Despite their limited selections at the top, the Cleveland Browns can control the middle of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Browns currently have six selections combined between the third, fourth, and fifth rounds. Those selections span from pick 74 to pick 142.
The Browns can still be winners of 2023 NFL Draft without a first-round pick
Cleveland has six selections in the three middle rounds of this year’s NFL draft.
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Six selections within 68 picks of each other in the middle three rounds of the draft gives general manager Andrew Berry a lot of options. With a pick in the top 10 of each of those rounds, Cleveland is in a position to add talent to their team but could also make trades to capitalize on their positioning.
Without a first or second-round selection and mounting pressure to make a move in the ultra-competitive AFC, Berry is in a position to throw in his chips to move up significantly or trade up more than once.
Throughout his time as the team’s general manager, Berry has been very creative in his trades. Like the trade for receiver Elijah Moore, he has often kept the same number of draft picks despite moving up or adding a player by netting a later-round pick back in return. Given his creativity, it is hard to predict what a trade-up might look like for Cleveland but we have a few trade charts that give us some idea of just how far Berry could go up in an extreme move:
- Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart: The original trade chart might be slightly outdated at this time but it is important to reference. In the Johnson trade chart, the Browns first four selections (third and fourth-rounders) would be enough to move them all the way up to pick 46. That is a lot of resources to trade away to move up 26 spots.
- Rich Hill Trade Chart: At SB Nation, we tend to refer to Rich Hill’s trade value chart from Pats Pulpit. It’s an update of Johnson’s with actual NFL data over the years and would slot the Browns at pick 40.
- Harvard Sports Analysis Chart: Put together by Kevin Meers, who later became a part of Cleveland’s front office, the Harvard Chart uses career data to place value on each selection. While no team would make the trade, the Harvard chart values the Browns first four selections as worth the fourth overall selection in the draft.
- Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart: Accumulated by Over the Cap, the F-S Chart uses contract values to “get a more accurate representation of the expected performance of a particular draft pick.” Basically, knowing the value of each pick with second and third contracts given to players drafted at those slots. From this chart, Cleveland’s first four selections are shockingly worth the second overall selection.
What a quick look at these charts shows us is that newer analytics value mid-round selections much more than older charts. Somewhere between being valued near the top of the entire draft and near the middle of the second round lies the truth of what Berry could do if he chose to be ultra-aggressive on Day 2 of the draft. Could a falling player with a first-round grade, along with the pressure to win in 2023, lead the Browns to give away half of their draft to select near the top of the second round?
With six selections in the middle three rounds of the 2023 NFL draft, Cleveland has a lot of power to move up to get their guys or throw multiple picks at a position group for more bites at the apple.
How did the Browns end up without high picks again?
Barring a trade to acquire one, Cleveland will not select in the first round of the NFL draft until 2025. Between 2019 and 2025, the team will have only made two first-round picks: OL Jedrick Wills (2020) and CB Greg Newsome II (2021).
Then-GM John Dorsey traded their 2019 first-round pick as a part of the mega-deal to acquire WR Odell Beckham Jr. and DE Olivier Vernon. Current GM Andrew Berry then traded away three first-round draft picks and other mid-round selections in a trade with the Houston Texans to acquire QB Deshaun Watson.
It’s not just the lack of first-round picks. In 2022, Berry also traded out of the second round to acquire more draft capital. In 2023, Cleveland’s GM has already traded out of the second round to acquire WR Elijah Moore and the New York Jets’ third-round pick.
Two straight seasons without a first or second-round selection while coming off of losing campaigns the previous year could be Berry’s epitaph (along with the Watson deal) if things are not successful for the Browns this season. It could give him the juice he needs for another big swing.
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