Marvin Bagley III’s recruiting decision will change college basketball’s national championship picture

The most coveted high school basketball recruit in the country will announce his college decision on Monday night. Marvin Bagley III is expected to choose between Duke, USC, and UCLA after taking visits to all three schools over the past month.

Update: Bagley is going to Duke

Officially, Bagley is still a member of the 2018 class, but he has reportedly filed paperwork to reclassify up a year and play college basketball this season. If he’s ruled eligible by the NCAA, his presence would immediately alter the national championship picture.

What makes Bagley so special?

He’s a 6’11 lefty big man with top-end speed and agility who thrives on finishing inside and cleaning the glass. He’s also flashed a projectable outside shooting stroke and some ball-handling ability. He averaged 25.8 points, 14.9 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game this season on Nike’s EYBL circuit.

Duke, USC, and UCLA would all love to have him. Here’s our breakdown of how Bagley would fit each of his three finalists, with a prediction at the end on where he’ll end up.

Early top 25 ranking: No. 11

Projected lineup with Bagley

C Chimezie Metu

PF Marvin Bagley III

SF Bennie Boatright

SG De’Anthony Melton

PG Jordan McLaughlin

Bench: SG Elijah Stewart, PG Derryck Thornton, SF Shaqquan Aaron, G/F Chuck O’Bannon

Andy Enfield isn’t just the man behind Dunk City anymore. He’s built USC into one of the deepest and most experienced teams in the country. The Trojans will be a trendy Final Four pick whether they add Bagley or not. With him, they might be the national championship favorite.

The USC roster is already an embarrassment of riches. There’s four starting-caliber guards with seniors Jordan McLaughlin and Elijah Stewart, breakout sophomore candidate De’Anthony Melton and Duke transfer Derryck Thornton. There’s a versatile and athletic front court in place with Chimezie Metu and Bennie Boatright.

Basically the only thing missing is the type of elite talent who could be taken at the top of the NBA draft. That’s where Bagley comes in.

USC is fully aware of the stakes here. The Trojans have put on the full court press to recruit Bagley, even offering a scholarship to his 7-year-old brother to get in the family’s good graces. It might seem like another shameless recruiting tactic, but Enfield knows how incredible this team can be if it adds Bagley.

Enfield plays a freewheeling, up-tempo style that is a perfect match for Bagley’s athleticism. The Trojans might not have the history or prestige of Duke, but they look like the team that offers him the best chance to win during his short stay at the college level.

Early top 25 ranking: No. 11

Projected lineup with Bagley

C Wendell Carter Jr.

PF Marvin Bagley III

SF Grayson Allen

SG Gary Trent Jr.

PG Trevon Duval

Bench: C Marques Bolden, PF Javin DeLaurier, SF Jordan Tucker, SG Alex O’Connell

It’s the same story with Duke every year now: a bunch of productive players leave for the NBA and are replaced by a new batch of top recruits. Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, and Frank Jackson are out. Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. are in.

Add Bagley to the equation, and Duke will again look like the most talented team in the country at the start of the season.

Power forward has always been the most important position for Coach K since he embraced the one-and-done. That’s where he slid Jabari Parker, Justise Winslow, and Tatum to give Duke a more dynamic four-out offensive look. Right now, he doesn’t have a player on the roster with that type of skill set. As things stand, Duke is probably starting two traditional big men in Carter and Bolden in the frontcourt. You know Coach K badly wants a more versatile athlete in that spot.

Duke has been targeting Bagley as a 2017 recruit from the beginning, even reportedly “guiding him through the process” of reclassification. Coach K knows he already has an elite athlete at point guard in Duval. In Grayson Allen, he has a senior who is a proven go-to scorer. Carter should be a double-double machine.

The only thing missing is a player like Bagley. When it comes to recruiting, it’s never smart to bet against Duke.

Early top 25 ranking: No. 25

Projected lineup with Bagley

C Thomas Welsh

PF Marvin Bagley III

SF Kris Wilkes

SG Aaron Holiday

PG Jaylen Hands

Bench: SF Prince Ali, PF Cody Riley, C Gyorgy Goloman, F Jalen Hill, G LiAngelo Ball

UCLA was a train wreck in the season before Lonzo Ball showed up on campus. With him, the Bruins were immediately one of the most successful and entertaining teams in the country. Steve Alford’s big challenge is to keep that momentum going.

If he gets a commitment from Bagley, there will be no doubt he’s accomplished that.

You have to credit Alford for the recruiting resurgence in Westwood. He’s already bringing in a six-player class that ranks No. 5 in the country, per 247 Sports. That includes a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans in Jaylen Hands and Kris Wilkes and two talented big men in Cody Riley and Jalen Hill.

The Bruins are lucky to have a senior like Aaron Holiday around to provide stability on both ends of the court. So much of this season’s success would appear to rest on Hands, who will serve as Ball’s replacement at the point. Hands is a quick athlete who can finish above the rim, but he doesn’t play with the poise Ball did. Then again, almost no one does.

This UCLA team should hang around the top 25 all year without Bagley. With him, it’s a potential top-10 squad that can make a run in March.

Duke feels like the safest bet here. It’s the program with the most prestige. It’s the program that has proved it can turn you into a top NBA draft pick after just one season. It’s also the school that has been at the forefront of Bagley’s push to play college basketball next season.

Still, I’m going with USC (update: whoops). Bagley has been on the West Coast all his life and has spent the last two years in Los Angeles. The Trojans offer an up-tempo system, a deep and talented roster, and the opportunity for Bagley to create his own story rather than simply being the next in a long line of Duke one-and-dones.

Recruiting is as much about timing as it is about luck. USC has the pieces in place to win a championship this year. If Bagley joins the mix, you’re looking at the preseason favorites.