Bracketology 2019: Is this season’s bubble really that awful?

If you spend any amount of time on college basketball Twitter during the months of February and March, you will inevitably encounter someone doing their best Comic Book Guy impersonation when discussing the at-large pool.

I know, I know, the bubble picture seems particularly mediocre this year, thanks to the Pac-12 being nearly absent from it, the non-Marquette/Villanova membership of the Big East seemingly conspiring to all go 9-9 in conference play, the Big Ten’s bottom displaying a pulse more regularly, and some unexpected mediocrity in the SEC. Horror of horrors, we even have teams from such power conferences at the Atlantic Sun and SoCon threatening to secure second bids! Whatever will we do?!

For starters, we’ll calm down a bit. Next, we’ll realize that this will be the ninth season of a 68-team NCAA field with a First Four. Yes, it was all the way back in 2011 when VCU made its famous run from Dayton to the Final Four in Houston. And with the field still requiring three additional teams from the 65-team bracket that was in place from 2001-2010, inviting some teams with NIT-type profiles is a necessity each year.

Our collective memory also seems to be a bit short on this topic. Based on the number of at-large teams selected with double-digit losses — admittedly not the most complex metric I could have selected — we live in a particularly dour time in NCAA Tournament history. Just last season, 21 double-digit-loss teams earned at-larges. That’s only one fewer than 2016’s all-time record of 22. The third-place total, 20, came all the way back in ... 2015. In fact, looking at the last four seasons, only 2017’s total of 14 double-digit-loss at-large selections falls outside of this pattern.

And after examining the number of 2019 at-large contenders that have seven or more losses with a month to go, look for this season’s field to also feature 20 or so teams heading into the tourney with 10 or more defeats.

An awful bubble is just a fact of life now. Eat at Arby’s.

Changing the subject for a moment, I’m ready to hand out some locks at the top of the bracket. To be considered a ‘lock,’ a team has to be in strong enough position to earn a bid, even if they lose each and every one of their remaining games. As a result, these don’t necessarily match up with the seed list and I’ll call out exceptions as they appear.

As a reminder, you’ll see three sets of numbers in parentheses after each at-large candidate’ name. The first is its overall record in games against Division I opposition only. The second is its total of Group 1 and 2 “quality” wins, with the third indicating the number of Group 1 wins, since the Selection Committee has indicated that it values these the most.

Note: While team records reflect games played through Thursday, Feb. 14, 2019, the Group 1 and 2 win information reflects the NET data published before the games played on that date. (Info from WarrenNolan.com.) Asterisks (*) denote auto bid holders.

No. 1s: 1. Duke* (22-2/13/7), 2. Tennessee* (22-1/11/4), 3. Virginia (21-2/12/7), 4. Gonzaga* (24-2/9/4)
No. 2s: 5. Kentucky (20-4/10/7), 6. Michigan* (22-3/14/6), 7. Michigan State (20-5/13/10), 8. Kansas (19-6/14/9)
No. 3s: 9. North Carolina (19-5/10/5), 10. Marquette (21-4/12/7), 11. Purdue (17-7/11/6), 12. Houston* (24-1/13/4)
No. 4s: 13. LSU (20-4/12/6), 14. Nevada* (23-1/8/0), 15. Kansas State* (19-5/10/6), 16. Wisconsin (17-6/11/7)

Non-lock from this group: Purdue, since the Boilermakers still have seven regular-season games and at least one Big Ten Tournament game left. While they’ve likely done enough up to this point, an unlikely eight-game skid would make them 17-15 and that could be too close for comfort.

This grouping sees several changes from Tuesday’s bracket, which followed the Committee’s sneak preview guidance. For starters, Kansas and North Carolina flipped places on lines two and three. Plus, LSU jumped up to line four after picking up a marquee, though controversial win at Kentucky, while Big 12-leading Kansas State replaces Iowa State.

East: 1/1. Duke* (Columbia 1), 2/7. Michigan State (Des Moines 1), 3/12. Houston* (Salt Lake City 2), 4/13. LSU (Hartford 1) - Total of top four seeds = 33

South: 1/2. Tennessee* (Columbia 2), 2/6. Michigan* (Des Moines 1), 3/9. North Carolina (Jacksonville 1), 4/15. Kansas State* (Hartford 2) - Total of top four seeds = 32

Midwest: 1/3. Virginia (Columbus 1), 2/5. Kentucky (Columbus 2), 3/10. Marquette (Tulsa 2), 4/16. Wisconsin (San José 2) - Total of top four seeds = 34

West: 1/4. Gonzaga* (Salt Lake City 1), 2/8. Kansas (Tulsa 1), 3/11. Purdue (Jacksonville 2), 4/14. Nevada* (San José 1) - Total of top four seeds = 37

This particular arrangement features a pair of Sweet Sixteen rematches from the season’s early stages, Michigan-North Carolina in the South and Virginia-Wisconsin in the Midwest. Even more intriguing to me is the possibility of the West’s two best teams, Gonzaga and Nevada, meeting in that round in Anaheim.

