Kansas State basketball proves you can win in March with 3-star recruits (and some luck)

The 2018 NCAA tournament makes no sense, and Kansas State’s Elite Eight appearance fits right in.

The Wildcats boast zero first-round NBA Draft picks, play zero four- or five-star recruits, had six double-digit losses before the tourney, and were picked to finish eighth in their own conference. Yet, here they are, playing in the quarterfinals of the biggest stage in college hoops.

Kansas State played in probably the toughest conference men’s college basketball had to offer: the Big 12. They were an upper-middle tier team, finishing fourth in the 10-team conference at 10-8, but weren’t considered a real postseason threat. They beat a handful of top-50 teams like Texas, Baylor, and TCU, but couldn’t handle the best of the best. West Virginia beat them twice — once by 38 points! — Texas Tech beat them by 19 points, and Kansas beat them twice.

The Wildcats made their name known, but clearly asserted themselves as a good, not great team. A No. 9 seed was appropriate, and a second-round exit to Virginia would’ve made a fine season.

That’s not what happened. Here’s why.

Before play began, Virginia fans were up in arms over the competitiveness of the South Region. The No. 1 team in the nation would have to see some of the toughest high seeds of the tourney: Arizona or Kentucky and Cincinnati.

Problem was they overlooked No. 16 UMBC, which upset them in historic fashion. And Arizona fell to No. 13 Buffalo. Then Cincinnati lost to No. 7 Nevada in the Round of 32, and Tennessee lost to No. 11 Loyola-Chicago. The good teams were all out, and K-State’s schedule got a whole lot simpler.

Kansas State cruised past a Creighton team that was favored to win, and then beat the worst team in the entire region that Virginia couldn’t. In some form of miracle, the Wildcats avoided playing the favorite to win it all, UVA, and matched up favorably against a poorly constructed Kentucky team that’s known to struggle for periods of time on offense.

The Wildcats couldn’t have asked for a better draw to Elite Eight, and they’re also peaking at the right time.

The Wildcats may be filled with no-names, but they form a deadly defensive unit that gambles on every turn and succeeds more often than not. They have the third-best steal rate in the country, according to KenPom, and force the 24th-highest turnover percentage.

They’re small, playing a 6’9 or 6’10 center next to a 6’5 power forward, and push the pace. That’s how they were able to overcome a much more talented Kentucky team’s length.

Eleven of Kentucky’s 15 turnovers came in the form of steals. Kansas State may not have much scoring talent, but when 12 percent of defensive possessions end with the opposition trying to defend in transition, the lanes become easier to drive down.

K-State’s best scorer and rebounder, three-star recruit Dean Wade, sat the entire second half to injury and it didn’t even matter. Their backcourt forced Kentucky point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to cough up the ball five times, and 24 of their 61 points came off turnovers.

Head coach Bruce Weber knows how to compensate for his lack of size.

A depth chart of undervalued three-star commits is coming together, somehow. Xavier Sneed, the No. 141-ranked prospect in his draft class, scored 22 points on Kentucky. Barry Brown Jr., the No. 250 prospect in his draft class, scored 18 points against each UMBC and Creighton.

K-State’s system is succeeding, and hounding defense, a little bit of luck and a sound group of underdogs are busting brackets everywhere.

And now they’ll draw one of the lowest seeds to ever reach the Elite Eight, Loyola-Chicago, next. Their ride isn’t over yet.