On the final Friday of the 2017-18 regular season, I’m not going to dwell too much on the top of the bracket, which saw only limited changes since Tuesday. The biggest is the return of the Arizona Wildcats to the protected seed group, thanks to the returns of Sean Miller, defiant in his denial of wrongdoing in the FBI’s probe of college basketball, and Allonzo Trier, back from his PED suspension after an appeal, and a needed Thursday win over Stanford. That drops the Gonzaga Bulldogs down to seed line five.
Bracketology 2018: Bubble teams continue to trip over themselves
Louisville was one of many teams that simply couldn’t pick up a key win over the past three nights. Therefore, the Cardinals remain on the wrong side of this projection, alongside UCLA, Utah, and Nebraska.
The Wichita State Shockers also moved up, to line three from line four, even if they needed overtime at UCF to pick up their seventh consecutive win. Gregg Marshall’s team hosts the Cincinnati Bearcats on Sunday (12 p.m. ET, CBS) needing a win to claim a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title — in the Shockers’ first season in the conference. The Texas Tech Red Raiders, losers of four straight, make the corresponding move down to seed line four.
Note: Quality win data (the ratio in parentheses, see Jan. 26 post for more info) and RPI information are courtesy WarrenNolan.com and accurate as of the morning of March 2, 2018 and only reflect games against Division I opponents.
Protected Seeds
No. 1 Seeds | No. 2 Seeds | No. 3 Seeds | No. 4 Seeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Virginia* (9/12) | 5. Duke (4/11) | 9. Auburn* (7/11) | 13. Texas Tech (6/11) |
| 2. Villanova (8/15) | 6. Michigan State* (3/8) | 10. Tennessee (6/12) | 14. West Virginia (7/13) |
| 3. Xavier* (6/16) | 7. Purdue (6/10) | 11. Cincinnati* (5/13) | 15. Ohio State (3/9) |
| 4. Kansas* (11/19) | 8. North Carolina (10/13) | 12. Wichita State (5/15) | 16. Arizona* (3/10) |
| avg. # of losses = 4 | avg. # of losses = 5.5 | avg. # of losses = 5.5 | avg. # of losses = 7.5 |
| * = auto bid |
Today’s three line required serious juggling to get the four regions relatively balanced. Still, a difference of five points between the strongest region, the South, and the weakest, the West, pushes the committee’s preferred limit.
Protected Seeds by Region
1. SOUTH | 4. WEST | 2. EAST | 3. MIDWEST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Virginia* (#1 - Charlotte) | 1. Kansas* (#4 - Wichita) | 1. Villanova (#2 - Pittsburgh) | 1. Xavier (#3 - Detroit) |
| 4. West Virginia (#14 - Boise) | 4. Arizona* (#16 - San Diego) | 4. Ohio State (#15 - San Diego) | 4. Texas Tech (#13 - Boise) |
| 3. Tennessee (#10 - Dallas) | 3. Auburn* (#9 - Nashville) | 3. Wichita State (#12 - Dallas) | 3. Cincinnati (#11 - Wichita) |
| 2. Purdue* (#7 - Nashville) | 2. North Carolina (#8 - Pittsburgh) | 2. Duke (#5 - Charlotte) | 2. Michigan State* (#6 - Detroit) |
| Sum of top 4 seeds: 32 | Sum of top 4 seeds: 37 | Sum of top 4 seeds: 34 | Sum of top 4 seeds: 33 |
This weekend should have serious implications for the No. 1 seed race, as a pair of current two seeds, the North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils, meet in Durham (Saturday 8:15 p.m., ESPN), while the Michigan State Spartans probably need to win the Big Ten Tournament title (Sunday 4 p.m., CBS) to have any hope of jumping to the top. The current top four all play winnable games, though the Xavier Musketeers and Kansas Jayhawks both have to hit the road, with the Big 12 champs visiting an Oklahoma State team (Saturday 4 p.m., ESPN) that already defeated them in Lawrence.
Other games to watch
All times ET.
