Happy 2017-18 college basketball season! Thankfully, the ugliest offseason in memory is now over, even if the news of the last seven months might still have ramifications on how this campaign plays out. But for the moment, it’s time to focus on the actual road to San Antonio and the 351 teams that are about to begin their journeys.
Preseason Bracketology: Duke (again) starts the season at the top
No, this isn’t just a copy-and-paste of last season’s November projection.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
For the second season in a row, the top-ranked team in the preseason—the Duke Blue Devils—are the No. 1 overall seed in my November bracket projection.
But the ACC favorites aren’t the only team making a repeat appearance in the bracket’s upper reaches. The Kansas Jayhawks join the Blue Devils in returning to the top line, while a trio of Wildcats—from Arizona, Kentucky, and Villanova—all rank among the top eight teams after beginning 2016-17 on the top three seed lines.
And who can forget the defending national champion North Carolina Tar Heels? They start off as a two seed for the second straight year. That leaves just the Michigan State Spartans (a four seed last November) and USC Trojans (completely absent) as the only teams that truly jumped up to the top eight.
After the full preseason bracket and rundown (including a surprising look at the early conference breakdown), I’ll share my thoughts on a few teams whose postseason hopes depend on their responses to offseason news—of both the positive and negative varieties.
1. South (Left) and 2. Midwest (Right)
Atlanta (Thu/Sat) | Omaha (Fri/Sun) |
|---|---|
| Charlotte (Fri/Sun) | Detroit (Fri/Sun) |
| 1. Duke (ACC) | 1. Michigan State (Big Ten) |
| 16. UNC Asheville/N.C. Central | 16. Texas Southern (SWAC) |
| 8. Wisconsin | 8. SMU |
| 9. Texas | 9. UCLA |
| Boise (Thu/Sat) | Dallas (Thu/Sat) |
| 5. Baylor | 5. Texas A&M |
| 12. Harvard (Ivy) | 12. Middle Tennessee (C-USA) |
| 4. Xavier | 4. Notre Dame |
| 13. UT Arlington (Sun Belt) | 13. Missouri State (MVC) |
| Pittsburgh (Thu/Sat) | Detroit (Fri/Sun) |
| 6. Providence | 6. Purdue |
| 11. Arkansas/UCF | 11. Colorado State/Alabama |
| 3. West Virginia | 3. Cincinnati (American) |
| 14. Oakland (Horizon) | 14. New Mexico State (WAC) |
| Nashville (Fri/Sun) | San Diego (Fri/Sun) |
| 7. Oregon | 7. Saint Mary's |
| 10. Temple | 10. Creighton |
| 2. Kentucky (SEC) | 2. USC |
| 15. South Dakota St. (Summit) | 15. Hawai'i (Big West) |
4. East (Left) and 3. West (Right)
Boston (Fri/Sun) | Los Angeles(Thu/Sat) |
|---|---|
| Wichita (Thu/Sat) | San Diego (Fri/Sun) |
| 1. Kansas (Big 12) | 1. Arizona (Pac-12) |
| 16. Montana/St. Francis (Pa.) | 16. Stephen F. Austin (Southland) |
| 8. Michigan | 8. TCU |
| 9. Utah | 9. Vanderbilt |
| Dallas (Thu/Sat) | Boise (Thu/Sat) |
| 5. Wichita State | 5. Gonzaga (WCC) |
| 12. Vermont (AE) | 12. Nevada (MW) |
| 4. Miami (Fla.) | 4. Louisville |
| 13. Iona (MAAC) | 13. Belmont (OVC) |
| Nashville (Fri/Sun) | Wichita (Thu/Sat) |
| 6. Northwestern | 6. Virginia |
| 11. Bucknell (Patriot) | 11. Stanford |
| 3. Florida | 3. Minnesota |
| 14. College of Charleston (CAA) | 14. Western Michigan (MAC) |
| Pittsburgh (Thu/Sat) | Charlotte (Fri/Sun) |
| 7. Rhode Island (A 10) | 7. Seton Hall |
| 10. Missouri | 10. Saint Joseph's |
| 2. Villanova (Big East) | 2. North Carolina |
| 15. FGCU (ASUN) | 15. Mercer (SoCon) |
First Four
SOUTH | EAST | SOUTH | MIDWEST |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Charlotte (Wed.) | To Wichita (Tue.) | To Pittsburgh (Tue.) | To Detroit (Wed.) |
| 16. UNC Asheville (Big South) | 16. Montana (Big Sky) | 11. Arkansas | 11. Colorado State |
| 16. N.C. Central (MEAC) | 16. St. Francis (Pa.) (NEC) | 11. UCF | 11. Alabama |
Rundown
LAST EIGHT IN | FIRST EIGHT OUT | ARRIVALS | DEPARTURES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | Oklahoma | Alabama | Butler |
| Creighton | St. Bonaventure | Belmont | Dayton |
| Missouri | Virginia Tech | College of Charleston | ETSU |
| Stanford | Iowa | Colorado State | Florida State |
| Arkansas (Dayton) | Marquette | Harvard | Iowa State |
