Gonzaga finally made the Final Four. Now comes the hard part

Gonzaga got the proverbial monkey off its back last year, reaching the Final Four for the first time since its NCAA Tournament streak began in 1999.

Though the Bulldogs ultimately fell short of a championship, they proved their point. Gonzaga is a national power and you can’t question it anymore, just because it plays in a mid-major conference.

So where does Gonzaga go from here?

Barring something unexpected, the Bulldogs are going to take a step back in 2017-18. Zach Collins, Przemek Karnowski, Jordan Mathews, and Nigel Williams-Goss have all departed, and few teams can replace that kind of firepower.

Johnathan Williams will need to be the star. Gonzaga’s leading returning scorer (10.2 ppg) and rebounder (6.4 rpg) can play inside and occasionally on the wing. He led the West Coast Conference in two-point field-goal percentage and effective field-goal percentage last year while also flashing the ability to step out and hit from deep. Expect him to primarily play power forward, so his strong rebounding and block percentage numbers from last year bode well.

Williams and sophomore Killian Tillie aren’t going to replace Karnowski and Collins on their own, but Gonzaga can still be fine in the frontcourt if the two of them and redshirt center Jacob Larsen have solid years.

In the backcourt, Josh Perkins has a chance to go from all-West Coast Conference honorable mention to one of the league’s most reliable players. After a red-hot start to last season, Perkins was inconsistent, but then again, he didn’t really have to score in double figures every game. He also didn’t need to run the offense full time with Williams-Goss next to him. He was the team’s second-leading assist man last year and will look to find Silas Melson from three throughout the season. Perkins will need to score more as well — he made the most of his attempts last season, but he will need to be a consistent scoring option.

Even if everything breaks right — even if guys improve and newcomers make an impact — Gonzaga will be remarkably thin. The Bulldogs missed on a few grad transfer possibilities this summer, and as a result, they’ll have to rely on freshmen Corey Kispert and Jesse Wade and redshirt freshman Zach Norvell Jr. off the bench. The trio comes in highly rated, but nevertheless far from a sure thing.

As is always the case in the West Coast Conference, the Bulldogs will have a thin margin for error. That’s why head coach Mark Few has once again put together a grueling non-conference schedule, giving Gonzaga plenty of opportunities to earn big wins. The Bulldogs will face Ohio State and either Florida or Stanford on back-to-back days during the Phil Knight Invitational. They also host Creighton and play at Washington and San Diego State.

The downside to that schedule: This young, new-look team won’t have much time to forge an identity and get used to playing together.

With so many question marks, Gonzaga’s ceiling and floor seem miles apart. It’s possible that Few takes the undeniable talent that he has and crafts it into another Sweet 16 team. It’s also possible that this group lacks a true star and never quite fits together, leading the Bulldogs to their first missed tournament since the Clinton Administration.

Projected lineup:

G Silas Melson, Senior
G Josh Perkins, Junior
F Rui Hachimura, Sophomore
F Johnathan Williams, Senior
C Jacob Larsen, Sophomore

Key reserves: F Killian Tillie (sophomore), G Zach Norvell Jr. (RS freshman), F Corey Kispert (freshman), G Jesse Wade (freshman), F Jeremy Jones (junior)

How Gonzaga can succeed: Jacob Larsen fulfills his potential and becomes a dominant force inside

Larsen, the only true center on the roster, has produced at every stop he’s made so far. He was MVP of the 2013 FIBA U16 Division B European Championship, where he averaged 20.0 points and 12.1 rebounds. Two years later, he averaged 16.7 and 6.7 at the Adidas Next Generation tournament. He also played in the NBA’s Basketball Without Borders event.

Supposedly, the 6’11 Danish big man has added about 25 pounds of muscle in the offseason.

That’s the good part. The other part is that Larsen blew out his knee in the preseason last year and hasn’t played competitive basketball since. He was a four-star recruit and if he truly is healthy, stronger, and better, Gonzaga will be set inside, not only this year but for the next few seasons.

A productive Larsen will do more than just provide the stats you expect to see out of a post player. He would also take pressure off Tillie and Rui Hachimura, who will both need to take steps forward this season. Williams and Larsen together down low could be an elite presence in the West Coast Conference and a formidable challenge for Jock Landale at St. Mary’s.

And that should help Hachimura, who lit up the FIBA U-19 Championships over the summer. While it sounds like he is one of the most improved players in the WCC, he will be able to prove it at the three, where he can showcase his raw athleticism.

A strong frontcourt core of Larsen, Williams, Hachimura, and Tillie will then make the backcourt’s job infinitely easier, as they won’t need to shoulder as much of a scoring burden and can keep the court balanced.

How the Bulldogs could go home early: Williams and Perkins don’t get the help they need and Gonzaga doesn’t have the firepower to compete.

Williams and Perkins are the known commodities; Williams should be a consistent double-double threat and Perkins will run the offense.

Beyond that, talk about Gonzaga’s prospects includes a lot of “if this, then that” sentences. If Norvell and Wade aren’t both ready to contribute, then the Bulldogs really don’t have anyone to spell Perkins and Melson. If Hachimura’s summer was a mere aberration, then maybe that pushes Williams out to the wing more often, where he is less effective. If Larsen isn’t as advertised, then Tillie will have to go from role player to significant contributor immediately.

The scary part is that it’s all so hard to predict at this point, as four out of the nine players who figure to be in the rotation have yet to play a collegiate game. The team is stacked with four-star recruits, which is great. But these aren’t the instant-superstar one-and-done guys who can power a blueblood to overnight contention.

This is going to be a grind for Few and his staff. It’s going to be a struggle. There may be some growing pains and head-scratching losses.

By no means does that mean this can’t be a successful season.