Wisconsin vs. (2) Michigan State (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday 12 p.m. (BTN)
(fringe) Penn State vs. (4) Ohio State, (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday 6:30 p.m. (BTN)
Rutgers vs. (2) Purdue (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday approx. 9 p.m. (BTN)
(4) West Virginia at (11) Texas, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN)
(1) Xavier at DePaul, Saturday 12 p.m. (Fox)
Big Ten Semifinals, Saturday 2 and approx. 4:30 p.m. (CBS)
South Carolina at (3) Auburn, Saturday 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
(6) TCU at (4) Texas Tech, Saturday 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
(bubble) Notre Dame at (1) Virginia, Saturday 4 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
Georgetown at (1) Villanova, Saturday 5 p.m. (Fox)
(fringe) Georgia at (3) Tennessee, Saturday 6 p.m. (SEC Network)
California at (4) Arizona, Saturday 6:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Locks (Teams 17-26) And Near Locks (Teams 27-28)
No. 5 seeds | No. 6 seeds | No. 7 seeds |
|---|---|---|
| 17. Gonzaga* (3/6) | 21. Florida (9/12) | 25. Rhode Island* (2/5) |
| 18. Clemson (4/11) | 22. Texas A&M (5/12) | 26. Nevada* (2/7) |
| 19. Kentucky (3/11) | 23. TCU (4/9) | 27. Virginia Tech (6/9) |
| 20. Michigan (4/8) | 24. Miami (Fla.) (5/7) | 28. Houston (6/9) |
| avg. # of losses = 6.75 | avg. # of losses = 9.75 | avg. # of losses = 6.25 |
| * = auto bid |
One week ago, only 21 teams were able to claim lock status. Now, that number has grown to 26, mostly because time — and the opportunities for bad losses that come with its passage — is running out. Keep an eye on the four teams on seed line five, as they all have the potential to jump into the top 16 with strong conference tournament performances. The same cannot be said for the Rhode Island Rams, who somehow lost to the Saint Joseph’s Hawks Tuesday night ... by 30 ... at home. The Rams next face a dangerous Davidson squad in North Carolina this evening (8 p.m., CBSSN) with another loss likely to further damage their seed.
Other games to watch
(5) Michigan vs. (bubble) Nebraska (Big Ten Quarterfinal), Friday approx. 2:30 p.m. (BTN)
(5) Kentucky at (6) Florida, Saturday 12 p.m. (CBS)
(7) Virginia Tech at (6) Miami, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN2)
(11) Alabama at (6) Texas A&M, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN2)
(5) Clemson at (bubble) Syracuse, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
Loyola Marymount/Portland vs. (5) Gonzaga (WCC Quarterfinal), Saturday 10 p.m. (ESPN2)
(7) Nevada at San Diego State, Saturday 10 p.m. (CBSSN)
UConn at (7) Houston, Sunday 4 p.m. (CBSSN)
With 27 of the 28 teams above and the 23 champions of likely one-bid conferences (a total that includes the Nevada Wolf Pack) accounted for, just 18 places in the NCAA Tournament remain in play with a little more than a week to go before Selection Sunday.
Bubble In
No. 8 seeds | No. 9 seeds | No. 10 seeds |
|---|---|---|
| 29. Missouri (6/10) | 33. Florida State (6/7) | 37. USC (4/8) |
| 30. Arkansas (5/9) | 34. Butler (3/7) | 38. Middle Tennessee* (3/5) |
| 31. Seton Hall (4/7) | 35. Oklahoma (6/9) | 39. Kansas State (3/8) |
| 32. Creighton (2/7) | 36. Arizona State (3/8) | avg. # of losses = 8 |
| avg. # of losses = 9.75 | avg. # of losses = 10.5 | * = auto bid |
If you look at the TV lineup below, you’ll notice that the majority of teams in the group above will have the opportunity to distinguish themselves from their peers over the next couple of days. And that could have benefits for the winners, both in terms of conference and NCAA Tournament seeding.
In a week where plenty of bubble teams took losses, the Conference USA champion Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders completed a season sweep of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Thursday night. And that 82-64 victory in Murfreesboro just might have put Kermit Davis’ squad in position to claim a bid even if things go haywire in Frisco, Texas next week.
Games to watch
Iowa State at (9) Oklahoma, Friday 9 p.m. (ESPN2)
(11) Baylor at (10) Kansas State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN)
(fringe) Boston College at (9) Florida State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ACC Network/ESPN3)
(8) Creighton at (11) Marquette, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Fox)
Stanford at (9) Arizona State, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
(bubble) Louisville at (11) N.C. State, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN)
(8) Arkansas at (8) Missouri, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Marshall at (10) Middle Tennessee, Saturday 7 p.m. (Stadium)
(9) Butler at (8) Seton Hall, Saturday 8 p.m. (CBSSN)
UCLA at (10) USC, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Cut Line
Last Four Byes | Last Four In | First Four Out | Next Four Out |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40. Providence (4/8) | 44. Saint Mary's (1/3) | 69. Louisville (3/4) | 73. Washington (4/6) |
| 41. N.C. State (5/7) | 45. Baylor (4/7) | 70. UCLA (2/5) | 74. Syracuse (2/6) |
| 42. St. Bonaventure (3/7) | 46. Texas (5/7) | 71. Utah (2/6) | 75. Notre Dame (2/6) |
| 43. Alabama (5/10) | 47. Marquette (4/7) | 72. Nebraska (1/3) | 76. WKU (2/4) |
| avg. # of losses = 10.25 | avg. # of losses = 10.25 | avg. # of losses = 10 | avg. # of losses = 10.5 |
Of the 16 teams immediately surrounding the cut line, six took losses over the last three nights, while a further six were idle. On the good side of the line, the NC State Wolfpack picked up their third Group 3 loss of the season on Thursday night, falling at Georgia Tech. Meanwhile, the Alabama Crimson Tide lost for the fourth consecutive time — with a difficult trip to Texas A&M on deck for Saturday.
