2015 college basketball power rankings: Kentucky’s historic D or Virginia’s balance?

Record: 19-0, 6-0 SEC
Last Week: Put away Vanderbilt, cocked up South Carolina
Best Wins: North Carolina, Texas (home), Kansas (neutral), Louisville (road)

Record: 19-0, 7-0 ACC
Last Week: TKO’d Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech
Best Wins: N.C. State, Harvard (home), Maryland, VCU, Notre Dame (road)

I wrote last week about Kentucky’s elite defense and Virginia’s balance, but it bears repeating, especially since Kentucky’s slipped out of the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency since: Balance tends to beat out lopsided dominance come tournament time.

Last season, Louisville, Arizona, Florida and Virginia finished Nos. 1-4 in the final KenPom rankings, and with four of the top five defenses in college basketball, but none of those teams finished higher than No. 15 in offensive efficiency, and none of them played for the title, with only Florida making the Final Four. Only two of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency, Wisconsin and Kentucky, made the Final Four, and both teams got there by playing absurd offense (Wisconsin bombed Oregon and Baylor, then was one of just eight teams all year to crack 1.00 PPP against Arizona’s defense; Kentucky scored more than 1.15 PPP from the Round of 32 through its Final Four win over Wisconsin, while playing four top-10 KenPom teams).

UConn, meanwhile, played like both a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense on its championship run. Its first three games were all among the six best performances against those defenses in 2014-15, its last three were among the four best defensive performances against those teams, and the Huskies’ shutdown of Florida in the Final Four was the fourth-best offensive performance and second-best defensive performance against the Gators.

This oversimplifies things a fair bit, and prizes the work of the winner (Florida played rather good offense and defense until the Final Four, it should be noted), but the moral of the story is this: It’s better to be good on both ends, or at least have the capacity to be great on both ends, than just one, especially in a one-game sample.

Virginia coming back from 10 down on the road at Virginia Tech was a perfect example of why: The Cavaliers hadn’t been shooting well all day, but they clamped down on the Hokies for the final 10 minutes of play (in which Virginia Tech scored four points), and their offense eventually got going and got a lead that wouldn’t be lost. Both the defense strangulating Tech and the offense punching the Cavs off the rope were part of that comeback.

Kentucky’s basically a lock to preserve any 10-point lead, and the ‘Cats may well push their defense to new lows if they dominate Missouri again on Thursday: Currently giving up just over 0.80 points per possession on the year, Kentucky could finish that contest under that insane mark.

But I think, based both on its comeback in Blacksburg and its offense, that Virginia has a better chance of coming back from a double-digit deficit than Kentucky, which has only faced one for just over two minutes total this year, all of that time in the first half. Columbia led the ‘Cats by 10 or more three times in the first half, but never for longer than 44 seconds; Texas A&M led by 11 for exactly a minute in the first half. And I’d rather have situation versatility come March.

Record: 20-1, 9-0 West Coast
Last Week: Galled Saint Mary’s, declawed Pacific
Best Wins: SMU (home), Georgia (neutral), St. John’s, BYU, UCLA (road)
Losses: Arizona (road)

Record: 18-2, 6-1 Pac-12
Last Week: East Bay Funked Up Stanford and Cal
Best Wins: Gonzaga (home), San Diego State (neutral), Stanford (road)
Losses: UNLV, Oregon State (road)

Record: 16-3, 6-1 Pac-12
Last Week: How ‘bout dem apples’d Washington and Washington State
Best Wins: Wichita State (home), BYU (road)
Losses: Kansas (in Kansas City), Arizona, San Diego State (road)

Last week, I inducted Gonzaga into the Pop-a-Shot Posse and threw Arizona and Utah together as the Pack-It-In Pack, but that’s not entirely fair to all three schools: There’s more balance for each than a derisive nickname suggests. Gonzaga’s No. 27 in defensive efficiency, and Arizona and Utah are each within the top 20 in offensive efficiency, so each team here is great at one end and good at the other.

Of those three great units, though, the edge has to go to Gonzaga’s offense, which has failed to top 1.00 PPP just twice this year. (Sure, one of those times was at Arizona, but the Wildcats haven’t lost at home since 2013.) Arizona’s defense has yielded better than 1.00 PPP three times, and Utah’s has been so generous four times ... including once in a road loss to Arizona.

I think it’s rather likely Gonzaga would beat Arizona in Spokane, a point Luke Winn made earlier this year. And I think it’s possible that Utah will beat Arizona in the return game in Salt Lake City. But Arizona having wins over both teams may be a tiebreaker when it comes to determining which of three powers west of the Rockies gets to be the power in the West Regional.

