10 bust-proof picks in the 1st round of the 2023 NFL Draft

The beauty and terror of the NFL draft each year is the uncertainty.

Every year, there will be surefire gems, and there will be busts. We rarely know which players will be which. Yet, each year, there are some players who stand out as safe picks. Let’s look at 10 players who should all be first-round picks and who offer teams a low risk on the bust-o-meter.

Anderson is the surest pick in this draft. There is a reason why there have been reports that the Houston Texans are considering taking him over a quarterback at No. 2. He is an NFL-ready player at a premium position. He has everything in his tool box. He’s being compared to Khalil Mack for good reason. He’s a game-changer. He’d be a steal for the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 or if he slips due to a quarterback run at the top of the draft.

It takes a special quarterback talent to be this high on the list. There are just so many unknowns and questions at the position. But Young is a safe pick not just because of his college production, but because of his makeup. He is off the charts when it comes to the mental part of the game, his personality and his maturity. Those are traits of franchise quarterbacks. Don’t worry about his small stature. Yes, his size isn’t ideal, but we’ve seen smaller quarterbacks succeed, and Young will be the next one.

This is a talented, NFL-prepared player. He should instantly step onto the field as his team’s CB1 and he will remain that for years. He should become a perennial Pro Bowl player. He’s a sure top 10 pick.

This is another surefire top 10 pick. Wilson is overshadowed by Anderson in the edge-rusher class, but he too will become a star. Any team will be lucky to draft him.

Stroud very easily could be the No. 1 overall pick by the Carolina Panthers and if he is, I wouldn’t blink. Don’t look at him being No. 5 on this list as a negative. It’s just prudent to be cautious with quarterbacks, and I do think he’s less of a sure thing than Young is. Yet, I still expect him to excel at the next level.

The hype is real, folks. Some scouts project him to be a top 10 pick, and he likely won’t slip past the 23-25 range. In a league where starting running backs are routinely found in the mid-to-late rounds and they aren’t considered priorities in free agency, running backs aren’t usually rated this highly. But Robinson is different. He will be a special player in the NFL.

Let the above tweet by Riddick sink in. Riddick is an excellent talent evaluator and he doesn’t specialize in hyperbole. Wright is the goods, and he will be the answer at a premium position for the next decade for whatever team drafts him.

He is another plug-and-play type. He has an excellent tool box and he will quietly be a home-run pick. He could go in the top 10.

Johnson might be the first offensive lineman off the board in Round 1. He is skilled and has great makeup. He also has the versatility to play tackle or guard. He will not be a bust.

Mayer is an exciting prospect. We’ve seen tight ends become huge parts of offensive attacks in this generation, and Mayer should be the next one to have that type of impact on an NFL offense.

This is a strong tight end class and there will be value taking one in the mid-rounds. But Mayer is on another level. He’s a first-round pick and he won’t disappoint.

There are so many variables that dictate a player’s success at the next level. But these 10 players are as close to sure things as teams will find in the NFL draft.