The Calais Campbell trade is the Jaguars’ white flag (and the Ravens’ gain)

The Jaguars rebuild is on.

It started in the middle of the 2019 season when Jacksonville traded Jalen Ramsey to the Rams. It continued when the club shipped A.J. Bouye to the Broncos on March 3. It jumped into overdrive Sunday when Calais Campbell, a Pro Bowler in five of the past six seasons, was traded to the Baltimore Ravens for the minimal cost of a fifth-round draft choice.

The move makes Jacksonville’s 2020 intention unmistakable. Two-plus years after scraping the surface of Super Bowl 52, the Jags are demolishing the house they built and tearing through the finished basement in an attempt to pour a new foundation. These were the Pro Bowlers and All-Pros from Jacksonville’s 2017 run to the AFC Championship Game:

With the exception of Campbell, none of these players were older than 27 years old that fall. This was a group that looked built to last. Instead, this is who remains on the roster at the precipice of the 2020 offseason:

Trading away Campbell wasn’t just a business transaction; it was a message. The veteran defensive end was the unquestioned leader of the Jaguars’ locker room the past three seasons. This move closes the door on that era (and the lingering final hope that 2017 team was still salvageable). It creates a vacuum that will either allow another young veteran to step up or leave the team rudderless in the near future.

The unfortunate part is this sell-off hasn’t created the kind of salary cap space that would facilitate a quick turnaround. Even with Campbell headed north, the Jaguars would have only around $31 million in cap space to play with this offseason. Clearing out the last piece of 2017’s Pro Bowl puzzle and dealing Ngakoue would push that to nearly $50 million. That’s a decent chunk of cash, but not even a top-15 number among NFL franchises this offseason.

But there’s a good chance Jacksonville has no real interest in spending in hopes of a 2020 revival. The team just dealt away one of the most effective players from a defense that ranked 29th in the NFL in overall efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Its offense, rarely a strong point this past decade, rated 24th-best in that same metric.

No one’s quite sure who the starting quarterback will be. Nick Foles went 0-4 as a starter before being benched, but that was still somehow enough to convince the Bears to trade for him and his albatross of a contract. His replacement, Gardner Minshew, was a sixth-round rookie who was steadily figured out by evolving secondaries as the season went on.

It makes sense to wait. This year’s cap hell could give way to more than $100 million in spending room in 2021, especially after the Foles deal. The Jags could use their pending spot at the top of next year’s draft order to target his replacement — Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence could be the balm in Gilead for a team that’s been wandering the desert for so, so long.

The team’s biggest young bright spot, edge rusher Josh Allen, just wrapped up a strong rookie season and will be under team contract at a bargain price for, at a minimum, the next three seasons. Other foundational pieces like Myles Jack, D.J. Chark, and (maybe) Taven Bryan are all under contract post-2021. They can be patient — as long as the Jags doesn’t alienate them like it did with Ramsey.

There are reasons to be concerned they could bungle all this. General manager Dave Caldwell was hired in 2013. In his seven seasons on the job he’s seen one trip to the postseason and six years with six wins or fewer. He couldn’t capitalize on that 2017 momentum ... should he be trusted with another do-over when it comes to rebuilding the Jags? If the club is committed to a fresh start up and down the roster, should that also apply to the front office — especially after former executive vice president Tom Coughlin’s ouster?

Jacksonville’s offseason isn’t about setting the table for 2020. The Jaguars are effectively letting the chips fall where they may on the upcoming season. Instead, they’re set to follow the Dolphins lead and get a head start in the race up 2021’s draft order. Given the team’s struggles the past two seasons, it looks like the right decision.

Baltimore came into 2020 needing to boost a pass rush that ranked 19th in the NFL in sack rate last season. In the past week, the Ravens locked breakout star Matthew Judon (9.5 sacks, 33 QB hits) in for the season with the franchise tag and acquired Campbell (6.5 sacks, 25 QB hits). Together, they had only six fewer quarterback hits than either the Raiders or Dolphins did as a team in 2019.

The true cost of the Campbell deal won’t be evident until Baltimore finalizes its reported contract extension with the aging pass rusher. So far, it’s an absolute bargain. Consider the last trade Jacksonville made:

The Broncos shipped out a fourth-round pick to free A.J. Bouye, who was one of the NFL’s least effective starting cornerbacks (9.8 yards per target and a 106.1 passer rating allowed), from the Jaguars. The Ravens got Campbell, at age 33 but coming off a season in which he ranked eighth in the NFL in quarterback hits, in exchange for a fifth-rounder they’d originally acquired by trading away their backup kicker.

Pretty good!

There are concerns about Campbell’s play as he enters his mid-30s. That’s reasonable. His sack numbers declined in each of the years that followed his 14.5-sack breakthrough in 2017. Per SIS, however, his hit and hurry rates both hit four-year highs last season. Is it possible he’s lost a step in his 30s? Yep! But the former Jag’s 2019 was proof he’s still capable of altering plays even if he’s not putting up big sack numbers.

Campbell is much more than his on-field numbers, too. He’s a locker room leader who was the NFL’s 2019 Walter Payton Man of the Year. He brings value in the pass rush and in the community. Over the course of his 12-year NFL career, he has been a constant positive force.

Unless Campbell signs a long-term extension with oodles of guaranteed money then falls off a production cliff, it’s tough to see this as anything but a win for the Ravens. Or anything but a notice of surrender for the Jaguars. But, hey, at least Jacksonville got something in return for Campbell before he could leave in free agency next year.