Ranking all 7 teams still fighting for the AFC’s second wild card spot

The top end of the AFC playoff bracket is falling into place. The Ravens are guaranteed a postseason berth and cruising toward homefield advantage. The Chiefs won the AFC West thanks in part to Patrick Mahomes’ first win over the Patriots in Week 14. New England and Buffalo, currently battling it out in the East, haven’t clinched spots yet but both look like talented-but-flawed contenders.

That likely leaves two playoff slots remaining with seven teams battling to fill them. The AFC South race has been whittled down to three teams thanks to the Texans’ occasional (but inconsistent) greatness and the Titans’ sudden surge under a resplendent Ryan Tannehill. The Colts, despite a sudden cold snap, have an outside shot at the crown as well.

The loser(s) of the South’s title race will still have a plan B on which they can fall back; the AFC’s second wild card spot. With either the Patriots or Bills likely to earn the No. 5 seed this winter, the final spot in the league’s postseason remains up for grabs. Seven teams are still technically alive in that playoff race, but there are three clear frontrunners — Pittsburgh, Houston, and Tennessee — in what promises to be a stirring end to 2019.

So, knowing what we know after 14 weeks of the regular season, who is in the best position to earn that final playoff spot and begin their path to the Super Bowl as the AFC’s biggest underdog? Here’s how the wild card race looks with three games remaining.

Remaining games:

Pittsburgh is currently in the driver’s seat for the final spot in the AFC side of the playoffs. Staying there won’t be easy — but the Steelers have played all of 2019 on hard mode anyway.

The club has weathered losses across the board, starting with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who made just two starts before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. Injuries have also claimed significant playing time from starters like James Conner (five games), JuJu Smith-Schuster (three games), and Stephon Tuitt (placed on injured reserve after six games).

T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Bud Dupree have developed into one of the league’s top pass rushing triumvirates, notching 30 sacks and 60 quarterback hits between them — more than 10 entire teams so far this season. Minkah Fitzpatrick has been a revelation in the defensive backfield, coming up with seven turnovers (five INTs, two fumbles) in his 11 games with the team. As a result, that group has allowed just 16 points per game over the course of its recent 7-1 streak.

That’s given enough space for an overtaxed offense to do just enough to win — every one of those seven victories came by seven points or fewer. There’s hope for an offensive rebound as the season wears down, however. Mason Rudolph’s lackluster play has given way to undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges, who has been an efficient replacement (71.2 percent completion rate, 103.2 passer rating) in his stead. Conner and Smith-Schuster could both return for the postseason, making the Steelers a bit of a ... sigh, wild card in the wild card race this winter.

Wild card odds: 55 percent. Pittsburgh’s been great at overcoming a stacked deck, but the Steelers have two tough games remaining. The Bills defense will be the most difficult challenge of Hodges’ young career, while that looming Ravens game — assuming Baltimore doesn’t rest its starters in the season finale — would be a replay of a game Pittsburgh (with Rudolph at QB) lost in overtime at home back in October.

Remaining games:

The Titans benched Marcus Mariota after a 2-4 start, then bore witness as Ryan Tannehill — freed from the Dolphins rebuild last spring for a Day 3 draft selection — became the league’s most efficient quarterback over his next seven starts. That’s vaulted Tennessee from a potential top-10 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft to a tie with the Texans atop the AFC South.

Unfortunately for the Titans, they’ve saved the toughest part of their 2019 schedule for last. No team in the AFC faces a lineup with a better winning percentage (.667) over the last three weeks of the season than Tennessee. The good news is that sweeping Houston will ensure the South title regardless of the Week 16 result against the Saints. That’s no easy task; the Titans haven’t beaten the Texans twice in the same season since 2007.

All signs point to regression coming from both Tannehill and an overclocked defense, but the grinding power of Derrick Henry appears here to stay. The bulldozing, game-breaking tailback has only gotten stronger has the season has worn on and his carries have increased. He could be a clock-grinding weapon if Tannehill can punch the Titans out to early leads against high-powered opponents this winter — and that could help carry Tennessee to its second postseason bid in three years.

AFC South title odds: 33 percent.

Wild card odds: 20 percent. The Titans are more likely to steal an AFC South title than slide into the sixth seed in the playoffs. There are no gimmes left on Tennessee’s schedule, but if this team truly is the rocketship Tannehill’s made it out to be, a strong finish shouldn’t be a problem for the league leader in passer rating.

Remaining games:

Houston lost its margin of error in the AFC South race when it was trounced by Drew Lock and the Broncos in Week 14. Now the Texans will have to at least split their season-ending series with the Titans to claim the division crown.

