NFL Panic Index 2019: Oh great, the Patriots look like the Patriots again, right before the playoffs

There were several cracks in New England’s facade this season. Sure, the Patriots are 12-3 — and, barring a meltdown against Miami, will likely finish 13-3 with the No. 2 seed in the AFC. But they didn’t exactly piece together a mind-blowing resume. Coming into Week 16, they’d only beaten two teams currently slated to make the playoffs: the Bills and the Eagles.

All three of their losses came to the AFC’s other division champions, and a slip on Saturday would threaten their iron grip on the East as well. When Josh Allen threw his Buffalo team to a fourth-quarter lead in Foxborough, it looked as though a changing of the guard could be on the horizon.

Then the Patriots remembered themselves. Tom Brady had gone the entire season without a fourth-quarter comeback after his efforts against the Texans, Chiefs, and Ravens all fell short. He ended that slump Saturday. He led his team 77 yards to cut the Bills’ lead to one point early in the quarter, then marched 59 yards for what would be the game-winning touchdown (and two-point conversion) that snuffed out Buffalo’s hopes of anything more than a wild card bid.

That fourth quarter was an encapsulation of what makes the Patriots a lasting threat in the postseason. A smothering defense? Check. The Bills failed to score and went three-and-out on two of their last three drives. Unheralded role players making big plays? Double check. There was Adam Butler creating the havoc that led to a backbreaking third-and-goal sack that ruined Buffalo’s comeback, and Rex Burkhead being un-damn-deniable at the goal line.

Solid quarterbacking? Check. Brady went 5 of 5 for 84 yards and converted one vital third down QB sneak in his last two meaningful drives, turning a four-point deficit into a seven-point win. Those are three very Bill Belichick ingredients for a long playoff run — and all three were in full supply against a good Buffalo team.

And that could be bad news for anyone hoping we’d get a break from the Patriots come Super Bowl time.

Panic index: Defense wins championships, but the Patriots still need Brady to find an extra gear if they’re going to overcome the Chiefs, Ravens, or whomever reigns supreme in the NFC. Brady’s passer rating last year dropped from 97.7 in the regular season to 85.8 in the playoffs — though it did end in a Super Bowl victory. A similar drop this winter would make him the rough equivalent of late-stage Jay Cutler. Can he avoid another postseason decline without Rob Gronkowski to serve as his safety net?

Coming into Sunday, the Ravens had already locked up the AFC North and the Bills had earned the No. 5 seed in the AFC. However, the Steelers were still the favorites to earn the second wild card spot. All they needed to do was beat the teams in front of them.

Given that those teams were the hapless Jets in Week 16 and the going-to-be-resting-starters Ravens in Week 17, the sixth seed in the AFC was a realistic goal for the Steelers. Then they screwed things up in a poor showing and lost to the Jets, 16-10. While Pittsburgh is not eliminated from playoff contention, the Steelers have certainly squandered their easy path by taking control out of their hands.

That’s because the Steelers, at 8-7, now need to beat the Ravens and they also need the 8-7 Titans to lose to the AFC South champion Texans in Week 17.

And it’s very similar to what happened a year ago.

Last season, the Steelers were playing a much tougher team than the Jets in the second-to-last game: the Saints, who ended up with the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But the Steelers were poised to win the game with a lead in the fourth quarter. So what happened? They attempted a fake punt, and Drew Brees marched down the field for the go-ahead score.

The Saints won that game, forcing the Steelers into a situation where they needed to win against the Bengals the following week while also needing the Browns to beat the Ravens. They got their win, but the Browns failed to beat Baltimore, and Pittsburgh missed the playoffs.

Panic index: Even though the Ravens are resting their starters, it won’t be an easy game for the Steelers. Their defense is elite, but their quarterback situation is now Duck Hodges (six interceptions in the last two games) and Paxton Lynch (a former first-round pick you forgot existed).

But even if Pittsburgh does get by RG3 and company, they also have to count on the Texans, who have clinched, to beat the Titans for the second time in three weeks. Once again, the Steelers have made things much harder for themselves down the stretch with a bad performance in Week 16 — not to mention their missteps at the backup quarterback position.

It’s not that big of a deal that the Seahawks lost to the Cardinals in Week 16. It doesn’t really affect the playoff race, as their Week 17 game against the 49ers will determine the winner of the NFC West and one of the top seeds in the conference. That would have been the case even if the Seahawks won.

