I am here to take a risk and not be too chalky. Let’s get into it
NCAA tournament predictions 2017: SMU is going to the Final Four
The Mustangs have what it takes to upset Duke and Villanova and reach the Final Four.
East Region:
It was incredibly liberating to advance a No. 6 to the Final Four with a real level of confidence and logic. Of course it is still a reach to say the Mustangs, from a two-bid league, with a first-year head coach, in the same region as the defending national champions and pre-season favorites, can get to Glendale, but I haven’t seen a more worthy team with that number next to their name in a long time.
Hear me out:
- KenPom has them 11th, sandwiched between mainstream title contenders Kansas and Duke.
- They’re one of six teams in the top 30 of both offensive and defensive efficiency and eFG.
- Their entire starting lineup is between 6’6 and 6’8 … and they all shoot the three at a 40 percent or higher clip.
SMU is balanced and versatile, allowing them to compete and win against different styles of play.
If you’re scared to make such a pick, Villanova is still strong, with a savvy backcourt that’s proven in tight games, and Duke is truly showing what their blue-chip lineup is capable of. In the second half against UNC in the ACC tournament, they looked like one of the five best college basketball teams in the last 20 years. Scary stuff.
For upset talk, I am not sold on ETSU as an upset pick. Vegas currently has them as near-double-digit underdogs. They shoot the ball well but will be challenged by Florida’s solid defense.
Virginia, despite being down a bit this year and offensively challenged, get a good draw based on matchups to advance to the second weekend.
South Region
This is the fun region. The one with the most true Final Four contenders (four) and highest potential for games we reference and re-watch for years.
UNC is my pick to win it based on their path to the regional final. It’s the easiest. The Heels could face double-digit darling Middle Tennessee, or a Butler or Minnesota team who don’t have enough athleticism and playmakers to run with the one seed.
Meanwhile, Kentucky, UCLA, and Wichita State all have to play each other (and the Bruins may have to face defensive-minded Cincinnati), so there are more landmines to dodge.
The Blue Raiders? They are for real, boasting non-conference wins against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and UNC Wilmington. And don’t forget that upset they pulled last year against Michigan State. Just about everyone from that squad is back and they added former Arkansas Razorback JaCorey Williams.
They fit the criteria for a double-digit-seeded upset perfectly: They play great defense (47th), shoot the ball (37th), and do it at a methodical pace (314th-fastest).
But as long as Joel Berry stays out of foul trouble and knocking down shots with Justin Jackson, UNC is my pick to earn their 20th Final Four appearance.
Midwest Region
So many questions here.
- How much of a loss is Chris Boucher to Oregon?
- Just which Louisville team will show up?
- Can Iowa State keep rolling?
- What if Rhode Island makes a mess of this whole thing?
The Ducks were my semi-trendy pick to win the national championship a few weeks ago, but that changed when Boucher tore his ACL. He’s a unique player who adds a different dimension to a basketball game, but he’s not their leading scorer or rebounder — or even a starter.
I could qualify a Boucher-less team as one still capable of winning the region, not the whole thing, but location, location, location gives me pause. Remember that these regional semis and finals are in Kansas City, adding another layer of difficulty for their opponents. It’s going to be very difficult Rock Chalk Jayhawk and its legion of fans take to take an L at the Sprint Center.
Despite a thin frontcourt, remember that this team still beat Baylor twice and cruised past Kentucky, outscoring them by 11 in the second half. Landen Lucas has proven to be more than serviceable as their only true big, Frank Mason continues to finish every damn shot in the lane, and Josh Jackson has looked a little bit better each game since early February. Off-court issues and allegations are lingering, but Kansas is a bear at full strength.
Rhode Island will be a tough out, as they are tough perimeter defenders, which disrupts what Oregon does best if they are to meet in the second round, but I lean towards the Rams being a sucker pick for those who put too much stock in conference tournament success.
West Region
Coming into the season, Arizona was a giant unknown. Sure there was talent, but was there enough of it to stay atop the Pac-12 all season?
Lots of people close to the recruiting world would have told you to wait a year on this program, but fast forward to today and the Wildcats are starting to look like a team of destiny.
This should be a chalky region, as Arizona, much like UNC, has a pretty friction-less path to the regional final, where Gonzaga or Notre Dame will likely be waiting.
The keys, to me, are the rapid development of Lauri Markkanen and the number of athletes around him. He’s a lot like Joel Embiid without the back problems. A big-time program took a chance (or maybe knew something we didn’t) on an unknown and he’s suddenly a one-and-done, top-10 NBA draft pick stud.
Gonzaga will fall short once again (but they’re good, I promise! I really like the Zags), as Notre Dame’s approach to small ball will present problems for them. The Irish will reach their third regional final in as many years.
In the Elite 8 I expect the Wildcats to have little problems, though. They have guys that can beat you at every position, and Markennen can stretch the floor. U of A wins and gets to keep playing in their home state.
Final Four
Things are pretty serious now, and with momentum not being a real thing, the dream dies for SMU, as Arizona rolls over them with their all-around play and athleticism.
By this point. Markkanen is the trendiest NBA draft prospect and there’s talk of him being a top-three pick.
On the other side, it’s basically a pick ’em, but if lack of size is ever going to be a problem for Kansas, this is it. Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks are formidable players and Berry and Jackson should be able to do enough against the Jayhawks’ experienced backcourt to win a very close game.
On championship night, it’s two top-tiered programs: Arizona and North Carolina, but we didn’t really expect either to be here when the season started.
Sean Miller, great recruiter but questionable in-game coach, according to some, will finally break through, taking advantage of a pro-Arizona crowd in Glendale, just two hours from Tuscon.
On top of that ... they ‘ll be in a pretty great position to repeat in 2018.
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