Final Four teams, ranked for national championship chances

The Final Four is locked in: Villanova, Kansas, Michigan, and Loyola-Chicago are going to San Antonio.

As my colleague Mike Rutherford put it, this Final Four is giving us the best of both worlds. Kansas is a certified blueblood facing off against a Villanova team that’s looking to win its second title in three years. Loyola is the Cinderella story. Michigan feels like the best coached team in the tournament. There are great storylines all over this Final Four.

This has been a historic NCAA tournament up to this point (we’ll never forget you, UMBC). How does the final group stack up? Something like this.

What’s not to love about Loyola? The Ramblers have given us three crunch-time game-winners, turned a 98-year-old nun into a celebrity, and burst into the Final Four as an No. 11 seed — making them tied for the lowest seeded team to ever advance this far.

This is a true Cinderella in every sense, a Missouri Valley team with one player taller than 6’7 who has gotten hot at the right time thanks to a cast of versatile shooters and tough defenders. It hasn’t lost since January thanks to a system that zips the ball around the perimeter on offense and pressures it on defense. It won two grind-it-out games to start this tournament and won playing in a run-and-gun style in their last two wins.

Loyola has already had to go through an ACC team (Miami), SEC team (Kansas State), Mountain West team (Nevada), and Big 12 team (Kansas State) to get here, so they won’t be intimidated by the Big Ten’s Michigan Wolverines. Loyola might be No. 4 in our rankings, but they’re legitimately dangerous.

The whole world was waiting on a Duke vs. Villanova matchup in the Final Four, but the Jayhawks ruined those plans by busting the Blue Devils’ zone with quick passing and hot shooting to come away with an overtime win.

It feels like Kansas has been slept on all March, and that’s a mistake. This team has a star point guard in Devonte Graham, loads of perimeter shooting and a monster in the middle in Udoka Azubuike. They just waxed an ultra-talented Duke team in rebounds, assists, and outside shooting. When that happens, it’s time to pay attention.

Kansas’ offense is cooking right now, up to top-five in the country. The shooters are hot (especially Malik Newman) and the guards do a good job of limiting turnovers. When Azubuike gets one-on-one coverage, it’s two points.

Kansas vs. ‘Nova is going to be the best kind of shootout.

John Beilein has long been one of college basketball’s brightest offensive minds. What makes this Michigan team different is it’s also the best defensive team the coach has ever had.

Michigan ranks No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency, a unit led by the hounding ball pressure of point guard Zavier Simpson and the length and quickness of wings Charles Matthews and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. Michigan hasn’t allowed an opponent to score over 1.0 points per possession throughout their four-game run through the West Region.

Junior center Moritz Wagner is Michigan’s best weapon offensively, a 6’10 German-born stretch big who can score from all three levels. Loyola doesn’t have anyone on the roster who can match his size and agility, which is why we give the Wolverines a slight advantage.

The Wildcats have been posting historically good offensive efficiency numbers all season, and they just backed them up in their last two tournament wins against a pair of the best defensive teams in the nation. Villanova beat West Virginia’s full-court pressure and Texas Tech’s aggressive turnover scheme to head into the Final Four as the clear favorite.

Villanova has shooters at all five spots on the floor. Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges have graduated from role players on 2016’s national title winner to legitimate stars. There’s versatile interior players with Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall and scoring guards in Donte DiVincenzo and Phil Booth.

Villanova vs. Kansas will be an amazing game, built up by many as the de facto national title. For now, we’ll give Nova the edge for being the team with fewer holes.