Why the timing of the Anthony Davis trade affects everything else in the NBA

It’s only a matter of time before the Pelicans trade Anthony Davis. But that matter of time is everything.

Davis recently met with new Pelicans front office chief David Griffin, and all reports suggest that Davis still has no intention of signing a long-term extension to remain in New Orleans beyond the 2019-20 season. As such, Griffin will need to trade Davis at some point between now and the February 2020 trade deadline to ensure he doesn’t lose a generational talent for nothing.

With Zion Williamson coming to the Pelicans via the No. 1 pick that New Orleans were fortunate enough to nab, resolving this situation before the next new generational star arrives seems wise for team culture and morale reasons. Zion looks like a wise young man and Davis is a professional, but there’s no sense in opening the new guy up to potential contamination from the disgruntled outgoing star.

So that means the Pelicans will almost assuredly trade Davis this summer. But when?

Trade season unofficially starts once the NBA Finals end and runs through the point at which all the major pieces in play have come to rest, either in mid-July or deep into August. There’s a ramp-up just before the NBA Draft and again on June 29 and 30, right before and into free agency. Trade season then unofficially reopens in mid-December when players signed as free agents in the summer are eligible to be traded.

As you are aware, there are a bunch of high-end free agents up for grabs this summer, including Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, and Kemba Walker. There are also several glamour teams with oodles of cap space and mandates to make a splash, including the Lakers and Knicks. Those two teams and a host of other high-profile franchises are in the mix for Davis. Let’s play out two timing scenarios to see how they affect all these teams.

If New Orleans makes quick progress sifting through the offers in the run-up to the NBA Draft, that really affects the landscape for those top free agents. For instance, if the Lakers trade their cache of young players and picks for Davis on draft night, they’ll be pressing for the right wing fit in free agency (and probably a point guard, since Lonzo Ball would be involved in the deal).

If, say, the Knicks lose out on a Davis trade, you wonder how that would affect their famous chase of Durant and Irving. If a dark horse like the Nets or Clippers manage to convince the Pelicans to trade Davis to them, that could set off a panic among the other suitors, and an additional avalanche of pre-July trades could be set in motion.

If the Celtics lose out on Davis, will they just give up on keeping Irving and refocus attention on their young core (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown)? Or, will they make an over-the-top winning offer for Davis in June, knowing that’s the best way to keep Irving and compete for a title in 2020?

Then you have all of the draft pick related impacts of a Davis trade. One imagines Griffin will be seeking short- and long-term draft considerations in a Davis deal. Depending on where those picks land in 2019 — the Knicks and Lakers both have top-5 picks — that could set off a domino effect of impacts for all the other teams picking in the top 10. The uncertainty could sweep up teams targeting a player they are concerned the Pels will grab, and could lead to rash trade-ups.

Things get very messy very quickly if the Pelicans indicate they are planning to trade Davis by the end of the draft, and messier still if they actually do it.

One could see a bit of paralysis set in if Griffin and the Pelicans instead hold off until the start of free agency to take Davis trade offers seriously.

There is real advantage to the Pelicans waiting. There are only so many top-tier free agents, and with so many teams chasing them, someone is going to miss out. That team is probably going to be desperate (especially if it’s the Lakers). New Orleans could end up getting their best offers by desperate teams in the second week of July.

But what if some number of the top free agents, all of whom are hunting championships, wait for the Davis shoe to drop before making decisions? It doesn’t seem like Durant or Leonard will wait for anyone — KD is a superstar force who appears to want to write his own story in any case, and the idea that Kawhi actually pays attention to off-court machinations is surreal to consider. But you could definitely imagine Kyrie or DeMarcus Cousins or even Butler holding off on making a commitment until the Davis matter is resolved. You can imagine the Lakers, Celtics, and Knicks being caught in a state of fugue while negotiating. Really, Griffin could lead these teams closer to panic as the long hot hours of July tick by. Any panic for those teams should mean better offers for New Orleans.

The big disadvantage of waiting into July for the Pelicans is that they wouldn’t be able to pick who they want if 2019 draft picks are involved. This is why we’re more likely to see superstar trades on draft night than in July. There may also be some financial considerations that advantage making a deal before the current NBA season officially ends June 30.

Also, uncertainty is stressful, and trading a generational superstar is stressful and for most people ending the saga sooner rather than later would be preferred. We’re not sure if Griffin is one of those types of people or whether being the center of it all outweighs the anxiety.

In the end, the benefits to the Pelicans of trading Davis on early side seem to outweigh the potential upside of waiting until July. As long as suitors come correct with good offers, taking a deal in the run-up to or during the NBA draft will allow Griffin to pick the prospect he wants to pair with Zion and move on to the next era of Pelicans basketball. Further, given the mass uncertainty already baked into this free agency session, the teams seriously in play for Davis should be willing to make strong offers from the top given the positive free agency related knock-on effects landing Davis would have.

Davis should be on his new team by the end of June 20.