Rams open as favorites over Patriots for Super Bowl 53, but line moves right out of the gate

The Patriots won a wild one over the Chiefs to set up an intriguing Super Bowl 53 matchup. It marks a rematch of the Super Bowl 36 game that saw the Patriots launch their current dynasty. That one featured a young Tom Brady launching his Hall of Fame career into the stratosphere. Will we see the reverse in two weeks with Jared Goff?

The Rams opened as a one-point favorite over the Patriots, but we have seen quick line movement out of the gate. It has quickly swung to New England, going as high as Patriots -2 Sunday evening.

The point total was installed at 57.5, but quickly climbed to 58.5 The former number matched the record point total set before Super Bowl 51 between the Patriots and Falcons, and this new number sets a new record for the time being.

The Rams stunned the Saints in overtime to advance to Super Bowl 53. Rams fans will never forget Greg Zuerlein’s 57-yard game-winning field goal, while Saints fans will never forget the missed defensive pass interference call in the final two minutes. The Saints were all but assured of winning if that flag gets thrown, but alas....

The Chiefs and Patriots are kicking off as we speak, but we already have preliminary Super Bowl 53 odds for both potential matchups. The oddsmakers at Betonline.ag have installed the Rams as a three-point favorite over the Patriots, with a point total of 57.5. They have installed the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite over the Chiefs, with a point total of 61.

We’ll get adjustments to Super Bowl 53 odds throughout the day, but Betonline.ag is offering early point spreads and point totals for all four possible matchups. Chiefs-Rams is the only game where the NFC team is not favored. It opened at Chiefs -1, but some quick money swung it to pick ‘em. Looking at the AFC vs. NFC odds below, if you think the Chiefs are a sure thing to beat the Patriots, there’s some early value betting the point total for AFC vs. NFC.

Patriots vs. Rams
Spread: Rams -1.5
Point total: 56

Chiefs vs. Rams
Spread: pick ‘em
Point total: 60

Patriots vs. Saints
Spread: Saints -2.5
Point total: 57

Chiefs vs. Saints
Spread: Saints -1.5
Point total: 59.5

The NFC and AFC Championship games take place Sunday afternoon, but even before the Super Bowl 53 matchup is set, you can bet on either of the conferences. Betonline.ag has posted initial AFC vs. NFC odds and has the NFC installed as a 1.5 point favorite. The early point total is set at 58.5 points.

There would have been some potential value with more chance of upsets earlier in the playoffs, but with the top four seeds advancing, I would not anticipate a ton of value on the line. The four possible matchups are Chiefs vs. Saints, Chiefs vs. Rams, Patriots vs. Saints, and Patriots vs. Rams.

Through the first 52 Super Bowls, the NFC has a 27-25 edge straight up and is 27-23-2 against the spread. Last year’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots saw the four-point underdog Eagles win outright. Underdogs have covered 13 of the past 17 Super Bowls, and ten of those saw the underdog win outright. This year’s game is trending to have the closest point spread since Super Bowl 49, when the line was either Seahawks -1 or pick ‘em, depending on your sportsbook of choice.

The point total has gone over 27 times and under 24 times, with no point total installed for Super Bowl 1. In last year’s game, the over hit on the 57 point total, marking the seventh time in the past ten years the over hit. If the generic AFC-NFC point total holds, it would surpass the 57 point total leading up to Patriots-Falcons and Saints-Colts as the highest point total installed in Super Bowl history. Prior to this year, there have been ten Super Bowls with a point total of 50 or higher. The final score has gone under in six of those games.