Fans and analytics agree - Purdue’s loss to FDU was the biggest tournament upset ever

At the start of ever NCAA Tournament every team wants to make history. Purdue’s men’s basketball team had that same hope. With 7’4 Zach Edey leading the way, Purdue hoped to win it’s first national championship.

The Boilermakers did make history in the NCAA Tournament, but not for the reason they wanted.

In their first round game, Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson, becoming only the second No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 16-seed. While they may not have been the first to be so shockingly upset, it will go down as the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history.

What separates the Purdue loss from the rest is the degree to which it never should have happened and could never have been predicted. Even after UMBC shocked No. 1 Virginia in 2018, becoming the first 16 seed to pull off the upset and proving it could happen, there was no reason to believe it would happen this time. By every metric, comparison and thought, this shouldn’t have happened.

In the time leading up to Selection Sunday, Purdue and FDU couldn’t have been in more different spots. Purdue had been ranked No. 1 in the AP poll for weeks through the regular season and just completed a win of both the Big Ten regular season and conference tournament. FDU didn’t even win its conference tournament, normally the requirement of a team its size to reach the NCAA Tournament. But because its opponent, Merrimack, was ineligible to compete in the tournament, the Knights took the bid despite the loss.

Even then, FDU was still a game away from even meeting Purdue. The Knights played Texas Southern in the First Four before even reaching the Round of 64. FDU won that game as the underdog.

Every number was against FDU heading into its Friday game against Purdue. FDU was ranked the 68th of 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament, while Purdue was No. 4. For comparison, Virginia was the No. 1 overall team in the tournament, but UMBC was only No. 63, not as big a disparity as the 2023 matchup. The Boilermakers entered as a 23.5-point favorite, making them the biggest favorite by the Las Vegas definition to ever lose. Virginia’s loss hadn’t even held that mark. Instead, Purdue’s loss beat No. 2 Missouri’s 21-point upset at the hands of No. 15 Norfolk State in 2012.

Three-fourths of college basketball fans said the Purdue loss was a bigger upset than Virginia’s in 2018.

On top of that, a majority of fans said Purdue losing to FDU was even more surprising than No. 15 seed Princeton making it a round deeper into the tournament by reaching the Sweet Sixteen.

It wasn’t just that Purdue had more talent on its roster or that it was the bigger program. The Boilermakers were literally bigger. Edey towered over opponents all season long, with almost no one in the country able to match his physical size, but FDU was almost comically small. FDU was dead last, No. 363, in KenPom rankings for average height in the country. They didn’t have a single player taller than 6’6 in the rotation.

The rankings made the matchup seem ridiculous. KenPom ranked FDU the No. 312 team in the country on Selection Sunday, while Purdue was No. 7. NET rankings weren’t much kinder, putting FDU at 301 and Purdue at 5.

To Virginia’s credit, the year following its epic loss to UMBC the Cavaliers won a national championship. Unfortunately, most fans outside of the Commonwealth remember the upset more than the title. Still, Purdue would almost certainly accept the FDU loss if it means a 2024 championship.

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