Ask a former NFL player: Is the latest version of Mitchell Trubisky for real or a fluke?

Welcome to the Friday mailbag, Week 14 edition. It’s been a busy past few days. Ron Rivera was fired in Carolina, while things aren’t looking good for Jason Garrett after the Cowboys lost again on Thursday night, this time on the road to the Bears.

We got some awesome questions as usual, so thanks for that. Please don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter or Instagram if you have questions for next time.

This week, we’ll start with some recent developments in the NFL and then end with possibly my favorite question I’ve gotten so far.

Has Mitchell Trubisky really turned a corner, or are his latest performances a fluke? —@cater123

No, no he hasn’t. I know we love to get excited about recent performances because we are a reactionary culture, but that’s not me. I tell y’all how it is, even if it’s not happy news. And while Trubisky has played better of late, he hasn’t even played up to his levels from last season.

Here’s a good tweet showing his EPA from this year to last:

He’s barely been above replacement this season, and using a two-game sample size against the miserable Lions and the half-ass Cowboys is a bad faith argument for his future success.

Some of his better play the last two weeks is on coach Matt Nagy, who’s been dialing up quicker passes where Trubisky doesn’t have to think as much. Also, using his legs more often is a huge plus for Trubisky, who is able to run well.

All of this makes the offense look competent lately but remember, we need to look at the schedule as well. The Bears beat the Lions (definitely not a defensive juggernaut) and a lifeless Cowboys team. Next, they get the Packers, Chiefs, and Vikings to finish out the season. We will know more after those games, but I don’t think it goes well.

If you’re a Bears fan, do you want Trubisky to play well? If he plays well, the Bears are likely to be more excited about picking up his fifth-year option, which would be a mistake. It’s rare for quarterbacks to be below replacement over their first two starting seasons and then turn into an elite player. And guess what? Trubisky was drafted second overall. He SHOULD be elite.

We often don’t take into account where a player was drafted when we evaluate them. Is it Trubisky’s fault these are the expectations? Nope, but that’s what happens when you’re drafted that high. So that’s how Trubisky should be graded. Just being “OK” or average isn’t good enough.

Where would you like to see Ron Rivera coach next? — @bearsforfears

I don’t think Rivera would ever take this gig, but I’d love to see him in Cleveland. The Browns are super talented, but they need an adult leading them, not a coach who’s wearing T-shirts mocking his division rivals.

Rivera, as he stated in his farewell press conference, often had to be the public relations arm for the Panthers during some of the controversies they’ve had. The owner never spoke and the general manager rarely did. And the team stayed together, played hard, and won games. Rivera knows how to manage a wide range of personalities, and he connects with this players because he’s a former one. He’d bring some much-needed discipline to the Browns.

It’s fourth-and-3 at midfield with $1 million on the line? What’s your play and 2019 team to run it? — @JDB_219

Oh my, what a question. I love it. Thank you. And there’s so much to discuss here, and I’m going to expand on this a bit to discuss my favorite plays in general.

I think the easy answer right now would be some RPO-type play with Lamar Jackson on the edge. No one can tackle him. And if they try, you’d hope he can hit the “pass” option for a first down. I love plays with multiple options.

But to expand on this question, three plays come to mind that I’d use in this situation, assuming you have the personnel to make it happen. The first play I’d use is mesh or mesh sit. It’s an excellent play against man coverage, as the slot receivers crossing near each other could knock off potential man defenders. Or, if it’s zone, they just sit in the hole. I love the addition of the running back against man coverage.

The second is “Hoss Y Juke,” a favorite play of the New England Patriots. It’s an awesome concept and has answers for everything. Plus, it spreads out the defense and you can see the entire picture before the snap.

What makes this play so versatile is you don’t need to have the tight end in the slot to make it happen. You can stay in base personnel, flex the tight end out wide, put your best WR in the slot, and get a great mismatch. Look at how the Patriots used this in last year’s Super Bowl:

The Pats threw to Julian Edelman on the first play, followed by a hitch to the RB against man coverage on the second. On the third, they hit the seam against single high. Amazing.

The third one I’d pick is for the 49ers to run the Y throwback play. You’d need some big stones to call this for $1 million and would need to make sure there’s no pressure by the defense on this play or the QB won’t have the time. But it’s almost always open and always catch for a long gain.