| UCF (Dayton) | Florida State | Hawaii | Jacksonville State |
| Colorado State (Dayton) | Arizona State | Mercer | Kansas State |
| Alabama (Dayton) | Butler | Missouri | Kent State |
| Missouri State | Marquette | ||
| Montana | Maryland | ||
| Oakland | Mount St. Mary's | ||
| Saint Joseph's | New Orleans | ||
| St. Francis (Pa.) | North Dakota | ||
| Stanford | Northern Kentucky | ||
| Stephen F. Austin | Oklahoma State | ||
| TCU | Princeton | ||
| Temple | South Carolina | ||
| Texas | Troy | ||
| Texas A&M | UC Davis | ||
| UCF | UNCW | ||
| UNC Asheville | VCU | ||
| UT Arlington | Virginia Tech | ||
| Utah | Wake Forest | ||
| Western Michigan | Winthrop |
Surprisingly, no single conference dominates the bid picture on Opening Day. While the SEC leads the way with seven teams (including two among the “Last Four In”), the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 aren’t far behind, providing six teams each. And the American Athletic, Big 12, and Big East all stand just a step back, sending five entrants apiece. Finally, the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, and West Coast conferences are all two-bid leagues.
In making these projections, I leaned heavily upon my non-conference schedule rankings, which explains why the Colorado State Rams rank among the final teams in, while the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, Virginia Tech Hokies, and Iowa Hawkeyes all find themselves on the wrong side of the cut line on Nov. 10.
As I alluded to previously, offseason news factored rather heavily into this bracket:
- Naturally, the FBI investigation into college basketball recruiting practices had the biggest impact. Sure, Arizona, a program affected by the scandal is a top seed, but the Wildcats haven’t seen their coach forced out. That, in short, is why the Louisville Cardinals, an early top-five team according to some publications, find themselves on the four line here. The Miami Hurricanes, another squad linked to the mess, join the Cardinals as a No. 4 seed, when they also could have been higher.
- The Alabama Crimson Tide featured in the first version of this bracket I drafted back on Monday. But then highly-touted recruit Collin Sexton was declared ineligible because of his apparent connections to several people involved in the FBI investigation. That knocked the Tide out and brought the Oklahoma Sooners in. But then last night, Alabama announced that Sexton would be eligible after all, after he sits out tonight’s opener with the Memphis Tigers. So, Bama is back in today’s projection as the very last team in.
- A trio of UCLA Bruins, including LiAngelo Ball, were arrested for shoplifting in China on Wednesday. While that bad idea to potentially end all bad ideas didn’t knock the Bruins out of this projection, it cost them serious positioning.
- Finally, on the positive side, the Wichita State Shockers jumped from the Missouri Valley to the American Athletic Conference. While Gregg Marshall’s team finds itself in the top 10 of both preseason polls, they’re only a five seed here. Why? Well, I really want to see how well the Shockers handle the jump up in competition—particularly since their main rival for the conference crown, the Cincinnati Bearcats, are also capable of landing a high seed in the real bracket come March.
Just remember that there will be plenty of twists and turns between now and Selection Sunday. A mere 40 of the teams in my Nov. 2016 projection found themselves in the real thing four months later—a decline of one team from the 41 correct picks I made heading into the 2015-16 season. Curiously, my one-bid conference champion picks (seven, compared to five the season before), teams seeded correctly (seven in 2016-17 vs. five in 2015-16) and teams seeded within one line (13 last year, nine in 2015) all improved between 2015 and 2016.
Even considering those numbers, it would be foolish to think that everything predicted here will pan out on Sunday, March 11. And figuring out what will go wrong is half of the fun of a new season. Enjoy the ride!
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