3 keys to Michigan State’s surprising Final Four run
The Spartans always seen to play their best in March. Here’s why that’s the case this year.
No. 7 seeds aren't normally favorites to go to the Final Four, but if anyone was going to do it this year, it had to be Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans. Sure enough, after a close win over Louisville on Sunday, Michigan State is headed to Indianapolis.
Izzo's crew advanced to the Final Four by knocking off the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the East region, and will face the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils on Saturday night for a spot in the championship game.
All four of the Spartans’ tournament victories so far have come by single digits, highlighted by an overtime thriller on Sunday against Louisville. Michigan State clawed back from an eight-point halftime deficit by clamping down defensively and holding the Cardinals without a field goal for over seven minutes in the second half. Down the stretch, the Spartans weathered a run from Louisville, then never trailed in overtime en route to the 76-70 victory.
As a No. 7 seed going into a Final Four with three No. 1 seeds, the Spartans are the underdogs on paper. But that doesn’t mean they can’t compete. In fact, Michigan State heads to Indianapolis loaded with confidence. Here’s why:
Michigan State is hot at the right time
Every team that makes it to the Final Four is hot, sure. But Michigan State has transformed itself from a good-not-great Big Ten team into a team that has won eight out of nine games, including wins over Ohio State, Maryland, Virginia, Oklahoma and Louisville. The Spartans of today are a far cry from the Spartans that lost at home to Texas Southern in December and stumbled to a 4-3 start in the Big Ten.
The Spartans can get a pair of familiar opponents in the Final Four. They lost to Duke in the second game of the season, 81-71, a game in which Michigan State allowed its second-highest point total all year. But that's while the Spartans were still finding themselves. This version of Michigan State is much better defensively, led by all-Big Ten defensive team member Branden Dawson inside. For the season, the Spartans ranked 47th in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. While that's not great, it's plenty good when you factor in their top-15 ranking in offensive efficiency.
If Michigan State can win on Saturday, it may face conference foe Wisconsin -- assuming the Badgers can knock off unbeaten Kentucky. Wisconsin gave Michigan State its only loss during its current 8-1 stretch, but that was an overtime battle that the Spartans had a shot to win in regulation. Fresh off wins over some of the nation’s best teams, you could bet the Spartans would love another shot at the Badgers.
The big three came to play
There's something to be said about a team having so many different weapons, then seeing them all come together at the right time. Senior Travis Trice has taken his game to an elite level this year and has averaged almost 20 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. Despite struggling from the field against Louisville, he still led the team with 17 points. In the first three games of the tournament, he shot 43 percent from three-point range.
Though Trice led the team in the scoring column, Denzel Valentine did a little bit of everything on Sunday. He netted 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals against the Cardinals. Dawson, who has made a name as an excellent defender inside, blocked four shots and gabbed 11 rebounds to go with his nine points. Dawson has averaged nearly three blocks per game in the tournament and is shooting 50 percent from the field.
Bryn Forbes can really shoot
As if three reliable options weren’t enough, Forbes has come alive in the postseason. His four threes off the bench on Sunday provided a huge boost, especially given that three were shots that put the Spartans ahead. The Cleveland State transfer is shooting 9-of-17 from three-point range during the tournament and seems to have broken out from the minor shooting slump that hampered him at the beginning of the month. He has come off the bench 13 times this year, and can be used against Duke as a bit of instant offense if the Blue Devils get on a run and jump out to a lead.
Forbes is also an 80 percent free throw shooter and hasn’t missed from the line since March 13. While that’s a strong asset for anyone to have, it could be especially helpful for a Michigan State team that is notoriously poor from the foul line. This season, the Spartans ranked 338th in the country in free throw percentage, shooting just 63.2 percent.
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