the 2017 season. Once they got there, though, they had issues with turnovers. The Falcons ranked 23rd in turnover rate inside the 10-yard line, turning the ball over on 2.6 percent of their plays. Outside of that, they were one of the more successful red zone offenses.

Atlanta Falcons’ offensive red zone performance

How they can get better in 2018: The Falcons certainly have the personnel to be more productive in the red zone this season. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Mohamed Sanu, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper, and Calvin Ridley are talented enough to score on any defense in the league. They need to execute and benefit from better situational play-calling from second-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.

The first step is to use their players who are actually productive red zone receivers. As enticing as it might be to throw the ball to Jones in the red zone, that’s not his greatest skill. Jones led the Falcons with 18 red zone targets in 2017, but he caught just five of them for one touchdown.

Hooper and Coleman are probably the best red zone targets on the team. Hooper caught seven of his nine targets and scored two touchdowns while Coleman caught all four of his targets and scored three touchdowns.

Looking at the talent that the Eagles had on defense, it’s hard to figure out exactly why they weren’t a red zone stalwart last year.

Outside of the red zone, the Eagles were arguably the best defense in the league. Like the Falcons offense, they were first in standard down success rate. Philadelphia wasn’t bad in the red zone, by any stretch, but the unit just wasn’t as solid as they were outside of it.

Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive red zone performance

How they can get better in 2018: For a team with overwhelming defensive line talent, the Eagles should have been a bit better on the goal line, but they were one of the worst teams in the league in that area of the field. The additions of Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata should help, though they’ll be missing defensive tackle Tim Jernigan against Atlanta.

If the Eagles can control the red zone and limit Atlanta to field goals in that area of the field again, they’ll have more than a decent chance to come out on top in the season opener. Again, like the Falcons they have more than enough talent to be a dominant red zone defense — especially when they get stud linebacker Nigel Bradham back from a one-game suspension.

A defense with Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, and the Falcons’ secondary should simply be better than they were in the red zone. The only thing Atlanta did remotely well was create turnovers inside the 10-yard line.

Atlanta Falcons’ defensive performance

It’s worth noting the Falcons were third in points per scoring opportunity, which are plays that come after a team has made a first down within in the 40-yard line. So while they weren’t consistent performers in the red zone on a play-to-play basis, they were at least good at limiting opportunities for points.

How they can get better in 2018: Atlanta could stand to improve against slot receivers, tight ends, and running backs on passing downs in the red zone. Jimmy Graham, Jarvis Landry, Tarik Cohen, James White, and Christian McCaffrey were a few of the players who gave Atlanta the most trouble in the red zone last season. They’ll face a big test with Zach Ertz in Week 1.

Philadelphia will be starting Nick Foles over Carson Wentz for the season opener, but even with Wentz last year the Eagles were all over the place in the red zone. They led the league in turnover rate inside the 10-yard line with zero turnovers, but based on success rate, they struggled to move the ball inside the red zone.

Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive red zone performance

The Eagles were undoubtedly one of the best offensive teams in the NFL. They ranked second in points per scoring opportunity, third in third-and-long success rate, and seventh in marginal explosiveness, but they got jammed up the closer they moved to the goal line. And that was with a stalwart offensive line featuring Jason Peters, Jason Kelce, Brandon Brooks, and Lane Johnson and a strong group of running backs led by Jay Ajayi.

This is a team that should be better at moving the ball in the red zone, but they haven’t been consistent at doing that. For what it’s worth, they were able to score a touchdown in the red zone against the Falcons in the playoffs with Foles at quarterback.

How they can get better in 2018: Like the Falcons, they should spread the ball around to players who can produce in the red zone. Feeding Zach Ertz is always a sound strategy in the red zone, but Nelson Agholor was close behind. Agholor caught 13 of his 18 targets for four touchdowns and seven first downs. Those numbers aren’t as gaudy as Ertz’s eight touchdowns on 17 targets, but they’re still impressive in their own right.

Both the Eagles and Falcons will need to be more effective in the red zone to increase their chances for success this year. Their struggles mirror each other in certain ways — they’re both too talented to be underachieving like this in the most critical area of the field. Thursday will provide a first glimpse at each team’s red zone performance — and hopeful progress — for the 2018 season.