In the NCAA tournament, No. 16 seeds were 0-135 against No. 1 seeds dating back to 1985 when the field expanded to 64 teams. That makes a lot of sense, since the committee intentionally pits the worst four teams in the tournament against the four best. This is the expected outcome.
A No. 16 over No. 1 upset never happened before. Until UMBC in 2018
UMBC beat Virginia to break the 135-game drought.
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
But at some point, this winless streak had to end, right?
That some point came Friday night, when the UMBC Retrievers shocked the top overall seed Virginia Cavaliers.
Here is a look at the chances of this happening heading into the 2018 NCAA Tournament.
So who are the No. 16 seeds, and who are they playing against?
University of Maryland-Baltimore County (not the Terps) plays No. 1 overall Virginia, Radford plays Villanova, Texas Southern will play Xavier, and the University of Pennsylvania will play Kansas.
Are any of these teams good?
Umm.
OK, but which team has the best chance to upset?
The one 16-vs.-1 matchup everyone’s paying attention to is Penn-Kansas. That’s because Kansas is one of the weakest top seeds in recent memory, while, according to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO Ratings, the Quakers are the best 16-seed ever.
Don’t confuse the meaning of that though. The Jayhawks are still a much better team in almost every way than the Ivy League tournament champs, but Penn has a legitimate gripe for being under-seeded. KenPom ranks the Quakers No. 128 in the country, which is higher than No. 14 Wright State, three of the No. 15 seeds, and the three other No. 16 seeds.
What does Penn do well?
Penn has a top-75 defense, and rebounds well on the defensive end. The Quakers also shoot well from two-point range, and force a lot of steals. Of course, aside from steals, Kansas is better than Penn at all of the Quakers’ best strengths, and is significantly better in all of their weaknesses.
Does Penn have any good wins?
Uhhh ... its best wins were against St. Joe’s (the No. 116 team on KenPom) and two against Harvard. The Quakers played No. 1 seed Villanova on the road and lost by 28, and have four losses outside the top-150. They would definitely not have made the tournament as an at-large bid.
So what are you saying?
It’s extremely unlikely Penn, even as a No. 14 or 15 seed in disguise as a No. 16, will top a Kansas. The talent disparity is so great, and although this is a weaker Kansas team, it’s still a KANSAS basketball team.
What about the rest of the No. 16 seeds?
Texas Southern went 0-13 to start the season, UMBC has three losses outside the top-200, and Radford has five losses outside the top-200.
Pretty bad, folks. They are not beating Nova, Virginia, or Xavier.
Has a No. 16 seed ever even come close?
Yeah, actually! There have been two, one-point losses (Georgetown over Princeton in 1989, and Oklahoma over ETSU, also in 1989), Murray State took Michigan State to overtime in 1990, and Purdue beat Western Carolina by just two points in 1996.
Since the 2000s, a few teams have led at the half, but none have come closer than six points.
Does anyone actually pick a 16-seed to win?
As time goes on in this 16-seed drought, more and more bracket selectors are choosing the mother of all upsets to happen, according to the NCAA. The public, whether just uneducated or blindly hopeful, REALLY wants this to happen.
Each No. 16 seed had support from at least 1.71 percent of last year’s brackets, and at most, 2.73 percent, to pull off the upset. In total, 4.79 percent of brackets had at least one 16-over-1 upset in 2017.
So should I?
Hell no. Have you not been paying attention? In 132 tries, this has never happened!
The penalty for guessing incorrectly completely outweighs the reward for guessing this unlikely upset. Guessing correctly earns you one point, and if you’re wrong, you’ll lose out on dozens of points depending on where that No. 1 seed goes.
Don’t pick a 16-seed unless bragging rights really matter to you.
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