However, the week’s biggest loser was the Wolfpack’s Saturday opponent, the Louisville Cardinals. David Padgett’s squad would have entered today’s projected field with a win over the Virginia Cavaliers last night. But the visitors of Charlottesville broke Cardinals hearts in just about the cruelest way possible.
As a result, the idle Marquette Golden Eagles rejoin the field ... for now. Here’s a closer look at the Golden Eagles and the rest of the teams immediately surrounding the cut line.
Last four in
Avoiding Dayton: 40. Providence, 41. N.C. State, 42. St. Bonaventure, 43. Alabama
(27-4, 16-2 WCC); RPI: 36; KenPom: 23; “Super Average”: 35.2; SOS: 163
The Gaels, thought safe by many, might just want to go ahead and win three games in Las Vegas and claim the WCC tournament championship and the auto bid that goes with it. If Saint Mary’s fails to do so, it might be a nervous wait, as the Gaels own just a single Group 1 victory and 3-2 mark against Groups 1 and 2. That’s not optimal when dealing with a selection committee that has made the importance of quality wins clear.
Next game: vs. Santa Clara/Pepperdine (WCC Quarterfinal), Sunday approx. 12:30 a.m. (ESPN2)
45. Baylor Bears
(17-12, 8-9 Big 12); RPI: 55; KenPom: 29; “Super Average”: 40; SOS: 19
The Bears earned themselves a bit of breathing room by pummeling Oklahoma Tuesday night. However, a win at Kansas State, who won the pair’s earlier meeting in Waco, might just push Scott Drew’s team out of the First Four places come Sunday morning’s update. Baylor could really use a second road Group 1 win to go along with a Feb. 12 victory at Texas.
Next game: at Kansas State, Saturday 2 p.m. (ESPN)
46. Texas Longhorns
(17-13, 7-10 Big 12); RPI: 59; KenPom: 43; “Super Average”: 43; SOS: 20
A Longhorns’ win at Kansas on Monday night wasn’t expected. Honestly, a home victory over West Virginia on Saturday shouldn’t be anticipated either, but Texas needs one badly to hang on, even with five Group 1 wins on its profile. Shaka Smart’s squad can’t keep on counting on other bubble teams to bail it out with ill-timed losses. Plus, I’m not sure picking up only seven Big 12 wins is going to do it this season, even with the strength of the conference.
Next game: West Virginia, Saturday 12 p.m. (ESPN)
47. Marquette Golden Eagles
(17-12, 8-9 Big East); RPI: 64; KenPom: 49; “Super Average”: 49; SOS: 28
With a win over Creighton on Saturday, the Golden Eagles will have swept two teams ahead of them in the pecking order. (Seton Hall is the other.) However, Marquette will need help to avoid an opening round game in the Big East Tournament. And the potential of a second loss to either St. John’s or DePaul isn’t something Golden Eagles fans want to consider at this point.
Next game: Creighton, Saturday 2:30 p.m. (Fox)
First four out
69. Louisville Cardinals
(19-11, 9-8 ACC); RPI: 41; KenPom: 34; “Super Average”: 34; SOS: 22
Had the Cardinals defeated Virginia last night, they’d have four Group 1 wins, matching Baylor and Marquette above, with that single victory over the Cavaliers being more valuable than anything the Bears or Golden Eagles have to offer. But they didn’t, so now Louisville likely needs to win in Raleigh on Saturday and do some damage in the ACC tournament next week to find itself on the right side of the bubble.
Next game: at NC State, Saturday 6 p.m. (ESPN)
70. UCLA Bruins
(19-10, 10-7 Pac-12); RPI: 56; KenPom: 53; “Super Average”: 54; SOS: 58
The Bruins, swept by Utah and Colorado a week ago, hit the floor again on Saturday night aiming to do the same to USC — a result that would end the Trojans’ hopes of claiming a share of the Pac-12 title. More importantly for UCLA, however, is the fact a win at the Galen Center would be a vital third Group 1 win. Still, Steve Alford’s squad might need a run to the Pac-12 tournament final to have a real shot. And a Saturday victory will help the Bruins in their quest to secure a bye to the quarterfinals.
