NBA free agency begins Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Everything is wildly chaotic in the league right now: every prospective title contender has legitimate questions that must be resolved before we have any sense as to the pecking order going forward. Part of that is an obvious consequence from having a number of All-NBA stars with real flight risks. When the best players move around, the landscape shifts.
The 5 biggest questions of NBA free agency 2019
Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant are the big fish, but what other keys should we be watching?
But the apparent hobbling of the Warriors dynasty and the lack of an obvious successor leaves everything feels especially uncertain. Amid that unsettled horizon, here are the five biggest questions we have entering NBA free agency.
1. How does Kevin Durant figure into all of this?
Kevin Durant probably won’t play next season after a ruptured Achilles injury in the NBA Finals, yet his summer decision casts an enormous shadow over the entire league. Durant signing a new multi-year deal with the Warriors could force Golden State to say goodbye to Klay Thompson (also a free agent) or Draymond Green. If Durant signs with another team, whether solo or as a package deal with Kyrie Irving or anyone else, that team will shoot up the 2020-21 rankings with a gap year to bide their time.
This was already a really strange situation. Because of the injury, it’s stranger than we could have imagined even back in November, when Green was getting suspended for screaming at Durant about his free agency flirtations. Durant’s decision won’t have as many immediate title implications as the next question on this list, but it will frame the next era of NBA basketball to some extent. That’s wild given Durant’s expected unavailability for next season.
2. Where will Kawhi Leonard land?
Kawhi has not committed one electron toward Toronto, which would normally be concerning, but Toronto is still a little buzzed, thank you very much. If Kawhi remains, the Raptors will be the favorite to repeat in the East, if not in the entire NBA. If Kawhi leaves, the Raptors are likely looking at a zombie season and then quite possibly a painful rebuild coming off a title. It’s shockingly binary.
If Kawhi chooses the Clippers, L.A.’s wicked step-franchise immediately floats to the cream of the West and becomes a potential title threat.
If Kawhi chooses the Lakers, that team becomes the prohibitive championship favorite.
If Kawhi chooses the Sixers, that team becomes the prohibitive championship favorite.
If Kawhi chooses the Nets, someone better turn the defroster on in Hell, because the Nets are not supposed to be a franchise that gets stars like this in free agency.
If Kawhi chooses the Knicks, we are clearly living in a simulation. A hellish, hellish simulation.
Whichever way this shakes, it’s going to create some aftershocks.
3. Will teams learn anything from 2016?
Many wise analysts have reminded us of the last time this many NBA teams had this much salary cap space: the troubling summer of 2016, when too many franchises made bad, bad contract mistakes. Those mistakes are still being traded around! Is there any greater cautionary tale than Kent Bazemore getting traded for Evan Turner days before free agency begins? Are the Wizards secretly working on a Ian Mahinmi for Hassan Whiteside deal with the Heat?
Here’s the thing: NBA teams don’t usually learn from mistakes. Or, the teams that will make the mistakes next week and beyond are different than the teams that made mistakes in 2016. Or, teams won’t think that investing in Player X is a mistake because Player X is pretty good or has some upside, and only in retrospect will it be obvious that Player X had no business soaking up $12 million or $20 million or $35 million of salary cap pace each season for four years. Or, Player X will get injured and never really recover, an unknowable risk teams face.
But scared money don’t make no money, and that salary cap space has to be spent on somebody. Choose wisely and kiss Lady Luck.
4. Can the Lakers add real talent alongside LeBron and Anthony Davis?
There’s an ongoing debate about whether the Lakers should be chasing a high-end player to add to the LeBron James-Anthony Davis duo, or whether they should parcel out their remaining cap space to as many capable players as possible. The team no longer has any trade assets after spending them all on Davis, and it doesn’t sound like the Lakers will be able to open up a full veteran maximum contract slot. Frankly, we don’t know whether L.A. can pick up a second- or third-tier starter to slot in even if it wanted one.
The answer to this question could very well determine whether LeBron, the greatest player of his generation, competes for another championship or is on a merely good team next season. No pressure.
5. What team will pull off the shocking coup of the summer?
Two years ago, it was the Oklahoma City Thunder trading for Paul George in June and the Boston Celtics trading for Kyrie Irving in August that set the NBA on its ear. Last summer, it was the Lakers landing LeBron and the Raptors stealing Kawhi. While L.A. wasn’t a huge shocker, the other three teams making that level of MVP-caliber acquisition out of the blue changed everything, even in already chaotic situations.
The NBA offseason has already been chaotic, and figures to be even moreso as dominoes continue to fall. Amid that, something will stun us. A team we aren’t expecting to be in the mix will insert themselves and pull off something that radically reworks how we think about their future prospects. Maybe, like Toronto, they’ll make a move that leads to a championship.
But who?
