MLB Winter Meetings: Juan Soto, Draft Lottery and more

For over a century, the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings have been circled on the league’s calendar as the highlight of the long dry spell before spring training. Just over a month after the end of the World Series, team officials around the sport convene to more effectively talk trades and negotiate face-to-face with agents, while also dropping hints to attending reporters on potential moves and handling some other bits of league business — including some that are relatively new.

The activity gets started tomorrow and runs through the 12th, though news of MLB transactions could of course drop at any time. Here’s what you need to know to follow the action in Dallas.

Every year in free agency, there’s one player who stands out as the “must-have.” But it’s been decades since we’ve seen someone like Juan Soto hit free agency. He even surpasses what the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado posted prior to 2018; you’d have to go back to 2000 Alex Rodriguez, who also dropped jaws with the deal he signed all those years ago.

Because Soto debuted with the Nationals as a teenager in 2018, he’s hitting the open market just after his 26th birthday. In seven seasons, Soto has batted .285/.421/.532 with 179 doubles, 201 homers, and a 160 OPS+, good for 36.4 WAR per Baseball Reference. He’s remarkably healthy, has a batting eye like Ted Williams, delivered the Nats their first World Series crown in 2019, and immediately won over Yankees fans with a career-best 41-homer campaign that ended with them in their first Fall Classic in 15 years.

Soto even delivered the dinger that brought them there in an at-bat that showed off his otherworldly talent at the dish:

Soto is such an accomplished hitter that his so-so speed and defensive limitations hardly matter. If he so wanted, he could spend the rest of his career at first base or DH and still be ridiculously valuable.

As such, the bidding war for Soto has zoomed to stunning heights. It’s already a lock that he’ll get a $600 million contract, and recent reports indicate that it could be zooming beyond the record $700-million threshold set by Shohei Ohtani last offseason — and heavily deferred payments might not even be a part of this one.

The Yankees are, naturally, right in the mix to bring back Soto to pair with Aaron Judge, but the crosstown rival Mets and billionaire Steve Cohen are also dead-set on reeling in the superstar. Throw in the Red Sox making their strongest free-agency bid in a long time, the Blue Jays hoping to avenge the near-miss on Ohtani last year, and the defending champion Dodgers trying to shoehorn themselves in, and you have quite the heated race.

Most importantly for the sake of the Winter Meetings, it sounds like Soto might make his decision either before they begin or at the outset. So you’ll have to pay attention early on.

Once Soto signs, then all systems will be go on the remainder of the top names in free agency. It’s no secret that the biggest-spending teams already have a portion of their budget earmarked for Soto. Thus, many players are curious about what the teams who miss out on him will do. That will alter potential strategies.

There still could be notable signings—Blake Snell certainly didn’t wait—but All-Star starters Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, third baseman Alex Bregman, shortstop Willy Adames, and first baseman Pete Alonso seem likely to wait* until the Soto storm passes. That also goes for the trade market, which should open up more once Soto makes his call.

*Don’t expect incoming Japanese ace Roki Sasaki to sign before January 15th.

The first concrete item on MLB’s docket will take place Sunday night. The more traditional Hall of Fame ballot, as voted on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, will not finish voting until the end of December, with results planned for a January 21st announcement. The outcome of the Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, however, will be revealed on at 7:30pm ET on December 8th.

For those unfamiliar, this committee is one of the modern successors to the more well-known Veterans Committee, which voted on potential Hall of Famers who might have fallen through the cracks on the BBWAA ballot (or who were managers, umpires, or pioneers). Nowadays, the Hall of Fame assembles a 16-person committee to vote on a ballot of eight people who were either players from the Classic Baseball Era (which they define as pre-1980), or figures from the Contemporary Baseball Era (1980-present). The Contemporary Baseball Era was considered in 2023 and 2024, so now it’s the Classic Baseball Era’s turn.

If any of the following players earn 12 votes, then just like that, they’ll be Hall of Famers. The committee members are limited to three votes apiece, so it’s possible that none will make it, but hopefully, at least one squeaks through.

If you’re curious about the cases for each nominee, we’ve linked to the excellent work of Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe. In the opinion of yours truly, though, Allen and Tiant (who just passed away in October) both should’ve been enshrined in Cooperstown while they were alive, so if nothing else, they deserve plaques now. Allen in particular came one vote shy in each of his two most recent potential elections (2015 and 2022).

Donaldson is an underrated pre-Negro Leagues legend with his own strong case, and as far as living candidates go, Parker was absolutely a Hall of Fame-caliber talent at his peak, and John’s longevity is a testament to his fearlessness in undergoing a then-groundbreaking procedure. So take your pick of three of any of those five.

From the beginning of the MLB Draft in 1965 until 2021, the team with the No. 1 pick was either the worst team in the American League or the National League. Following the most recent CBA negotiations, though, the league moved to a model more similar to the NBA or NHL — namely one that includes a draft lottery with varying odds for almost every team that missed the playoffs. So even though the Nationals and Athletics finished with the league’s worst record in 2022 and 2023, respectively, Pittsburgh and Cleveland won the last two lotteries to earn the right to pick Paul Skenes and Travis Bazzana. The Guardians in particular were a net win for the unlikely nature of the lottery, as they only had a two-percent chance of grabbing the top pick prior to the 2024 edition.

It’s already guaranteed that MLB’s most abysmal team in 2024 will be left out in the cold. The White Sox set a modern-day record with 121 losses, but per an anti-tanking measure in the current CBA, they can pick no higher than 10th in 2024 because they play in a big market and were involved in last year’s lottery. Thus, they are ineligible for a second-straight lottery pick. These are indeed dark times on the South Side.

The Colorado Rockies are the most likely team to get 2025’s top pick. They notched their second 100-loss season in franchise history and now have a 22.45-percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick next year. Coincidentally, that could end up being the son of a franchise icon, as Matt’s other son, Ethan, is currently the highest-projected draft prospect.

Here’s the full rundown of the odds, per MLB.com. The lottery winner will be announced on December 10th at 5:30pm ET.

22.45% — Rockies
22.45% — Marlins
17.96% — Angels
10.20% — Nationals
7.48% — Blue Jays
5.31% — Pirates
3.67% — Reds
2.45% — Rangers
1.90% — Giants
1.50% — Rays
1.22% — Red Sox
1.09% — Twins
0.82% — Cardinals
0.68% — Cubs
0.53% — Mariners
0.27% — Diamondbacks

One of the Winter Meetings’ final events will be the annual Rule 5 Draft, when teams get to peruse their rivals’ minor-league rosters for possible players who they could quickly add to their own clubs. The catch is that for the MLB portion of the Rule 5 Draft, they have to keep said player on their active roster for the entire 2025 season; otherwise, they’ll be returned to their previous team.

Some of the most famous players taken in modern versions of the Rule 5 include Twins legend Johan Santana, former Marlins slugger Dan Uggla, and one of the top free agents in this current class, Anthony Santander. More often than not, these selections will be either mostly anonymous, ultimately returned, or simply passed. Many teams have already taken precautions to protect certain top prospects who would have been eligible, but you never know! Each and every team has at least one player who could be snared away.

Note that there’s also a minor-league portion of the Rule 5, wherein eligible players left off the Triple-A or Double-A rosters can be added to another organization without needing to keep them on the MLB squad. For example, recent Astros bullpen arm Seth Martinez originally came to the team in this manner; most of these selections are true rolls of the dice, where if the receiving team gets anything at all out of them, it’s considered a win.