College basketball Bracketology: Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, and Kentucky are No. 1 seeds

Not only are the Kansas Jayhawks at the top of both the preseason bracket projection and both the AP and coaches’ polls, but the rest of the top four is consistent between all three, with the Duke Blue Devils, Kentucky Wildcats and Gonzaga Bulldogs filling the top lines heading into the start of a new year.

The Bulldogs are the most controversial choice here, thanks to the ankle injury that will keep forward Killian Tillie out for Gonzaga’s entire—hefty—non-conference slate. But I suspect the Zags still have enough depth to pick up some quality wins before West Coast Conference play begins in January. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are also not without their detractors, thanks to the many mentions of Bill Self’s program during the recently-concluded college basketball corruption trial in New York. Will those name drops serve as a cloud over the Kansas program or motivation for Jayhawk players?

Those questions mean the door is very much open for the rest of the nation, particularly the teams seeded on lines two through four, as a quartet of Duke’s ACC rivals, a trio of the teams likely to challenge Kentucky for the SEC crown, KU’s main Big 12 title rival, the defending national champs from Villanova, and the Big Ten, Pac-12 and, yes, Mountain West favorites all rank among the first projected top 16.

To make things easier on those of you reading on mobile devices or tablets, I’ve adjusted this season’s bracket format. We’ll start with the left half of the bracket, with the projected No. 1 and 4 overall seeds, then jump over to the right, home of the No. 2 and 3 overall seeds. As always, teams holding a conference’s auto bid in this projection are followed by their league name in parentheses.

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)
(1) Kansas Jayhawks (Big 12) vs. (16) Texas Southern Tigers (SWAC)/Lehigh Mountain Hawks (Patriot)
(8) Butler Bulldogs vs. (9) Virginia Tech Hokies

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Marquette Golden Eagles vs. (12) Nebraska Cornhuskers/Illinois State Redbirds
(4) Florida Gators vs. (13) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (Summit)

Des Moines (Thu./Sat.)
(6) Texas Longhorns vs. (11) Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes
(3) Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten) vs. (14) Vermont Catamounts (America East)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10) vs. (10) UCLA Bruins
(2) Virginia Cavaliers vs. (15) Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)
(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC) vs. (16) Radford Highlanders (Big South)
(8) Wisconsin Badgers vs. (9) Cincinnati Bearcats

Tulsa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. (12) Loyola Chicago Ramblers (MVC)
(4) Florida State Seminoles vs. (13) New Mexico State Aggies (WAC)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)
(6) Michigan Wolverines vs. (11) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (C-USA)
(3) Auburn Tigers vs. (14) Georgia State Panthers (Sun Belt)

San Jose (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Washington Huskies vs. (10) N.C. State Wolfpack
(2) Nevada Wolf Pack (Mountain West) vs. (15) UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Duke Blue Devils (ACC) vs. (16) St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (NEC)/Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (MEAC)
(8) UCF Knights (American) vs. (9) Creighton Bluejays

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)
(5) Clemson Tigers vs. (12) Buffalo Bulls (MAC)
(4) West Virginia Mountaineers vs. (13) Harvard Crimson (Ivy)

San Jose (Fri./Sun.)
(6) TCU Horned Frogs vs. (11) South Carolina Gamecocks
(3) Oregon Ducks (Pac-12) vs. (14) Lipscomb Bisons (ASUN)

Columbia (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (10) Arizona State Sun Devils
(2) Tennessee Volunteers vs. (15) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (Southland)

Columbus (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Kentucky Wildcats (SEC) vs. (16) Northern Kentucky Norse (Horizon)
(8) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (9) Indiana Hoosiers

Salt Lake City (Thu./Sat.)
(5) Kansas State Wildcats vs. (12) Northeastern Huskies (CAA)
(4) Syracuse Orange vs. (13) UNC Greensboro Spartans (Southern)

Jacksonville (Thu./Sat.)
(6) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (11) BYU Cougars/Alabama Crimson Tide
(3) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (14) Belmont Bruins (OVC)

Hartford (Thu./Sat.)
(7) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (10) Maryland Terrapins
(2) Villanova Wildcats (Big East) vs. (15) Rider Broncs (MAAC)

Last Four Byes: N.C. State, Arizona State, Miami (Fla.), South Carolina
Last Four IN: Nebraska, BYU, Illinois State, Alabama
First Four OUT: Louisville Cardinals, Utah Utes, Houston Cougars, St. John’s Red Storm
Next Four Out: Missouri Tigers, SMU Mustangs, Minnesota Golden Gophers, Texas A&M Aggies

Also Considered: As it’s preseason, 37 other teams got a look.

Bids by Conference: 9 ACC, 8 Big Ten, 7 Big 12, 7 SEC, 4 Big East, 3 Pac-12, 2 American, 2 Missouri Valley, 2 West Coast, 23 one-bid conferences

Heading into the 2018-19 season, the ACC again looks to be the strongest league nationally, while the Big 12 and SEC should maintain their excellence of a season ago. But that’s where the stability ends, as the Big Ten could rebound from a down 2017-18, thanks to both an expanded conference schedule of 20 games and the resulting shorter, improved non-conference slates. In turn, the Big East and American Athletic look likely to take a step or two back. As for the Pac-12 ... maybe they won’t go 0-3 in NCAA games this season? In terms of the mid-major ranks, while I project that the Missouri Valley and West Coast will pick up second bids this season, I wouldn’t sell the Atlantic 10 or Conference USA short.

My annual non-conference scheduling analysis played a major role in developing this early projection, particularly around the cut line. Alabama, BYU, Illinois State and Nebraska all received nods over Houston, St. John’s and Utah because of the latter group’s noticeably inferior November and December matchups. With the Cougars, Red Storm and Utes all in conferences that could struggle this season, they can’t necessarily count on getting enough quality wins from January through March to compensate for their weaker fall slates.

As always, preseason bracketology is a fool’s errand, as just 38 teams from 2017’s data-free projection ended up making the final field of 68. That was a decline of two of the 40 correct November picks from 2016. And with the NCAA finally disposing of the perennially-derided Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) in favor of a new advanced metric called the NCAA Evaluation Tool or NET (get it?), those of us in the bracketology biz are heading into this season with plenty of questions about how it could affect the selection and seeding processes.

Even though the new metric has some added wrinkles, like net offensive and defensive efficiency and a (capped) margin-of-victory measure, many of the components are ones previously included in the RPI. Making matters even more mysterious, the NET is a proprietary measure and not an easily duplicated formula like the RPI. That means it’s going to take a bit time to get a good handle of how it treats teams, particularly those from outside of the power conferences. So, February’s bracket sneak preview is going to be particularly interesting as it will give us the first solid picture of how the Selection Committee is using its new tool. But until we get a better idea of the data, I’m going to continue to do bracket projections as I always have.

Thanks to the earliest start to a season in college basketball history, the road to Minneapolis will take just a few days longer to unfold. Sit back and enjoy the ride.