The issue, though, is that the Seahawks are getting hurt at the worst time. And at crucial positions.

Russell Wilson’s top two running backs going into Week 16 — Chris Carson (hip) and C.J. Prosise (arm) — are done for the year. Rashaad Penny was already out for the season with an ACL injury.

That means that from now through the postseason, the Seahawks will be relying on rookie Travis Homer, 30-year-old Robert Turbin (who hasn’t played in an NFL game in more than a year), and 33-year-old Marshawn Lynch (which is awesome, even if he too hasn’t played in more than a year).

Now to the even bigger concern, especially with a matchup coming against the 49ers’ defensive front of Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Nick Bosa: offensive line injuries. The Seahawks are already rolling with backup center Joey Hunt, but now they’re looking at life without left tackle Duane Brown, too.

Brown needs surgery and will sit out Week 17, and he could potentially miss some playoff games.

Panic index: It’s worth noting that the 49ers are also fairly banged up, including injuries to Richard Sherman and pass rusher Dee Ford. But Seattle will still be facing a fierce defensive front that essentially only has to focus on stopping Russell Wilson. That’s a scary prospect.

The Seahawks are in the playoffs regardless, but things could be dicey against the 49ers in a pivotal game that will decide which team gets a chance to heal up with a bye week, and which will have to go on the road during the first weekend of January.

Daniel Jones got a win for the first time since September by beating Washington in overtime. He threw for 352 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 41-35 shootout.

That’s a positive sign for the future, because Jones’ fumbling issues were starting to cause serious concern. He avoided turnovers against Washington and got a win.

HOWEVER, the win could also prove costly. By improving to 4-11 on the year, New York slid to fourth in the 2020 NFL Draft order. Washington climbed to No. 2 by falling to 3-12. That could still change, but there’s only one week left. While the Giants can still get the No. 2 pick, that’d require wins for Washington and Detroit in Week 17.

The likeliest scenario is that Washington will lock up the second pick behind the Bengals by losing to the Cowboys. And that probably means Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young will be a pain in Jones’ ass soon.

Young was a rare defensive Heisman Trophy finalist after notching 16.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss in 11 games for the Buckeyes. He’s a big reason why Ohio State is in the College Football Playoff and is set to play Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Bengals probably want to draft a quarterback to take the reins from Andy Dalton, and LSU’s Joe Burrow looks like just the guy for the job. That’ll drop Young — the best pass-rushing prospect in years — to whichever team is lucky enough to pick second overall. The Giants just handed that mantle to Washington.

Panic index: There are no guarantees when it comes to the NFL Draft. There are plenty of top-five picks who never panned out. Even if Washington does wind up with Young, it doesn’t necessarily mean disaster for New York. The Giants’ long-term future depends much more on the success of Jones, and they saw serious progress in Week 16.

Still, adding Young to the New York defensive line sure would’ve been nice.

Philadelphia put itself in the driver’s seat for the NFC East title with Sunday’s 17-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles will clinch the division and go to the playoffs as long as they can defeat the Giants in Week 17. That might be easier said than done, however.

The last time these two met in Week 14, Philly needed overtime to beat the Giants on the road, 23-17. That was Eli Manning’s first game back since early in the season, and he threw for 203 yards and two touchdowns that helped give his team a 17-0 halftime lead.

The Giants have captured some late-season momentum, too. They’re currently on a two-game win streak with back-to-back victories over the Dolphins and Washington. Pat Shurmur went back to Daniel Jones, who had been dealing with a high ankle sprain, last week. Jones looked better than ever, becoming only the third rookie in NFL history to have three games with at least four passing touchdowns.

It doesn’t seem like there is any bad blood between the two quarterbacks whatsoever, judging by their game of flip cup that’s been making the rounds on social media:

(This video is perfect, and we cannot stop watching Eli throw perfect napkin spirals, help.)

Speaking of positives for the Giants, running back Saquon Barkley is looking like himself too. In his last two outings, he’s rushed for a combined 301 yards and three touchdowns, including a season-high 189 yards against Washington.

The Eagles can’t take the Giants lightly.

Panic index: Yes, Philadelphia has looked good the last three weeks in defeating the Giants, Washington, and the Cowboys, and it’s doing everything it needs to get into the playoffs. The Eagles are favored and should win in New York. But if they don’t play as sharp as they have been, the Giants could take away Philly’s playoffs hopes — assuming Dallas can also beat Washington, that is.