Record: 18-2, 6-1 Big Ten
Last Week: Hammered Iowa, survived Michigan
Best Wins: Oklahoma, Georgetown (neutral)
Losses: Duke (home), Rutgers (road)

Record: 16-2, 4-2 ACC
Last Week: Polished off Pittsburgh, #CoachK1K’d St. John’s
Best Wins: Michigan State, UConn, Stanford (neutral), Wisconsin, Louisville (road)
Losses: N.C. State (road), Miami (home)

Remember when Duke went into the Kohl Center and beat Wisconsin by 10 while scoring almost 1.30 PPP? That was seven weeks ago. The more important result when comparing the two teams might be Wisconsin’s loss to Rutgers two weeks back ... except Duke lost to N.C. State on that same day, and to Miami two days later.

Both of these teams are much better on offense than defense. But I trust Wisconsin more.

The Badgers have been exceptional on offense since that loss, scoring 1.38 PPP in their last three games, but they’ve been iffier on defense, notably allowing 1.10 PPP to depleted Michigan this weekend. However: Duke, after putting the clamps on Louisville, has been subjectively “worse” on defense in my eyes, giving up 1.04 PPP to a Pittsburgh team that needs offensive rebounds to survive and still battered Duke for them, then 1.00 PPP to St. John’s despite the Red Storm seemingly forgetting how to play offense for the final 10 minutes of play after scoring 1.18 PPP through the game’s first 50 possessions.

Duke’s rally in Madison Square Garden to get Mike Krzyzewski his 1,000th win was stirring and impressive. I’m just not sure it’s replicable; time will tell if that was a memorable moment or a meaningful turning point.

Record: 18-2, 5-2 Big East
Last Week: Rocked by Georgetown, clipped Creighton
Best Wins: Butler, Xavier (home), VCU (neutral)
Losses: Seton Hall, Georgetown (road)

Record: 19-2, 7-1 ACC
Last Week: Swatted Georgia Tech and Miami
Best Wins: Michigan State (home), North Carolina (road)
Losses: Virginia (home), Providence (neutral)

To Villanova’s credit, the Wildcats responded from a 20-point shellacking against Georgetown (which has a matching set of double-digit losses to Xavier now) by whipping Creighton over the weekend. But it’s funny to consider that these two rivals of the Old Big East (the Best Big East?) are now winning in un-Big East ways.

Villanova has some of the quintessentially Big East guard play, and sometimes plays essentially a four-guard offense, depending on what Darrun Hilliard and Josh Hart are doing, but the Wildcats don’t hit the boards, and Daniel Ochefu’s a debtor’s Patrick Ewing, if that. Notre Dame has more guard play, and I’d take Zach Auguste over Ochefu, but Big East teams occasionally played defense, if I recall correctly. (Also, Notre Dame’s 10 best offensive performances of the year have come against teams outside the top 130 in KenPom, which is, uh, worrisome.)

I don’t trust Villanova not to have a bad game like it did against Georgetown, but I do trust the Wildcats a lot more than I did last year, when their leaky perimeter defense made them ripe for the Shabazzing that did them in. I don’t trust Notre Dame’s defense at all.

Record: 17-4, 7-1 ACC
Last Week: Put Wake Forest to bed, controlled Florida State
Monday Night: Outran Syracuse
Best Wins: Louisville (home), Ohio State, Florida, Davidson (neutral)
Losses: Iowa, Notre Dame (home), Butler (neutral), Kentucky (road)

Record: 16-2, 6-0 Missouri Valley
Last Week: Bore down on Missouri State, took care of Drake
Best Wins: Seton Hall (home), Alabama (road)
Losses: George Washington (neutral), Utah (road)

Record: 16-3, 5-1 Big 12
Last Week: Latered Oklahoma, sawed off Texas
Best Wins: Florida, Oklahoma (home), Utah (in Kansas City), Michigan State (neutral), Texas (road)
Losses: Kentucky (neutral), Iowa State, Temple (road)

How cool would a round-robin tournament between these teams be?

At the point, Kansas would probably be at a disadvantage, because Frank Mason Jr. is more inconsistent than Marcus Paige and Fred VanVleet, though he’s arguably got higher highs than both, and has unquestionably been a better shooter this year. Both North Carolina (Kennedy Meeks) and Kansas (Cliff Alexander, and Good Perry Ellis) could eat the Shockers alive inside, but most thought Kentucky would do that to them last year, and that just didn’t happen. Wichita State is better defensively than both of its blue-blood brethren, but it struggles to defend the perimeter; North Carolina’s fleet and lanky wings force opponents to shoot a poor percentage on a ton of threes, while Kansas is merely OK at both preventing and challenging threes.

