National Signing Day Live Recap: Commitments, Surprises And Rankings

Jameis Winston, the top dual-threat quarterback recruit in the country, has signed with Florida State, according to a report by Tomahawk Nation. Winston had been committed to Florida State since early August, but did not sign on National Signing Day because of his participation in an all-star game held in Texas. Winston wanted to sign with his friends and family present, and elected to wait until he returned to his home state of Alabama to do so. Winston plays for Hueytown (Al.) High School.

In addition to his offer from Florida State, the 6’4”, 190 pound Winston held offers from Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Stanford. He gave consideration to Alabama and Stanford, but reaffirmed his decision to sign with Florida State Wednesday during an interview on ESPNU. After being committed for six months and reiterating his intention on national television, Winston signed with the ‘Noles Friday.

Most of us fall into two camps on the day after National Signing Day: either the “Our Recruiting Class Was Great/Terrible This Year, Therefore We Are Going To Be Great/Terrible This Fall” camp, or the “Whatever, Most Of These Kids Will Redshirt, And You Cannot Judge A Recruiting Class For Four Years Anyway” camp. I tend to lean toward the latter, but the reality is that both camps are half-right: most of the kids your team just signed probably will redshirt, but recent recruiting classes can still make a significant impact on your team this fall. It all depends on how we look at the recruiting rankings themselves.

For the last few years, we have incorporated recruiting rankings into our Football Outsiders Almanac projections. I have begun to realize over the last few months, however, that we may have been going about it all wrong. For the most part, we have used a weighted, five-year average of recruiting rankings, using the logic that most of your starters will have been recruited two, three, four or even five years ago, therefore their rankings are what matter the most. However, it appears that isn’t necessarily the case. In general, recruiting rankings are indeed predictive, but they have a shelf life. By the time a class is four years old, their performance has trumped their potential. Classes from a while ago, therefore, should be judged by on-field performance; older recruiting rankings are no longer valid.

Consider this Urban Meyer’s “Welcome to the Big Ten” moment.

That’s just not how things were done when Urban was in the SEC, where he won two National Titles. When pressed on the accusation, he called the criticism “nonsense” and didn’t see the harm in calling and asking a recruit about his pledge.

“He did not necessarily have the chest and the ability to lead a program,” Miles said about the “young man from Indiana.”

Kiel, you’ll recall, was once a LSU commit, and also once an Indiana commit. Meaning he spurned a team to come to LSU, which Miles was cool with. Kiel’s sternum is probably just fine either way, but that’s not really what anybody’s talking about. I don’t think. It would be pretty great if all Miles was talking about was really nothing more than actual, physical chest dimensions, though.

Stefon Diggs, perhaps the most electric receiver recruit in the country, chose not to sign on National Signing Day. Diggs felt that he had started the process late, and rather than rushing a decision, he wants to look around a little more. Diggs is expected to sign on February 10.

While Diggs is thought to be considering Florida, Auburn and Urban Meyer’s Ohio State Buckeyes, Maryland cannot be counted out here. As Broman points out, geography is a huge factor in recruiting. And since Diggs started the process late, he’ll be one of the only visitors this weekend. Maryland can give him a lot of one-on-one attention. Still, Maryland lost 10 games last year and should be considered an extreme long-shot to sign Diggs. He very well could just want to get a chance to see Carolina hoops.

It’s important to remember that National Signing Day and the week that leads up to it are only part of recruiting. Recruiting goes on in the other 51 weeks as well, and it’s entirely possible for a team to close poorly and still end up with a great class. Let’s use some baseball terminology. Everybody likes baseball.

Missouri signed Dorial Green-Beckham. That’s closing. They don’t need to do anything else to be on this list. Bill Connelly has more. That’s an excellent piece worth of your attention, as Connelly was there for DGB’s entire day.

Check out his Cerritos College highlight video, set to 2pac’s “All Eyez On Me” after the jump.

I almost feel sorry for the undersized WAC defensive lineman that Tupou will be pancaking on a week to week basis. Imagine yourself as that 210-pound linebacker or 180-pound defensive back when Tupou rumbles to the second level to pick up the block. It’s actually quite surprising how well Tupou gets past the line in his highlight video.

Our own Bill C. put together a spectacular piece on Dorial Green-Beckham’s Signing Day, while Thayer Evans went behind the scenes with the Beckhams, producing this priceless morsel:

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8:30 AM CT -- I arrive at the Springfield Hillcrest gymnasium. Students have not been released to attend yet, so most of the crowd consists of adults from the community and, primarily, press. Lots of press.