No. 5s: 17. Villanova* (20-5/12/4), 18. Florida State (19-5/8/4), 19. Louisville (17-8/8/4), 20. Iowa State (18-6/7/4)
No. 6s: 21. Maryland (19-6/11/5), 22. Texas Tech (20-5/11/4), 23. Iowa (19-5/10/5), 24. Virginia Tech (18-4/7/3)

Non-locks from this group: Were disaster to strike, Louisville could still record 15 losses, while Iowa State could end with 14. As for Virginia Tech, Justin Robinson’s status will likely only affect the Hokies’ seeding at this point. They can max out at 11 losses, which should be good enough given what’s below.

With 36 at-large teams and eight typical multi-bid champions, there are 44 bids in play this season. While I’ve already run down 24 teams, just 22 count toward this total, as Gonzaga and Nevada are in as the representatives of likely single-bid conferences. While Purdue, Louisville and Iowa State aren’t quite locks yet, all three are close enough for the purposes of this exercise. That means there are 22 spots up for grabs with a month to go. From line No 7 on down though, locks are few and far between.

No. 7s: 25. Mississippi State (17-7/10/6), 26. Baylor (16-8/10/3), 27. Cincinnati (20-4/6/3), 28. Washington* (19-5/6/1)
No. 8s: 29. Buffalo (20-3/5/1), 30. Ole Miss (17-7/7/4), 31. Wofford* (19-4/5/2), 32. TCU (17-7/6/1)

While Buffalo, Cincinnati, Washington and Wofford should be locks based on their loss totals, the quality of their respective conferences means they’re more prone to picking up defeats that could make their positions less stable.

Mississippi State (victorious over Alabama in Starkville) and Ole Miss (by sweeping their season series with Auburn) were the week’s biggest winners from this group. As for TCU, they’re only here because a whole bunch of teams behind them picked up losses worse than the Horned Frogs’ Monday OT defeat to Kansas.

No. 9s: 33. Syracuse (17-8/6/2), 34. Ohio State (16-8/7/4), 35. Auburn (15-8/6/1), 36. St. John’s (18-7/8/4)
No. 10s: 37. Lipscomb (18-5/4/2), 38. Texas (14-11/8/4)

Yes, Lipscomb is in an at-large, as their Wednesday’s home loss to Liberty knocked them into a first place tie for the Atlantic Sun lead with the Flames. (Ritchie McKay’s team holds the auto bid for this projection based on owning a superior winning percentage in Division I games.) The Bisons still have a NET ranking of 38th, the 51st-ranked non-conference schedule and win at TCU. None of those factors guarantee selection for Casey Alexander’s club, but given the NET’s perceived influence on the Selection Committee, they have a shot.

Ohio State slipped a bit after Thursday’s home loss to Illinois, while respective midweek defeats to NC State and Ole Miss led to Syracuse and Auburn tumbling a bit. As for St. John’s, the Red Storm’s presence in the Big East’s mediocre middle class doesn’t help their case, but their surprise sweep of Marquette does. Then there’s Texas, whose quality wins continue to keep them afloat despite a rising, troubling loss total.

Last four byes (No. 10s): 39. Seton Hall (15-9/9/2), 40. Alabama (15-9/8/2)
Last four byes (No. 11s): 41. VCU (18-6/3/1), 42. NC State (18-7/7/1)

Seton Hall is tied with St. John’s for third in the Big East at 6-6, but the Pirates are showing signs of rising above the mire, thanks to consecutive home wins over Creighton and Georgetown — defeats that seriously damaged those squads own chances. Alabama really needs a quality road win for its case, but that ship might have already sailed considering their most difficult remaining away game comes against Arkansas to end the regular season. VCU’s position has grown more solid thanks to a five-game win streak and the struggles of their bubble peers. NC State, meanwhile, picked up a needed home win over Syracuse. The Wolfpack visit Duke on Saturday (6 p.m. ET, ESPN) — a stern test before their schedule becomes much more forgiving.

Last four IN (No. 11s - First Four): 43. Minnesota (16-9/7/3), 44. Oklahoma (15-10/8/3)

Auto bid (No. 11): 45. Belmont* (19-4/5/2)

Last four IN (No. 12s - First Four): 46. Arizona State (16-8/7/3), 47. UCF (18-5/5/0)

Minnesota has dropped four straight, with Wednesday’s defeat at Nebraska being particularly costly, since it gave life to the Cornhuskers’ fading hopes. The Golden Gophers will have to be careful to not repeat that trick when an Indiana team that’s also on life support visits Williams Arena on Saturday (2 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Oklahoma’s early successes are keeping them in the field after five consecutive defeats. It’s a similar story for Arizona State, which simply cannot string wins together in Pac-12 play. The Sun Devils followed up their Saturday victory over Washington by losing at Colorado. They’ll try to avoid a Rocky Mountain sweep at Utah on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET, FS1). Then there’s our new entrant, UCF, which still lacks a marquee win, but home victories over Alabama and Temple are a start. Note that the Knights still have four Group 1 win chances, though three of those will be road contests.

