Deandre Ayton was always supposed to be basketball’s next big thing. As a sophomore, Ayton was named the best long-term prospect at the high school level by Scout.com — over seniors like Ben Simmons and Jaylen Brown and juniors like Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson.
Deandre Ayton is college basketball’s physical freak who will remind you of ‘90s greats
Ayton is the one true unicorn in college basketball.
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Ricky O'Donnell has covered basketball at all levels for more than a decade at SB Nation. He’s currently the Associate Director of Programming.
In that sense, the flat-out dominance Ayton has shown at Arizona two months into his college career is a formality, not a revelation.
There isn’t a more physically imposing player in the sport. It’s not just that Ayton is 7’1, 260 pounds and with a near 7’6 wingspan. It’s not just that he’s incredibly light on his feet, a vacuum on the glass and able to finish anything remotely near the basket with a merciless dunk. It isn’t only his burgeoning skill level and his supreme confidence in a rapidly improving jump shot.
For Ayton, it’s the total package. There is no one in college basketball this big, this athletic, and this skilled. In June, he’ll be one of the top three picks in the NBA draft. For now, he’s laying waste to one NCAA frontcourt after another.
By averaging 19.7 points and 11.9 rebounds with a 66.7 true shooting percentage, Ayton is putting up big man numbers that essentially haven’t been seen before. As impressive as those statistical benchmarks are, it’s still the sheer physicality that stands out.
Ayton is incredibly explosive for someone his size
To watch Ayton is to see a lot of that: a combination of athletic grace and power which simply does not come along often. He looks like David Robinson or Patrick Ewing, star NBA centers from a time gone by who once felt like the ultimate matchup nightmare. That’s what Ayton is developing into.
There’s subtlety to his explosiveness. Watch how he’s able to jump two or three times before opposing defenders can get off the ground once. That’s either going to lead to a dunk or, at worst, free throws.
Ayton is a 260-pound jumping jack who could have a long pro career based on that alone. But that’s just part of his game.
His skill level is rising — starting with his jumper
If there’s a problem with Ayton at Arizona, it might be that he loves his face-up game too much. No one can stop him inside at the college level, so it’s hard to blame Sean Miller if he would prefer him to live in the paint.
But long term? Ayton’s face-up game is going to be a huge weapon. He can already space the floor out to the three-point line. The work he’s putting in now is only going to make him better.
Credit Miller for running these plays for Ayton: He has the green light on threes and also gets a bevy of pick-and-pop opportunities. Arizona gave Ayton a pair of baseline jumpers to start off its massive home win against No. 3 Arizona State last weekend. Ayton missed both, but it kept him engaged the whole night. He finished with 23 points and 19 rebounds.
More often than not, he’s knocking those shots down:
Ayton’s percentages don’t yet show how competent and confidence he is as a shooter. He’s 7-of-23 on threes (30.4 percent) so far and has made 70 percent of his free throws. Those aren’t overly impressive numbers, but anyone who watches him can tell he’s getting better. This is a big man who shot 81 percent from the foul line in high school on Nike’s EYBL circuit.
The jumper isn’t the only aspect of his rising skill level. Just look at this move against Alabama:
How many 7’1 guys can throw the ball behind their back on a crossover like that? I’ll help: not many.
So what’s the catch?
A player this long and athletic should be a dominant shot-blocker. For Ayton, it’s the part of his game that needs the most work.
Ayton’s block rate of 5 percent is in Jahlil Okafor territory. It ranks among lowest for centers taken in the top 10 this decade. Compare him with Texas phenom Mohamed Bamba — another likely top-five pick this year — who is posting a block rate of 16.8 percent.
It’s a question of instincts, not physicality for Ayton. A player like Marc Gasol doesn’t have anything close to his physical tools, but he’s a master at reading the floor and knowing where he’s supposed to be. Ayton is still figuring it out.
The secret about Ayton is he’s always been more comfortable guarding the perimeter than the rim. As a recruit playing for Cal Supreme on the EYBL, he paired with a shot-blocking center in UNLV star freshman (and fellow McDonald’s All-American) Brandon McCoy. At Arizona, he’s sharing most of his minutes with another true center, Dusan Ristic. That won’t be the case in a modern NBA that keeps trending smaller. Someone Ayton’s size is going to be the five by default.
Ayton has all the potential in the world
Ayton’s lack of polish on defense means he’s not a finished product yet. That’s to be expected for a 19-year-old. But of all the top big men in the 2018 NBA draft, he has the best combination of size and skills.
Bamba is superior defensively, but he’s nowhere close to Ayton on offense. Duke’s Marvin Bagley III can put up similar scoring and rebounding numbers at the college level, he’s not nearly as big as Ayton, and is even worse on defense. Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. can block shots and stretch the floor, but he doesn’t have Ayton’s athleticism.
At this point, Ayton is a unicorn in training wheels: a player with unlimited potential who is still learning the nuances of the game. On size and skill alone, it’s easy to compare him to 76ers star Joel Embiid. Then you remember Embiid was immediately one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA as a rookie, while Ayton still needs to make major strides on that end.
He has plenty of time for that. For now, Ayton is the most dominant physical presence in the sport. With the one-and-done rule in peril, enjoy Ayton while you still can. College basketball might not see another center like him for a long time.
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