Juan Soto’s Yankees regret might be fueling slow start with Mets

Juan Soto is in month No. 2 of a 180-month contract signed by the future Hall of Fame outfielder with the New York Mets, and by all accounts, it’s not going great.

Here are some headlines from this week:

Soto has reportedly been pouting as he’s struggled to replicate the incredible season he had in 2024 in the Bronx. The 26-year-old’s numbers are down across the board in 2025, although to be fair, they’re still very good for a normal human being baseball player.

In 48 games (214 PAs), Soto is hitting .247/.379/.437, with an .815 OPS, a wRC+ of 132, eight home runs and 20 RBIs. After piling up 8.1 fWAR a season ago, he’s at just 1.1 right now, and the eye test tells you that something isn’t quite right.

According to YES Network’s Michael Kay, part of Soto’s issues could be disappointment over not returning to the Yankees, for whom he starred a season ago.

“Why isn’t he happy? It comes down to this. I’ll say it now, and it will be denied. Of course, it has to be denied. But I have talked to people that I respect. He wanted to return to the Yankees,” Kay said. “That was his preference. His family said, ‘You are going to the Mets.’ His family felt very comfortable around Alex and Steve Cohen. And they said, ‘You are going to the Mets.’ And he is a guy that listens to his family. So I think at this point, he is probably a bit down, pouting a bit. And then to come into Yankee Stadium with three straight sellout crowds, at a place that was his Field of Dreams. It became his Field of Nightmares over the weekend.”

Bob Klapisch of NJ.com says higher-ups in the Mets’ organization were concerned about “Soto’s lack of enthusiasm for his new team.”

It’s always a chicken-or-the-egg situation in times like these. If Soto was hitting better, would he be happier? Or is he so disappointed he didn’t return to the Yankees that it’s affecting his hitting?

No one can climb inside the head of another human being, although the New York media is certainly giving it their best shot, so what we can look at are the numbers and underlying data to try and diagnose the problem.

Soto’s plate discipline is right where it normally is – a 17.8% walk-rate (18.8% career), and 15.9% strikeout-rate (17.0% career). While his .247 batting average is significantly lower than his career .283, his .379 OBP would be right where it should be if he was getting more hits.

His line-drive rate is down from a season ago, 20.4% to 17.7%, but it’s better than it was in 2022 and ‘23, when it was 16.2% and 16.6%, respectively. He’s hitting more grounders (51.1%) than he did last year (43.6%) but it’s in line with 2020, ‘21 and ‘23, when it was over 50% each season. Last year, he pulled the ball 45.1% of the time, an outlier season for him at Yankee Stadium. This year’s pull-rate of 38.7% is right in line with his career 38.1%.

According to Statcast, he’s still among the league leaders in a number of metrics that indicate things aren’t as bad as they seem.

It’s not realistic to expect him to repeat last year’s ridiculous performance, where he was in the 98th-to-100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velocity, Barrel % and Hard Hit %. Interestingly, his platoon splits are reversed, with a .953 OPS against left-handers and just a .772 OPS against righties. One shouldn’t expect that to continue.

There is one concerning number, the bat speed. Last year, he was in the 94th percentile in bat speed (75.4 mph). This year, he’s down to the 72nd percentile (73.3 mph). He’s far too young to begin to lose bat speed due to age or breaking down, so something else is happening with that number.

For those with short memories, we’ve seen from Soto that it sometimes takes him a little bit of time to adjust to new surroundings. Following his mid-summer trade from the Nationals to the Padres in 2022, Soto got off to a rocky start. In 52 games in August and September, Soto hit just .236/.388/.390, with only six homers in 228 plate appearances. He did aid the Padres in reaching the postseason, getting all the way to the National League Championship Series, and had a fantastic second season in San Diego, batting .275/.410/.519 with a league-high 132 walks, 35 dingers and 109 RBIs.

Expectations are undoubtedly high for a player who signed a 15-year, $765 million contract this off-season, especially in a media market like New York, and perhaps the weight of that contract, while acclimating to a new environment, is taking an early toll on the superstar. But worries about his ability to play in a big market like New York or under the brightest lights baseball has to offer are unfounded.

He excelled in the very same city last year, with the Yankees. He is a career .281/.389/.538 hitter in the postseason, with a .927 OPS in 43 playoff games. He put up an OPS of 1.373 in last year’s ALCS against Cleveland and a 1.084 OPS in five games against the Dodgers. He was instrumental in the Nationals winning it all in 2019, with a 1.178 OPS and three bombs against the Astros.

Whatever is going on with Soto doesn’t have anything to do with New York, specifically, or the pressure of playing on the national stage. And while it’s not out of the realm of possibility this could end up being a down year for Soto, he’s unlikely to have 14 more of them after 2025, and the odds are better than not the 1.000 OPS+ hitter we’ve come to expect will emerge at some point this season.