As for Belmont, the Bruins’ NET of 65 is probably too high for at-large consideration, given their conference affiliation, but their home-and-home sweep of Lipscomb won’t hurt.

First Four OUT: 69. Clemson (15-9/4/1), 70. Temple (18-7/6/1), 71. Butler (14-11/7/1), 72. Florida (13-11/4/1)

Clemson’s stay in the projected field was short, thanks to a disappointing loss at Miami on Wednesday. But the Tigers will have two shots at Group 1 wins in the coming days, starting on Saturday in Louisville (12 p.m. ET, ESPN). Butler gave its Tuesday game at St. John’s to the Red Storm and lost its place in the bracket in the process. With a loss at South Florida on Saturday (6 p.m. ET, ESPNU), Temple could see its position weaken further. Florida will head for Alabama (Sat., 2 p.m. ET, ESPNU) with a needed Group 1 win in its sights.

Next Four OUT: 73. Utah State (18-6/3/1), 74. Nebraska (13-11/7/2), 75. Oregon (15-9/3/1), 76. Georgetown (15-10/7/3)

Don’t expect Utah State to rise much higher than this over the next two weeks. The Aggies are merely trying to stay out of danger until they host Nevada on March 2nd. While Nebraska recovered some hope by defeating Minnesota, losses against Northwestern on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, BTN) or at Penn State on Tuesday will lead it to evaporate. Oregon cannot afford to get swept by Oregon State tomorrow night (10:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network), while Georgetown has a few days to practice before Villanova visits Wednesday. That’s a win the Hoyas desperately need after dropping consecutive contests to Butler and Seton Hall.

77. Indiana (13-11/6/4), 78. Furman (18-5/4/1), 79. Arkansas (14-10/3/1), 80. UNC Greensboro (20-4/2/1), 81. Providence (14-11/6/2), 82. Memphis (15-10/2/0), 83. Saint Mary’s (16-10/2/1), 84. South Florida (17-7/2/0), 85. Fresno State (17-6/2/1), 86. San Francisco (18-6/1/0), 87. Murray State (18-4/1/0), 88. Toledo (19-4/2/0)

With a five-game stretch against NCAA contenders starting on Saturday in Minneapolis, the Hoosiers are the team in this group in the best position to control its own fate. Arkansas, which hosts Mississippi State on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network), and Providence, tasked with a winnable home game against Xavier hours earlier (2 p.m. ET, Fox), aren’t far behind. South Florida will get another shot at a quality win, though not a Group 1 one, when Temple visits, while Memphis can sweep UCF in Orlando tomorrow (6 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

As for the rest of this dozen, it’s likely auto bid or bust, though Furman could get itself in the conversation with a win over 28th-ranked Wofford next Saturday. Such a result would give the Paladins two Group 1 victories, thanks to their November win at Villanova.

No. 12s: 48. Liberty* (19-5/2/1), 49. Davidson* (17-6/3/0), 50. New Mexico State* (20-4/2/0)
No. 13s: 51. Hofstra* (21-4/1/0), 52. Old Dominion* (20-6/2/1)

With a mere two Group 1 wins between them, these five squads are edging toward the “must-win auto bid” category. But if the bubble gets even shakier for power conference teams, these squads could all profit.

No. 13s: 53. Yale*, 54. Vermont*
No. 14s: 55. Bowling Green*, 56. Radford*, 57. South Dakota State*, 58. Texas State *
No. 15s: 59. UC Irvine*, 60. Loyola Chicago*, 61. Northern Kentucky*, 62. Montana*
No. 16s (First Round): 63. Sam Houston State*, 64. Bucknell*
No. 16s (First Four): 65. Prairie View A&M*, 66. Norfolk State*, 67. St. Francis (Pa.)*, 68. Monmouth*

With one month to go, just four teams have a perfect conference record within their grasp, thanks to Lipscomb’s Wednesday loss to Liberty. And with Tennessee, Washington and Wofford all appearing higher on the seed list, the Sam Houston State Bearkats are the only team in this group with such hopes. They travel to 13-12 Lamar on Saturday (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3).

Win or lose, Jason Hooten’s club, currently three games up in the Southland race, will still be in Tuesday’s full projection. But as you’ve read, the same can’t be said for many of the teams above them.