Brandon Ingram’s recruiting choice could swing the Duke-North Carolina rivalry

No player in the class of 2015 has risen up recruiting rankings as quickly as small forward Brandon Ingram has over the past year. The North Carolina native has been lighting the grassroots and all-star game circuit on fire, climbing all the way to No. 3 overall in ESPN’s final class ranking and getting his first invitation to compete with USA Basketball.

Now it’s time for Ingram to choose where he’ll play college basketball next season. The 6’9 wing is picking between Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, North Carolina State and Kentucky, among others. He has spent the last week meeting with coaches from each program and is set to announce his future plans on Monday.

Ingram is thought to have as much long-term upside as any player in the class. He has an impossibly long frame (7’3 wingspan), a nice touch from three-point range and won’t turn 18 years old until September. He’s one of a small number of players who could potentially shape next season’s national title chase.

It was only a few weeks ago that Duke won the national championship by getting 60 of its 68 points in the title game from four freshmen. All four were ranked in the top 25 of ESPN’s 2014 recruiting rankings. It stands to reason that a player as talented as Ingram carries a lot of weight with his decision.

Ingram’s commitment has long been considered a two-horse race between North Carolina and Duke. Ingram has strong UNC connections -- he played for Jerry Stackhouse’s grassroots team, Stackhouse Elite, and attended the same high school as Stackhouse, Kinston High. Still, it’s Duke who has become the late favorite.

Duke had the first and second-to-last in-home visit with Ingram during his final round of meetings with coaches. A commitment from Ingram would be the crown jewel on what’s already one of the best recruiting classes in the country for Coach K’s Blue Devils.

Here’s our best attempt to project how Ingram would fit at each school he’s considering:

The Tar Heels were thought to be the favorite for Ingram for most of his high school career. Ingram said he may have already committed to UNC if not for sanctions stemming from an academic fraud scandal hanging over the program.

North Carolina would have been ecstatic to have Ingram at any point, but his commitment took on added significance when small forward J.P. Tokoto made the surprising decision to turn pro. Now UNC has a hole on the wing for what some think is the preseason No. 1 team. With Ingram, UNC would certainly be one of the top title favorites for next season.

This is a team that has just about everything else. There won’t be many point guards in the country as productive as Marcus Paige, who is set to return for his senior year. In the front court, Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks form an intimidating tandem with size, athleticism and experience. Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry III were each McDonald’s All-Americans in 2014 and are expected to make sizable leaps as sophomores.

Ingram would push this group over the top. UNC always seems to be lacking shooting, and Ingram would provide an instant punch there. With Jackson and Ingram, UNC would have the tallest and longest wing tandem in the country.

There’s a lot riding on this commitment for UNC. The Tar Heels will be one of the better teams in the country as is, but Ingram would push them to a new level.

Duke lost four starters from the team that just won the national championship in Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook. What’s amazing is that Duke could again be the preseason No. 1 team with a commitment from Ingram.

Mike Krzyzewski’s sudden embrace of one-and-done culture won him his fifth national title last year, and he’s following the same blueprint for the 2015-16 season. Duke has another loaded class with size, shooting and a heady point guard.

Okafor’s replacement in the middle will be Chase Jeter, a 6’10, 215-pound center from Las Vegas. Jeter isn’t nearly as developed as Okafor, but he’s a solid talent in his own right, ranking No. 11 overall the class of 2015 by ESPN. Jones’ replacement is Derryck Thornton, who Coach K has successfully convinced to come to Duke and reclassify from 2016 to 2015 so he can play this upcoming season.

Shooter Luke Kennard should be another immediate threat for the Blue Devils. With Grayson Allen also returning on the wing, Duke has the pieces in place for another great team.

With Ingram? Yeah, this is likely the No. 1 squad in the country once again, even with what’s essentially an all-new starting five.

You already know that John Calipari’s team lost its top seven scorers. You know that sophomore-to-be Tyler Ulis will run point, incoming five-star freshmen Isaiah Briscoe and Skal Labissiere should each have a spot in the starting lineup and Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee will see major minutes as well.

Sounds great, right?

Well, the standards at Kentucky are different. Even if next season’s team has the potential to be a top 10 or 15 squad, UK is coming off a year that saw them become the first team to ever start a season 38-0. To get back to being a preseason national championship favorite, Kentucky needs another player or two. Ingram is one of those guys.

Kentucky sure seems to have an opening on the wing right now, at least if you believe Poythress is best suited for the four at the college level. Maybe that void will be filled by Jaylen Brown, another uncommitted prospect who is considering Kentucky as one of seven schools. Maybe Ingram will take up that spot first.

Add Ingram, Brown or Cheick Diallo to the mix and Kentucky is right back in the national title picture. Without one of those five-star recruits, UK may be in the rare position of not having an overwhelming talent advantage against every team on the schedule.

The Jayhawks already have a deep and talented team coming back next year. The front court will be stocked with experience, with Perry Ellis, Landen Lucas and Jamari Traylor. There’s depth on the wing with Wayne Selden, Brannen Greene and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Frank Mason Jr. and Devonte Graham are there to run the point.

So, where would Ingram fit in?

It’s true that last season’s Jayhawks brought in two five-star freshmen who never really seemed to find their role. Cliff Alexander was productive, but Bill Self didn’t trust him defensively. Kelly Oubre earned playing time eventually, but he never dominated the way many assumed he would. Both are already out of the program and onto the NBA draft. Will that scare away future five-star recruits?

It could, but it didn’t dissuade power forward Carlton Bragg from choosing Lawrence. Bragg is the only freshman Kansas has coming in for next season. The addition of a talent like Ingram would certainly be a welcomed one. You have to think Self would carve out a role for him even with such a deep team on hand.

Kansas seems more likely for Diallo than Ingram, but who knows what either player is currently thinking. We should know better than to count out Kansas for an elite recruit.

The Wolfpack are going to have a really good team next year, but the loss of Trevor Lacey and Kyle Washington certainly stings. Adding Ingram would be a great way to erase that pain.

Ingram would immediately be plugged in on the wing next to Cat Barber, and could pick up much of the scoring void left by Lacey and graduating senior Ralston Turner. With BeeJay Anya and Abdul-Malik Abu, the front court should be set. NC State just needs another capable scoring wing like Ingram and they will be set.

With that being said: can you imagine a world where a five-star recruit picks NC State over Duke and North Carolina? It seems unlikely, is all.