That will put Deshaun Watson and his low-key MVP campaign to the test. The third-year quarterback has 32 total touchdowns (24 passing, seven rushing, and one receiving) through 13 games while staking his claim as the AFC’s top non-Lamar Jackson QB. He’s not going to hold Houston back in its run to the postseason, but a leaky, inconsistent defense might.

The Texans have allowed 30 points or more in each of their last three losses. Their 5.9 yards allowed per play rank 27th in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have put up a 101.7 passer rating — nearly a full point higher than Watson’s 2019 rating! — this fall.

That’s going to create plenty of possibilities for the big play passers remaining on the team’s schedule. Tannehill and Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston have averaged 13.4 and 13.1 yards per completion this season, ranking first and third, respectively, in the league. That means Watson might have to win some shootouts to get Houston to the postseason for the fourth time in five years.

AFC South title odds: 66 percent.

Wild card odds: 15 percent. Like the Titans, the South title is a more likely (and desirable) path to the postseason than the wild card slot. Two wins will get them there, and they have the easier remaining schedule than Tennessee.

Remaining games:

The Browns came into 2019 as AFC North favorites, then crumbled to pieces despite having their most talented roster in more than a decade. Baker Mayfield has improved as the season has gone on to lift his team up from a 2-6 record at the halfway point, but he’s still failed to live up to expectations in his second season as a pro.

Cleveland likely needs a perfect record to remain in playoff contention — though a win over the Bengals in Week 17 means they’d hold a tiebreaker over the Steelers if they both finished at 8-8. Games against Arizona and Cincinnati are winnable, but that Week 16 showdown against Jackson and the Ravens is a problem. Though the club holds a 40-25 Week 4 road win over their AFC North rival, it was that loss for the Ravens that sparked a nine-game winning streak and a run to the top of the conference.

The Browns were dealt a brutal schedule — six of their seven losses have come against teams with 8-5 records or better — but haven’t showcased the kind of consistency needed to be taken seriously as a playoff team. Winning out without the services of Myles Garrett (suspended indefinitely after hitting Mason Rudolph with his own helmet) would be an accomplishment for Cleveland ... and it might not be enough to overcome another putrid start in northeast Ohio.

Wild card odds: 5 percent. They’re two games out of the primary wild card race with three games to play. It would be an extremely Browns ending if the team rallied to a 9-7 finish only to be eliminated from the postseason in Week 17.

Remaining games:

Oakland’s early-season magic has worn off. A three-game losing streak has ceded the Raiders’ spot in the postseason to the Steelers. Now Jon Gruden’s team is fourth in line for the AFC’s last wild card bid.

While a playoff bid is unlikely, there’s plenty of runway for Gruden’s rebuild to end with a winning record in his second year at the helm. None of the final three teams on his schedule have more than five wins. While the Raiders have lost to bad teams before — see Week 12’s 34-3 pantsing at the hands of the Jets — there’s a very good chance the Raiders make their last season in Oakland a winning one.

Wild card odds: 3 percent. A winning season probably won’t end in the playoffs, but it’ll give fans in Las Vegas a reason to be excited for their newfound stolen property (sorry, city of Oakland). That was 2019’s primary goal for the Raiders all along.

Remaining games:

The Colts were 5-2 after Week 8. Then the spiral hit.

Jacoby Brissett’s Week 9 knee injury set off a chain reaction that’s pushed Indianapolis to the back of the playoff race thanks to a 1-5 record. Four of those losses have come by four points or fewer. The only win in that span was over a hapless Jaguars team.

Like Oakland, 2019’s hot start masked several of the team’s flaws. Andrew Luck’s surprising retirement turned the reins over to Brissett to begin the season. The former backup has been better than expected, but he’s also be severely limited by awful injury luck. Aside from his own knee sprain, he’s seen various maladies take away targets like T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, Devin Funchess, and Parris Campbell for extended stretches. In Week 13, his top wideouts were Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson, and Brissett *still* managed to throw for 319 yards (on 40 attempts).

Like Oakland, there’s some value to the moral victory of a .500 record or better, even if the club’s postseason dreams have slipped away. Luck’s departure set low expectations for 2019, but Brissett’s performance, even through adversity, creates the hope Indianapolis won’t need a teardown in order to contend again.

AFC South title odds: 1 percent.

Wild card odds: 2 percent. This looks like an 8-8 finish. That’d be a four-game improvement on the last time Brissett was thrust into a starting role for the Colts.

Remaining games:

Denver is still technically in the postseason race, though it will need to win its last three games while the Steelers and one of the Titans or Texans to lose out just to have a prayer. That’s extremely unlikely, but so was rookie Drew Lock taking over a 3-8 team, winning his first two starts, and recording a 114.4 passer rating in the process.

Wild card odds: Less than 1 percent