Illinois looks like No. 1 in men’s college basketball preseason rankings after retaining top players

The Illinois Fighting Illini reached the Final Four of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament for the first time since 2005. Illinois ended up losing a tight game to the UConn Huskies before Michigan cut down the nets in the national championship game. Most programs as successful as Illinois was this past season are scrambling right now to replace the loss of key players to the NBA Draft or the transfer portal. The Illini are the exception, and it’s setting them up for another big year next season.

Andrej Stojakovic announced he was returning to Illinois for his senior season on Friday afternoon. Stojakovic’s announcement follows commitments to return earlier this week from teammates David Mirkovic, Tomislav Ivisic, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Jake Davis. The Illini will lose Keaton Wagler to the 2026 NBA Draft, where he’s expected to be a top-7 pick, but they’re bringing back almost everyone else.

Wagler is a significant loss, but Illinois found what feels like a perfect replacement for him in Providence guard Stefan Vaaks in the transfer portal. Like Wagler, Vaaks is a tall (6’7), skinny guard who is at his best shooting threes off the dribble. Vaaks made 35 percent of his threes on 91-of-260 shooting from behind the arc last year as a freshman. More than 35 percent of those shots were unassisted.

Illinois found a winning formula this past season by launching threes at will and hitting the offensive glass hard. The Illini took 49.7 percent of their field goal attempts from three-point range, which ranked No. 15 in DI. They grabbed 39.2 percent of their misses, which ranked No. 3 overall in offensive rebound rate. The offense ended the year at No. 2 in efficiency by scoring an incredible 131.2 points per 100 possessions.

This type of roster retention for an elite team is incredibly rare in the transfer portal era. Last year’s average was 31 percent roster retention, according to Evan Miyakawa. The Illini are bringing back five players who played at least 42 percent of the available minutes last year. Most college teams need to build continuity early in the season. The Illini will already have it.

I don’t see a team that deserves to be ranked ahead of Illinois right now for the 2026-27 season. I’ll predict the Illini will rank No. 1 in the AP Poll preseason poll when it’s released closer to the season.

Losing Wagler to the NBA and Kylan Boswell to graduation is a big deal, but it shouldn’t matter. Illinois is keeping its ridiculously talented front court in place that features two 7’1 guys who can shoot it and protect the rim in the Ivisic twins, plus a 6’9 brawler in Mirkovic who cleans the glass, stretches the floor, and can even run a little bit of offense with the ball in his hands. Davis is a veteran wing who hits 40 percent of his threes and doesn’t turn the ball over. Stojakovic is a deadly slasher and stout perimeter defender with a big body for a wing.

Add in Vaaks’ pull-up shooting and the addition of incoming freshmen Quentin Coleman and Lucas Morillo, and this Illinois team should be really, really good.

Vaaks will need to take a playmaking leap. Coleman is a four-star recruit with a skinny frame and shooting ability, and it will be interesting to see if Brad Underwood can develop him in a similar way to Wagler. Morillo is a 6’7 wing with a mean streak defensively who can also run some offense with the ball in his hands. The Illini are still in the mix for Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell, who we ranked as a top-5 portal player available, and if they get him that would be an embarrassment of riches.

Illinois will have competition for No. 1 in the polls. Florida is bringing back Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon as two players who would have been drafted in June if they turned pro. UConn is also crushing the portal by landing Najai Hines and retaining guard Silas Demary. Michigan is expected to lose Aday Mara and Morez Johnson to the NBA, but if they somehow brought both back, the Wolverines would have to be No. 1 in the polls. Louisville deserves consideration after bringing in Flory Bidunga and two other stud transfers.

Most of the traditional powerhouses have work to do. Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina have all had a quiet offseason. The balance of power might be shifting in men’s college basketball. At least going into next season, the Illini are as good as anyone.