ESPN’s Joe Lunardi breaks down the math behind Kentucky’s shot at going undefeated

Aside from the continued cool he’s showed in recent days with his hair (which he has assured SB Nation is real), ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has been busy during his favorite time of the season.

Outside of composing brackets for the world prior to March Madness, Lunardi is part of the play-by-play crew at Saint Joseph’s University for their men’s basketball broadcasts and is the Assistant Vice President of Marketing Communications. Lunardi took time out of his rigorous schedule to chat with SB Nation about his “real” hair, the field of 68, the life of a bracketologist and more.

Oh, and he did so all while eating, and generously offering, brownies. Lunardi insisted the brownies were real, too.

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Joe Lunardi: “Okay, what ya got?”

Tyler R. Tynes: “I don’t think people really understand how much work goes into being a “bracketologist”. What are your responsibilities like throughout the year and how do you handle them?”

JL: “It has really changed pretty significantly over the last few years because of the immediacy of TV and social media. Like, I used to update a bracket every Monday on the ESPN site and people would pick at it and we would haggle about it and the week would go by and people would start to guess ‘who won? Who lost? And how is it going to move?’

Now, you know, if we don’t update that bubble with every final score, like, my phone starts to get radioactive. Where did he go? What’s wrong? And I say: ‘I’m doing a game or I’m putting the kids to bed’ or whatever it is. So the immediacy to always have an update is how it’s changed the most and how it’s made it a lot harder. Because, the real value of the committee process is the ability to step back and be reflective on each team’s body of work, as opposed to overreacting to every single result or every basket.

Like BYU upsets Gonzaga Saturday night after midnight. So the BYU people are saying ‘well, we’re like a 5 seed!’ You know? But what about the 31 games before that when you were in third place in an average league? And I’m not knocking BYU. I think they deserve to be in. But that kind of overreacting. And my job is to cut through that clutter and be the one, I think, who preaches [about not overreacting to each game].

TRT: “Looking at the top four seeds right now, what’s your analysis on them? Especially Villanova since they’ve come onto the one-line so recently. Do they have the body of work to stay there and what’s the worst thing they have to do in the Big East Tournament to not be a one-seed? How many games do they need to win to stay a one-seed?

JL: “I think if they lose they are going to drop. Any game. Unusually, this is not a typical year, there are two or three other teams right there to jump into that spot. If I give you the team sheets and profiles for Nova, Wisconsin, Arizona, and still Gonzaga and Duke, the teams ahead of them, you’d say: ‘man they are all pretty close.’ Quality wins, league standing, rankings, strength of schedule, etc.

Essentially we are talking about, let’s put Kentucky on their pedestal and Virginia on a similar pedestal, not quite as high as Kentucky, but they aren’t going to fall off the top line, barring something really unusual. So we are talking about two open spots, the third or fourth open spots, for realistically five teams. Duke, Nova, Wisconsin, Arizona and Gonzaga. So, my view is: two of those five teams, at least two are not going to lose, and they will be the ones left standing. And if Villanova loses a game, they’re going to be behind the eight ball to get back to that spot.

The good news for them: they are no worse than a two-seed and they are going to start in Pittsburgh no matter what. If you think that my analysis would mirror what the committee does.

TRT: “You’d have to think it’s close.”

JL: “I mean, Even though I still don’t have a vote.”

*bites brownie*

TRT: “Of the other three, from you, are we looking at a Kentucky team that really might go undefeated to win a championship?”

JL: “Well, they are three quarters of the way there. The dream of 40-0, they are now 30-0, and I would have bet a decent sum that they would have lost by now. It’s hard to win every road game in any league and we have seen them have some near misses. A couple of overtime games, a one-possesion game at LSU, down the stretch at Georgia last night. So I would have bet the field.

But with each game that gets closer, the odds of the field winning...” (Waits for me to answer)

TRT: “Are getting smaller.”

JL: “Yes, are getting smaller. Uh, now. Three neutral court games in the SEC Tournament, two of which, against teams that could win...”

TRT: “That being LSU and Georgia?”

JL: “Well I mean, whoever is in the semis and finals are going to be at the level of teams that have given them games. Then you have to say from the Round of 32 on, they are going to play five teams on neutral courts against teams that could give them a game. So they’ll be 80 percent favorites (bad math homie: shy under 21%, H/T: mjmnum1) in all seven of those games. So if I go back to my Prob-Stat class, *does some mumbling that involves numbers* 56 percent chance now that they will win all of those seven.

