Why everyone thinks the Vikings are frauds in the NFL playoffs

Despite finishing the regular season with a 13-4 record, the Minnesota Vikings are mostly an afterthought in the NFC playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles look like a Super Bowl favorite, the San Francisco 49ers are riding Mr. Irrelevant, Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers barely made the playoffs, Dallas always gets attention as America’s team, Brian Daboll has the New York Giants back in the playoffs, while the Russell Wilson-less Seattle team grabbed the last playoff spot.

Then there are the Vikings, overshadowed by teams with better records or more interesting narratives but as the three seed, hosting the Giants this weekend.

With a new general manager (Kwesi Adofo-Mensah) and head coach (Kevin O’Connell), many thought the team would be in rebuilding mode with first-timers in those vital positions. Instead, Minnesota lost to the Eagles in Week 2 before running their record to 8-1 before a mid-November loss to the Cowboys.

A Week 14 loss to the Detroit Lions despite QB Kirk Cousins throwing for 425 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions created national doubt around the team. A 41-17 blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 17 formalized the narrative that the Vikings were good but not good enough.

How could a 13-4 team, who in November beat the vaunted Buffalo Bills, be considered not good enough?

As with everything in the NFL today, it starts with the quarterback. No amount of shirtless, gold jewelry-clad dancing will change the fact that Cousins is the poster child for “not good enough” at the position, whether it is accurate or not.

Cousins’s season was mostly impressive on the surface with 4,547 yards passing (4th in the NFL) and 29 touchdowns (tied for 5th). The veteran signal-caller also averaged a respectable middle-of-the-pack in yards per attempt (7.1). Under Cousins, Minnesota’s offense scored 24.9 points per game, good for 8th in the league.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t all impressive for Cousins. He tied for the third-most interceptions thrown (14) and sacks taken this year (46).

Advanced statistics like DVOA were not impressed with the Vikings quarterback this year. DVOA which defines “a quarterback with more value per play” has Cousins ranked 17th in the league. Pro Football Focus graded Cousins’ passing tied for 10th with Geno Smith and his overall grade as the 14th-best quarterback in the league.

Much like the narrative around his team, Cousins was good but not good enough.

The presence of WR Justin Jefferson, and all his greatness, also minimizes the respect given to Cousins on a national level.

Cousins is far from the biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball.

The offensive line is among the lower half of the league this season in both pass and run blocking, and the 46 sacks fall both on the quarterback and his offensive line. As RB Dalvin Cook rushed for more than 1,100 yards (6th in the NFL), he lacked explosiveness much of the year as shown by his 4.4 yards per carry.

While the Minnesota offense had a little greatness (Jefferson), some good (Cousins, Cook), and some mediocre (offensive line), the defense brought the team back down with a lot of the bad.

The Vikings tied for the third-most points allowed this season at 25.1 a game. While the offense’s interceptions didn’t help that number, the next-closest NFC playoff team (Giants) gave up just 21.8 points per game. Minnesota gave up 20 or more points in 13 of their 17 games this season which makes their 13-4 record even more impressive.

The four games they kept teams from scoring 20 points provide even more perspective when you look at the quarterback performances:

DVOA has the defense ranked 27th in the league.

The unit has some quality veterans leading the way. Pass rushers Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith combined for 20.5 sacks and 27 tackles for loss. CB Patrick Peterson and S Harrison Smith each had five interceptions.

After that, finding production on that side of the ball is difficult. PFF has just one other player who played 300 or more snaps grading out over 80 (out of 100), CB Duke Shelley. Shelley only played in nine games this season but logged 398 snaps.

The defense was mediocre at stopping the run but one of the worst at getting pressure on the quarterback this season according to ESPN’s win rate metrics.

Thankfully for the Vikings, the team’s positive qualities were still enough to get them home-field advantage in the first round and a rematch with New York. Minnesota pulled off the last-second victory in the two team’s Week 16 matchup on a 61-yard field goal as time expired.

Cousins had a good game against the Giants defense with 299 yards and three touchdowns. He was also sacked four times. The opposing quarterback that day, Daniel Jones, threw the ball all over the field that day racking up 334 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception.

Sunday afternoon, the Vikings have another chance to change the narrative around their team. It starts with Cousins, but the defense that has played poorly will help decide whether the third seed in the NFC is going to be feared in the postseason or proven to be a middle-of-the-road fraud despite their 14-3 record.

Besides moving on in the playoffs, a lot is on the line for Minnesota Sunday afternoon.