I’m inclined to use the UNC-Wichita-KU order because I think North Carolina would just run both slower foes into oblivion. Also, North Carolina beat Florida, its only common foe with either team, much more convincingly at a neutral site than Kansas did at home, while Wichita State struggled to win over Alabama at home, and Florida did that in Tuscaloosa Tuesday night.

Record: 17-3, 7-0 Atlantic 10
Last Week: Bilked Saint Louis
Tuesday Night: Chopped down George Washington
Best Wins: Davidson, Northern Iowa (home), Cincinnati (road)
Losses: Virginia (home), Villanova (neutral), Old Dominion (road)

Last week: “This team is [Shaka] Smart’s first one with a decent shot at being in the top 40 in both offens[ive] and defens[ive efficiency].”

Today: VCU is No. 35 in offensive efficiency and No. 25 in defensive efficiency. Blow out a team by 26 in a 64-possession game, as the Rams did Tuesday night, and good things happen. (Also worth noting: The George Washington team the Rams crushed is the same one that handed Wichita State one of its two losses this year.)

VCU is for real.

Record: A few of ‘em!
Last Week: Did some things!
Best Wins: Too many to list!
Losses: Will happen, because it’s Big 12 basketball, brother!

I’m still punting on the rest of the Big 12. There are still seven Big 12 teams in the KenPom top 25, and now none of them sit in the top 10, with Kansas checking in as the league’s highest-ranked team at No. 11. And I think Kansas is the best team in the conference, at least more often than not: Fending off Texas in Austin was impressive, as are wins over both Sooner State schools, and failing to win in Ames when it’s the only program to go to Hilton Magic and win since Missouri did so on Jan. 11, 2012, only means this Kansas team isn’t quite as good as the last two editions.

Who the best teams other than Kansas are, though, is beyond me, even though two of those teams are probably going to be among the nation’s best 16 teams by the end of the regular season.

Maybe Texas is one. The ‘Horns could use more of Isaiah Taylor playing like he did at Hilton on Monday, and would have a top-five defense if they weren’t flat terrible at turning teams over.

Maybe West Virginia is one, given how the Mountaineers would have a top-five defense if they could do anything other than turn teams over.

Maybe Oklahoma, which has the nation’s No. 6 defense despite not being nearly as good at defending in the half court as the Longhorns or at forcing turnovers as the Mountaineers, is one.

Maybe Iowa State, which has one of two road wins at West Virginia this year (the other belongs to LSU?), is one.

I don’t think Baylor or Oklahoma State are those teams, but if either team makes substantial improvements on offense, well, the spot’s open.

More likely, this will be a game of musical chairs for the seat behind Kansas on the bus. And while Kansas is used to being in that driver’s seat, it’s got more squabbling to observe this year than it has in a long, long while.

Record: 16-3, 4-2 ACC
Last Week: Popped Pittsburgh
Best Wins: Ohio State (home), Indiana (neutral)
Losses: Duke, Kentucky (home), North Carolina (road)

A history lesson: Three years ago, Louisville had the nation’s best defense (it wasn’t close by year’s end), but paired it with an offense that verged on horrific. The Cardinals ranked 50th or worse in all offensive Four Factors categories, and outside the top 170 in three of them, scored 80 points in regulation just three times after New Year’s, went 10-8 in conference play ... and won the Big East Tournament with four wins in four days, then stifled everything in their path on the way to the Final Four, where a great Kentucky team finally trumped the red-hot Cards.

I think this Louisville team might be a lot like that one, except this team’s offense is better and the defense is slightly worse. These Cards broke 80 for the second time since New Year’s on Sunday at Pittsburgh, which had given up 80 at home once over the last two seasons, and are capable of looking really, really good (Ohio State and Indiana) and really, really bad (Kentucky and Duke), just like that 2011-12 team.

But the lack of Russ Jones means the spurtability on offense isn’t quite the same, and no single defender is as good as Gorgui Dieng was for that squad, especially late in that season. And I think it’s going to be far more difficult to catch fire in the ACC Tournament, where Virginia, Duke and North Carolina all stand as more imposing foes than the teams Louisville beat in the 2012 Big East Tournament.

Still, I can’t ignore the parallel.

The Other Four Big 12 Teams deserve spots here ... Northern Iowa stays at No. 20 and has a Saturday showdown with Wichita State in Cedar Falls ... Maryland thudded to earth last week, but Melo Trimble bounced back against Northwestern (27 points) after a quiet night (10 points) against Indiana. ... Ohio State made it hard to justify writing about Indiana this week. ... Butler provided evidence for that “really good and just inconsistent” theory with a 20-point torching of Seton Hall.