So...where do you wanna put your money? *laughs*

TRT: “I guess for a dark horse for a tournament, who would be the three or four teams that are going to surprise us? A Maryland? Who are these teams?

JL: “Well, what you are trying to find are clones of UConn last year right? Who’s the team that’s bumped along for stretches of the year, in a good league, against good teams, that’s not going to be thrown off by the level of competition or the strangeness of the setting? You know, neutral court, neutral refs, sometimes in sterile buildings sometimes have a way of changing the mojo for teams, especially when they are used to being home all the time.

Typically you look to middle teams who are finishing strong in really good conferences. Might one of two or teams like that make the Final Four? Yes. Can they beat the 800-pound gorilla if they get there? Probably not. The Kentucky team that UConn beat last year for a title was an eight-seed, UConn was a seven. This surely doesn’t look like a year when there’s a seven and an eight playing because there’s a gap after the two-seeds.

But teams that certainly strike me as [dark horse teams] possible? Uh, the core of Wichita State went to the Final Four two years ago. They are still there. They were good enough to be undefeated last year in the regular season. Uh, the other team in that league Northern Iowa is hard to play against. But if I went league by league, who’s down the standings in the power leagues that could win three or four games...uhhhhhh

ACC: I would say Notre Dame

Big 10: I would be with you, although Maryland is a top ten team, hard to say they are a sleeper. Iowa seems to be turning it up a notch right about now.

SEC: I like LSU and Georgia. Both of whom have taken Kentucky to the wire.

PAC-12: I don’t think there is one. Arizona is a top team, but I don’t think Utah has the pedigree to do it.

Big 12: Wow. A lot of teams. West Virginia. Iowa State, eh, I don’t think plays good enough so West Virginia. They’ve beaten Kentucky in a tournament before in a regional so that’s something they could put on their blackboard [as motivation].

Big East: Butler. Butler’s not good enough to beat Kentucky but they’re good enough, you know, they’ve beaten Georgetown, they’ve beaten North Carolina, they’ve beaten a lot of good teams, took Villanova to the wire at home without a starter.

But, yeahhhhhh, it doesn’t feel like a sleeper year to me. Which of course means what? *waits for me to answer again but I don’t answer fast enough for him* That it’s going to blow apart.

TRT: What about the local teams in Philadelphia? Temple. What do we make of Temple?

JL: They’re really hard to evaluate. What team do we evaluate. Just the one with all the players healthy in eligible, because that’s a pretty strong profile, damaged though by looking so sickly in the two road losses last week. They really needed one of those games, either would have put them in I think and now they have East Carolina, which is a total...it can only hurt them. To feel safe, they’re going to have to beat UConn at home and avoid a bad loss in that tournament. They are anything but solid. They are right, exhibit A: of bubble.

TRT: “To that same point then, NC State, they’ve had great wins and bad losses...”

JL: “But their schedule strength compared to Temple’s is off the charts.”

TRT: “Yes, but, *then Lunardi sees a friend he knows and they talk for two minutes and he completely forgets we were talking about NC State and other bubble teams and he gets lost in a daze and is in a blank stare like Tom Hanks in “Castaway” looking for Wilson or basically any point when he’s on the island and then he finally snaps out of it and gets back to the questioning.*

JL: “NC State’s good.”

TRT: “Who’s the team’s we shouldn’t bet on that may be likely to flame out come tournament time? The North Carolina’s, the Miami’s. Who’s it this year?

JL: “If I’m filling out my bracket, the first thing I look at is: ‘who’s got a good seed that was lousy away from home?’ They are going to be out there and you have to do your research. There’s going to be someone out there that was 2-7 on the road that built up a gaudy record in a good league. I don’t like those teams. And this year, normally, I look for team’s that can really lock down, and this year it’s the opposite.

The offense is so bad across the country. If you can score, if you can really score you might have an edge. So like Notre Dame, Davidson, uh, I think Duke, when they are on is the best offensive team in the country. I picked them in October for that exact reason. They will lay an egg and you hope the freshmen are not freshman...”

TRT: “Too long, not too too long. They’re going to be freshmen but not forever. Just hope Jahlil Okafor plays defense for all of five seconds”

JL: “Right. Now, against a Kentucky, they have two seven footers. They can make it a thing. They are just really good, but I gotta shoot.”