Next game: at USC, Saturday 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
71. Utah Utes
(18-10, 10-7 Pac-12); RPI: 57; KenPom: 62; “Super Average”: 61; SOS: 60
Unfortunately for the Utes, currently 2-6 against Group 1, Saturday’s home finale against a Colorado team that’s 75th in the RPI won’t help them improve that mark. That means Utah, which like UCLA needs to win to ensure it has a shot at a Pac-12 tourney bye, is likely to remain in this group on Sunday. A fascinating week in Vegas awaits.
Next game: Colorado, Saturday 7 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
(22-9, 13-5 Big Ten); RPI: 54; KenPom: 50; “Super Average”: 51; SOS: 97
My Tuesday Q&A over at Corn Nation goes through the Huskers’ case in more detail. In summary, Nebraska has a clear path to the field of 68, starting today against Michigan. Win that game and a potential semifinal against Michigan State on Saturday and things will look quite a bit rosier in Lincoln.
Next game: vs. Michigan (Big Ten Quarterfinals), Friday approx. 2:30 p.m. (BTN)
Next Four Out: 73. Washington, 74. Syracuse, 75. Notre Dame, 76. Western Kentucky
Also Considered
Teams 77-80 | Teams 81-84 | Teams 85-86 |
|---|---|---|
| 77. Miss. State (3/6) | 81. LSU (6/8) | 85. Oklahoma State (4/8) |
| 78. Boise State (1/5) | 82. Georgia (4/8) | 86. Boston College (2/4) |
| 79. Oregon (2/7) | 83. Colorado (2/6) | 87. UCF (1/4) |
| 80. Temple (3/9) | 84. Penn State (2/4) | avg. # of losses = 12.67 |
| avg. # of losses = 10 | avg. # of losses = 12.75 |
At this time last week, I asked if any bubble team really wanted to play in this year’s NCAAs. For the teams in the table above, now labeled “fringe” squads, the answer was almost a unanimous “No.” While Colorado was idle, Oklahoma State and Boston College both picked up wins that kept them on life support, and Penn State took out Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament last night, every other team in the table above, seven of the 11 listed, lost.
Other games to watch
St. John’s at (10) Providence, Saturday 12 p.m. (FSN)
(fringe) Mississippi State at (fringe) LSU, Saturday 1 p.m. (SEC Network)
(fringe) Oregon at (bubble) Washington, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Networks)
Wyoming at (fringe) Boise State, Saturday 7 p.m. (AT&T Sportsnet Rocky Mtn./MWN)
(bubble) Western Kentucky at UAB, Saturday 8 p.m. (Fox College Sports)
(fringe) Temple at Tulsa, Sunday 3 p.m. (ESPN3)
Tulane at (fringe) UCF, Sunday 4:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Likely Auto Bid Only
No. 12 seeds | No. 13 seeds | No. 14 seeds | No. 15 seeds | No. 16 seeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48. Loyola (Ill.)* (1/4) | 51. Louisiana* | 55. UNCG* | 59. UC Davis* | 63. Wagner* |
| 49. New Mexico State* (1/3) | 52. South Dakota St.* | 56. Rider* | 60. Montana* | 64. UNC Asheville* |
| 50. Buffalo* (0/2) | 53. Vermont* | 57. Murray State* | 61. NKU* | 65. FGCU* |
| avg. # of losses = 6 | 54. Charleston* | 58. Bucknell* | 62. Penn* | 66. Nicholls State* |
| * = auto bid | avg. # of losses = 5.75 | avg. # of losses = 7.25 | avg. # of losses = 7.75 | 67. Hampton* |
| 68. Prairie View A&M* | ||||
| avg. # of losses = 17.25 |
With so many bubble teams falling over the past few nights, the likelihood that a select number of the teams above could earn an at-large if they lose in their respective conference tournaments over the next week-plus has jumped. So I’ve added Loyola of Chicago and New Mexico State back to the grouping that only included Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders one week ago. Unfortunately, teams like Buffalo, Louisiana, and Vermont are still “auto bid or bust,” due to their lack of even a single Group 1 victory. While the Ramblers can avoid an anxious wait by taking the Arch Madness title on Sunday afternoon, the rest of the teams mentioned in this paragraph take the floor for tournament play next week.
Games to watch
Loyola of Chicago in the MVC Tournament: Quarterfinal, Friday 1 p.m. (ESPN3); Semifinal, Saturday 3:30 p.m. (CBSSN); Championship, Sunday 2 p.m. (CBS)
My next bracket update will come Sunday and we’ll go daily for the final week before the real thing arrives on March 11.
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