March Madness predictions 2018: Arizona is going to troll the NCAA and win the national championship

I’m not sure I’ve ever had this much trouble filling out a bracket. There are just so many matchups that look like coin flips to me and there’s no way I can pick a team with any level of confidence. But I tried to do it anyway, and in doing so, I noticed I how much I like Arizona this year.

As I kept penciling the Wildcats further into the tournament, I decided an Arizona national championship would be the perfect ending to the most dysfunctional college basketball season ever, on and off the court.

Here’s how I see the whole tournament playing out:

Winner: Arizona over Cincinnati
Biggest Upset: Loyola over Miami

Let’s be honest: Take away the Battle 4 Atlantis disaster way back in November and Arizona is a whole lot better than a No. 4 seed. In fact, the Wildcats have looked more like a 1 or 2 for the majority of the season. DeAndre Ayton is starting to look like the national player of the year and I’m not sure Virginia has the personnel to stop him.

Loyola is the trendy upset pick over Miami and for good reason: the Ramblers are really, really good, and Miami has struggled through bouts of inconsistency all year. I always like picking mid-majors with a bona fide star who can steady the team when the favorite makes a run late in the game, and that’s who Clayton Custer is. The MVC player of the year is Loyola’s rock in the backcourt, while inside, the team relies on freshman star and conference rookie of the year Cameron Krutwig.

Winner: North Carolina over Xavier
Biggest Upset: San Diego State over Houston

Xavier is the 1-seed everyone expects to be bounced first, so, naturally, I’m inclined to take them to go far. But not all the way to San Antonio. I like North Carolina just a TINY bit more. Seriously, the determining factor here is that UNC is seven spots higher in KenPom. Both are outstanding teams and could make it to the Final Four. Elsewhere in the region, people are going to want to take Mike Daum and South Dakota State over Ohio State. I get it and seriously considered doing so myself. But the Buckeyes haven’t lost to a team outside the KenPom top 30 all year and they have the guys to challenge Daum. I’ll protect myself by taking Gonzaga to beat the winner of that one regardless. Then, you can give me a red-hot San Diego State team over Houston in the 6-11 game. Not a huge upset, but I’m feeling good about it.

Winner: Villanova over Florida
Biggest Upset: Marshall over Wichita State

Want to hear a secret? In my real bracket, I think I’m going to take Collin Sexton and Alabama over Villanova in the Second Round. But that’s because I like to pick crazy stuff. I can’t in good faith sit here and recommend you pick against Jalen Brunson and Co. until the Elite Eight at minimum, and maybe not even then. Watch out for Florida, though. The Gators were maddening at times this year but have the experience and potential to catch fire at the right time. Also, how badly do you want to see Chris Chiozza in a Final Four? For an upset, I’m taking Marshall over (Gregg) Marshall. Wichita State is obviously the better team, but if you want to see something bonkers happen, a good bet is to go with the underdog that plays at an abnormally fast pace (sixth in adjusted tempo per KenPom, third in possession length) and has one of the most underrated guards in the country (Jon Elmore).

Winner: Michigan State over Kansas
Biggest Upset: That there won’t be one

This is by far my most boring region and I won’t apologize for it. People are going to want to take New Mexico State over Clemson and maybe even Auburn in the Second Round, but I’m not sold on the Aggies. They’ve got the dudes, don’t get me wrong — Zach Lofton, Jemerrio Jones, and Eli Chuha could all be household names if they make a run — but this is the same team that in three consecutive games lost to Utah Valley and Seattle, then were less-than-impressive against a horrendous Chicago State team. You may have forgotten that Clemson is still good, actually, and is one of the best defensive teams in the country. It’s tough to upset a team like that.

Semifinals: Michigan State over Villanova; Arizona over North Carolina
National Championship: Arizona over Michigan State

I had to decide which conference’s championship streak would come to an end — the Pac-12, which hasn’t won a title since 1995, or the Big Ten, which hasn’t won since 2000. Tie goes to the school that got Sean Miller back on the sidelines and Allonzo Trier on the court.