Cinderellas come in slippers of all sizes.
The 7 types of Cinderella teams you should trust in your NCAA tournament bracket
Every Cinderella fits a profile. Here are the numbers to you need to choose wisely.
Since 2000, 50 men’s basketball teams seeded No. 8 or lower have made the Sweet 16. Of those, 15 have made the Elite Eight and another eight the Final Four, though none has won the NCAA tournament altogether. (No. 8 seeds are an arbitrary cutoff, as those are the schools who have to beat a No. 1 in their second game to make the regional rounds.)
An examination of those 50 underdogs to get past the opening weekend reveals all kinds of pathways to the Sweet 16 and beyond. The average 8 seed or lower to get that far this century has a record of about 23-9 on Selection Sunday, with a rating of 46th in points per 100 possessions, adjusted for schedule, and 50th on defense. The most defining statistic trait overall is taking care of the ball, as the average No. 8-seeded-or-worse Sweet 16 team finished the year 89th in turnover rate out of about 350 Division I teams.
Only 18 of the 50 have won conference championships before the tournament. They’ve ranged in experience, from no seniors in their rotations to seven.
There are a bunch of ways to shock the world. But if you’re trying to pick the field, a couple Cinderella prototypes have emerged over time. Let’s meet them.
The little school never misses a shot
Previously: 2003 Butler (12 seed), 2008 Davidson (10), 2010 Saint Mary’s (10), 2010 Cornell (12), and a bunch of lower-seeded Gonzaga teams.
Potential 2018 pick: Loyola Chicago (11),
Those teams were all in the top 30 nationally in effective field goal percentage, with a couple of them finishing in the top three. Anybody can get hot, but teams that flash elite shooting all year are better bets than most. Stephen Curry’s ‘08 Davidson team shot 50 percent from three in an opening-round win against Gonzaga, then weirdly beat Georgetown on a bad shooting night to punch a regional ticket. In 2010, Cornell had two epic shooting games to knock out Temple and Wisconsin on the opening weekend.
Loyola entered this tournament ranked No. 8 in effective field goal percentage, which gives appropriate weight to three-point shots. The Ramblers can knock shots down.
The mid-major upstart that plays shockingly stingy defense
Previously: 2006 George Mason (11), 2010 UNI (9).
Potential 2018 pick: New Mexico State (12), Wright State (11) Loyola Chicago (11)
Both of those teams were No. 13 in the country in points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for schedule. George Mason was suffocating in its Final Four run, especially in games against North Carolina and Wichita State. Mason’s interior defense, which was particularly strong all season, sealed off UNC’s and Michigan State’s more talented bigs. UNI won a couple of squeakers against UNLV and top-seeded Kansas. The Panthers’ round-of-32 win against KU featured them holding the country’s No. 2 offense to 67 inefficient points.
Wright State and Loyola — the Ramblers keep coming up — both grade out well defensively. New Mexico State is No. 14 nationally in that defensive efficiency state, making the Aggies a real danger. If a team goes cold against them, it won’t be easy to dig out from a whole.
THE CHAOS TEAM
Previously: 2004 UAB (9), 2005 Milwaukee (12), 2008 WKU (12), 2010 Washington (11), 2012 Ohio (13).
Potential 2018 pick: Marshall (13) Lipscomb (15)
These teams are defined by some combination of rapid offensive pace, a voracious lust for offensive rebounds, and a high-pressure defense that leads to bunches of turnovers. They’re dangerous draws, especially for teams that struggle with any of conditioning, ball security, and boxing out.
When Bruce Pearl’s Milwaukee beat Alabama and Boston College en route to the ‘05 Sweet 16, the Panthers forced turnovers on about three in every 10 defensive possessions. When UAB beat top-seeded Kentucky in ‘04, by 1 point, the Blazers somehow got back 44 percent of their misses against Tubby Smith’s highly recruited Wildcats. That was wild.
Marshall and Lipscomb both entered the tournament in the top six nationally in adjusted possessions per 40 minutes. They both love to run, and track meets can be volatile. Lipscomb also forces a lot of turnovers, making the Bisons extra intriguing.
The power-conference team that’s seeded lower than its talent level
Previously: 2014 Kentucky (8), 2016 Syracuse (10)
Potential 2018 pick: Missouri (8), Syracuse (11)
If a team with several five-star recruits loses 10 or 13 games and winds up seeded in this neighborhood, all it means is that the most lovable No. 1 seed possible (like, say, Wichita State in 2014) is going to have to play that team and probably lose to it in the round of 32.
Syracuse was the last at-large team in the field, but Jim Boeheim’s team is skilled as usual. Missouri has five-star all-world freshman Michael Porter Jr. coming off an injury, making the Tigers a wild card with tremendous upside if Porter gets churning.
The mid-major that ruffles a few feathers by getting in ahead of bigger schools on the bubble but turns out to have a great offense
Previously: 2006 Bradley (13), 2013 La Salle (13).
Potential 2018 pick: St. Bonaventure (11)
Neither of these teams had an auto-bid. Both could’ve easily missed the field. But Bradley had one of the fastest-paced in the country and ran up efficient 70-something scores in wins against No. 4 and No. 5 seeds Kansas and Pitt. La Salle had a plodding but even more efficient scoring attack and used it to put 76 on a good Ole Miss defense in the round of 32. The non-power leagues have lots of quietly good offenses.
The Bonnies didn’t win the Atlantic 10, but they can shoot. They had a top-20 three-point percentage and a top-60 offense by efficiency. They’re absolutely capable of getting hot, and they take good care of the ball. They were 2-0 against power conference teams during the regular season, so they’re not overmatched against more talented opposition.
The sloths who shorten games by taking forever on offense, not turning the ball over, and generally keeping offense to a minimum
Previously: 2011 Richmond (12), 2011 Butler (8), 2014 Tennessee (11), 2017 Wisconsin (8).
Potential 2018 pick: College of Charleston (13), Radford (16)
It’s basic basketball theory: Take an eternity every time you have the ball, so you limit the number of possessions in the game. That makes it easier to keep the game closer for longer, and that gives a better chance to win at the end.
Richmond scored in the 60s in its two wins. Butler never scored more than 74 en route to the national final. Tennessee moved really gingerly in beating No. 6 Iowa in the first round, and Wisconsin beat No. 1 seed and defending champion Villanova in one of the Badgers’ slowest-played games of the year, 65-62.
Radford is a 16th seed and won’t beat Villanova unless something absurd happens, if the Highlanders even get beyond the First Four. But they could keep the game close for a while. C of C also takes its time and has a more favorable matchup against
The Cinderella that makes no sense and is really, totally unpredictable, but captures our hearts all the same
Previously: 2015 Florida Gulf Coast (15)
Potential 2018 pick: Any low seed you haven’t seen listed above.
There’s no planning for a team that started playing Division I basketball in 2010 to make the tournament a couple of years later and then toss alley-oops all over Georgetown. We might never see another Dunk City, but that’d be the entire college hoops world’s loss.
Some teams have one or two standout attributes that make it easier to see their Cinderella runs coming. Others don’t, and there’s no need to try to explain the inexplicable.
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