Final Four predictions for men’s national championship with field set

We’ve got a Final Four. It seems like it’s going to be tremendous. Let’s predict how it all plays out.

It’s a classic matchup of the best offensive team in college basketball (Illinois) against a team (UConn) that has mostly relied on its defense to get to this point.

The Illini have already gone through one elite defensive team (Houston) to get to the Final Four, but the Cougars didn’t have anyone who presents the types of difficulties inside that Tarris Reed Jr. does. The Huskies’ big man was tremendous against Duke, and he’ll need to be tremendous again on Saturday night for Dan Hurley to remain unbeaten in tournament games played after the second round.

UConn and Illinois actually met at Madison Square Garden all the way back on Nov. 28, with the Huskies controlling the game from start to finish and cruising to a 74-61 win. The biggest difference for the Illini between then and now has been the transition of Keaton Wagler from relatively unheard of freshman to one of the best players in college basketball and a likely top 10 NBA Draft pick.

Wagler played just 14 minutes and scored only three points in the first game against Connecticut. If either one of those stats are the same on Saturday, something will have gone horribly wrong for the Illini.

Illinois is playing its best defense of the season at the perfect time, it has the ability to expose UConn on the glass the same way that Duke did, and it has a more versatile array of offensive weapons than the Huskies did.

It seems absurd to bet against Dan Hurley in this spot, but I’m calling for the reversal from the regular season matchup.

Prediction: Illinois 76, UConn 71

Getting the privilege of seeing these two behemoths go at it has felt like a foregone conclusion since the moment the bracket came out. Or maybe for a few months before that.

Michigan is No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency. Arizona is No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 4 in adjusted offensive efficiency. No two teams have been more consistent since the start of the season than these two, and no two teams have been more dominant through the tournament’s first two weeks than these two.

It just feels like there’s no chance this game isn’t a classic.

Arizona feels like it has an advantage when it comes to rebounding and finishing at the rim. If it doesn’t hold an edge over the Wolverines in those two categories, it’s hard to envision them winning this game. The reason? Michigan has an advantage when it comes to overall scoring talent and perimeter prowess.

Dusty May’s team is shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc since the start of March. If Arizona is forced to stretch its defense on Saturday night, it’ll create more space for Wolverine bigs Aday Mara and Morez Johnson to operate in the lane, as well as more space for All-American Yaxel Lendeborg to do … whatever he feels like doing.

These two teams are so evenly matched it’s damn near impossible to have any semblance of confidence when it comes time to make a prediction. At the end of the day, I’m going with the team that has the best overall player as my tiebreaker, and that’s Michigan with Lendeborg.

Prediction: Michigan 82, Arizona 81

The Big Ten curse will officially be broken, as one of these two teams will be guaranteed to be the first national champion from the conference in 26 years.

Michigan won the only regular season meeting between the pair, cruising to an 84-70 win in Champaign back on Feb. 27. The Wolverines dominated that game with their size and physicality, getting a combined 54 points from the frontcourt trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson and Aday Mara. Keaton Wagler scored 23 points for the Illini to keep the final score at least somewhat close to respectable.

It’ll only have been a little over a month between the two games, and unlike the rematch with Illinois, I’m not sure enough has changed with the Illini to expect a much different result in this one.

The Wolverine frontcourt dominates again, Wagler and company can’t get it going enough from the outside to keep pace, Michigan wins the way it has most of the time over the preceding five months, everyone agrees that the game against Arizona was the real national title bout, and your faithful narrator correctly predicts the national champion for a fourth straight year.

Prediction: Michigan 81, Illinois 68