Ohio State is the Big Ten title contender no one saw coming

There are a couple teams each year that surpass preseason expectations, and by mid-January, we look at their roster and say, “yeah, we should have seen this coming.”

Ohio State is not one of those teams.

The Buckeyes are 16-4 (7-0 in the Big Ten) and are on a collision course with the NCAA tournament. Three months ago, there was absolutely no reason to think that was possible.

Ohio State fired Thad Matta last June, when the college basketball coaching carousel had mostly stopped. It was right as the summer recruiting season was nearing its climax and well before 2017 recruits became locked into their college commitments.

In other words, this was not a move you make if your goal is to contend the next season. It’s a move you make if you want to use 2017-18 as a year to build toward future success. And that was understandable. JaQuan Lyle had just transferred and Trevor Thompson had unexpectedly turned pro. The Buckeyes also lost Darius Bazley, the top-rated prospect in Ohio, who re-opened his recruitment in late April. There were other recruiting whiffs, both among high school prospects and potential transfers.

It would have been pointless for Matta to spend the next season as a lame duck coach.

The Buckeyes eventually hired Chris Holtmann — a young coach from Butler with a history of overachieving.

Overachieving in his first year at Ohio State could have reasonably meant an NIT bid. That’s how depleted Ohio State’s roster seemed, especially compared to the talent in the Big Ten. To just be competitive, everything needed to break the Buckeyes’ way.

Behind Keita Bates-Diop, C.J. Jackson, and Jae’Sean Tate, that has happened, and more.

The first thing Ohio State needed was for Bates-Diop to return to form after redshirting last year with a stress fracture in his left leg. Bates-Diop averaged 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game in 2015-16, his last full season, but few could have expected him to turn into a Big Ten Player of the Year candidate, posting 20 and nine averages in 2017-18. The junior currently ranks sixth in the national KenPom Player of the Year standings and ranks in the top 10 in the Big Ten in three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, offensive rating, block rate, and turnover rate.

A silver lining to Ohio State’s 2-5 finish to last season was Jackson’s sudden scoring prowess to go along with his ability to distribute. Jackson posted two 18-point performances and shot 56 percent from three in that stretch. This season, he is a 41 percent three-point shooter and has reached double figures in 15 of the Buckeyes’ 20 games. He’s also averaging 4.6 assists after starting point guard duties were unexpectedly thrust on him with Lyle’s departure. His turnover numbers ballooned to start this season, but after a benching from Holtmann, he’s turned it around and now boasts an assist-to-turnover ratio approaching 2:1.

Ohio State has little depth, particularly in the backcourt, so Jackson must be a steady presence for the Buckeyes to navigate the Big Ten.

That lack of depth was always going to be a problem. Bates-Diop, Jackson, and Tate are three studs who may be asked to do too much. But freshman Kaleb Wesson has been a pleasant surprise. He’s been a consistent presence on the boards and is learning to stay out of foul trouble. Micah Potter had his best game since returning from injury when he scored a team-high 13 points Wednesday against Northwestern. As long as he can contribute and Kyle Young or Andre Wesson can provide some minutes as well, Ohio State has enough in the frontcourt.

In the backcourt, Andrew Dakich has come out of nowhere to suddenly be an important piece to the team. The transfer from Michigan did nothing to wow fans in the early going this season, but since Dec. 19, he’s averaging about three assists per game and has committed only four total turnovers. Then there’s Kam Williams, who struggled mightily early on but is 13 for his last 18 from three.

Many teams that get off to surprising starts can be expected to slow down when conference play revs up. But the Buckeyes have played some of their best games of the season, per KenPom, over the past two weeks. Bob Baptist of The Athletic pointed out earlier this week that they have become ruthlessly efficient on offense. They beat Iowa, a team that plays fast, 92-81, by scoring better than 1.2 points per possession. They also beat Rutgers by 22 in a game that only featured 61 possessions. Pair that with a top-20 defense nationally, and it’s no wonder that Holtmann is now the first Ohio State coach in almost a century to start the season 7-0 in the Big Ten.

Not bad for a rebuilding year.