Sam Darnold is on the verge of cashing in on his Vikings play

If the Minnesota Vikings go 3-2 with Sam Darnold to close out the regular season, the quarterback will have won as many games in his first season with the Vikings as he did in all three years with the New York Jets. Darnold is fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes (23), seventh in passer rating (102.5), and he has nine games this season with at least two touchdown passes, tied with Joe Burrow for the most in the NFL.

There’s nothing Darnold could do to silence every skeptic; the ones who remember how he regressed with the Jets, flopped with the Panthers, and sought backup work with the San Francisco 49ers. Not even Minnesota is tied to Darnold beyond this season. With J.J. McCarthy sitting in their back pocket as a much cheaper option in 2025, the Vikings will be forced to reveal if they agree with the skeptics or the believers.

But Darnold delivered in the second half of Minnesota’s win over the Arizona Cardinals, and if he keeps doing that the Vikings could be forced into a situation where they can’t say no...To Sam Darnold.

What’s most surprising about Darnold’s latest performance, going 21-of-31 for 235 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals, is that according to Next Gen Stats he was the most-pressured QB of Week 13 with a Pressure Rate of 53.8%

Darnold was the only QB to be pressured on more than half of his dropbacks last week and he was pressured 21 times by Arizona’s defense, getting sacked five times.

He still finished with a 111.6 passer rating, +4.6% completion percentage over expected, and 67.7% completions, all top-10 marks in Week 13. With Aaron Jones fumbling on the first play of Minnesota’s second drive, the Vikings couldn’t get anything going in the first half and ended up trailing 19-6 late in the third quarter so it’s not hyperbole to say that the team was fully leaning on Sam Darnold to lead them back against a team that had been in first place and that’s what he did:

Darnold answered the Cardinals’ last touchdown by going 5-of-5 with a touchdown on the ensuing drive and he led the game-winning drive by going 5-of-8 with the go-ahead touchdown pass.

Could there be other “Sam Darnold level” quarterbacks out there who are backups on their team and if they had gotten the Vikings job instead of Darnold, they would finally be having their breakout moment?

Maybe.

But all Darnold can control is that he got the job, not them, and he has put himself in position to be paid like a starter after the season.

It was a while ago, but the Denver Broncos gave Case Keenum a two-year, $36 million contract in 2018 after his season with the Vikings. Darnold will get a lot more than that and his benchmark could be closer to Kirk Cousins than Keenum. Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons, including $90 million guaranteed.

To what degree will Keenum and Cousins serve as cautionary tales that temper the market on Darnold as a 2025 free agent? Cousins never played better than he did when he had Justin Jefferson as a number one receiver. Now he’s leading the NFL in interceptions.

If Darnold can replace Cousins when there previously seemed to be a huge gap in value between the two quarterbacks, then who is to say that McCarthy can’t do the same to replace Darnold?

And if Sam Darnold can’t take the Vikings coaches, offensive line, and Justin Jefferson with him to the next team, who’s to say that he won’t go back to being the Darnold that we used to know?

But just the fact that we are having this conversation means that Darnold has already won. After a few years in backup purgatory, Darnold is on the verge of cashing in. Not just because of improved stats, but thanks to closing out games like he did on Sunday.