For all intents and purposes, Springfield, MO, is the biggest small town in the country. Wind-blown trees. Intense, nearly over-bearing religion. Obsession with fireworks. Walmarts on every block. A man selling flags out of his truck in a parking lot on Glendale Avenue (your options: America, Missouri, Dixie, or Dixie With A Marijuana Leaf and “SOUTHERNER” At The Bottom). From Springfield, you are within an hour and a half of Yakov Smirnoff’s act in Branson, the home of those Precious Moments figurines, Winter’s Bone and a sign that says “Eternal Life: Exit Here.”

The most surprising thing that could’ve possibly happened on National Signing Day would’ve probably been Florida State’s Mario Edwards declaring he thought he was going to get to play for a Bowden at Tallahassee, then following Terry Bowden to Akron. Either that or a hearty “ROLL TIDE!” coming from Landon Collins’ mother. In lieu of either of those happening, here’s a list of the 10 biggest surprises from Wednesday.

First, let’s talk about the biggest non-surprise. Honors there would have to go to Decatur, GA three-star receiver Keithon Redding. I’m still having a hard time figuring out which school he signed with:

While Feb. 1 contained much of the excitement over recruits since it was National Signing Day, not all of the top college football prospects made their announcements on Wednesday. Several top prospects are keeping prospective schools waiting with bated breath for these announcements.

Coming from a Chicago high school, offensive lineman Jordan Diamond is waiting to make his announcement on Feb. 3. Diamond is a 4- or 5-star recruit depending on the recruiting service being looked at. He is considering Arkansas, Auburn, Michigan and Wisconsin.

At this point, photographers know to just follow Auburn assistant and ace recruiter Trooper Taylor around wherever he goes on signing day. At some point, there will be a moment where Taylor loses it, and cameras better be there to catch it. This happens every year, and we understand it’s just the way things go.

First, a stroll down memory lane. This one is mild:

Malik Golden signed with Penn State on Wednesday and overall it was a pretty run-of-the-mill deal. It wasn’t a surprise, he didn’t flip at the last moment and there was nothing rather extravagant about it all. Yet it was Golden’s signing that produced one of the more hilarious signing day photos.

And Golden wasn’t the star of this show: his younger brother was.

National Signing Day 2012 is drawing to a close, and all of the signings, decommitments and flips caused some major shakeups in the recruiting rankings. But after all was said and done, the top of the recruiting rankings are populated by the usual suspects.

The following chart shows all four rankings services (247Sports, ESPN, Rivals and Scout), and a composite of the four. Fans of teams that didn’t finish well will claim that recruiting rankings don’t matter. History could not disagree more, however, as the rankings are incredibly predictive of success on the whole. Still, there are always exceptions, and one poor recruiting year does not doom a team to years of future failure.

Raymond Ford, a top cornerback recruit, committed to the Cal Bears. Ford stars for for Junipero Serra High School in Gardena, California and chose the Golden Bears over Nebraska and Colorado, the two remaining finalists of the three he declared last week.

Ford had been committed to UCLA throughout last season, but the firing of head coach Rick Neuheisel caused the defensive back to reopen his recruitment. According to ESPN, Ford eliminated the Bruins from contention this week, along with SMU, Washington State and Utah.

Rogers stands 6’2” and weighs a solid 200 pounds. That’s definitely good size for a receiver prospect. Rogers is athletic, can go up to get the football, and also has decent speed. He’s not a track star, but is able to create separation nonetheless.

Rogers’ commitment was a highly desired one for Arizona State, as Nikil Selvam explained, but that won’t be happening now.

Yes, we know Dorial Green-Beckham is from Missouri and ended up sticking close to home, choosing the Tigers on Wednesday. One could surmise he chose the school because of its location. One would be wrong.

↵It actually came down to baby-naming rights and an offer from offensive coordinator David Yost that Green-Beckham couldn’t refuse.

However, as new four-star Auburn linebacker prospect Cassanova McKinzy was dismayed to discover, Auburn is actually Clemson with a Chick-fil-A:

When asked why he didn’t enjoy his Clemson visit as much as he did his trip to Auburn, McKinzy immediately notes Clemson’s drastic waffle fry famine. By the way, guess which two schools play in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game next year?

That’s a Springfield, Missouri billboard raised in honor of Dorial Green-Beckham, a teenager who’s signed a piece of paper informing the University of Missouri of his intent to play college football there. No word on who it was that erected the sign, but whoever it was has done the most SEC thing anybody did all Signing Day, and for that ... welcome, Mizzou.

For more on the Tigers, visit Missouri blog Rock M Nation.

National Signing Day 2012 has been in full swing for nearly 12 hours now and many schools are coming up roses with extensive classes of commits.

Looking for National Signing Day coverage of other teams or recruits? Head to SB Nation College Football Recruiting. Also, check out more local coverage at our many fine college football blogs.

Kyle Murphy, a top offensive tackle recruit, has committed to Stanford over USC, announcing the news on television on National Signing Day 2012. Murphy, who played for San Clemente (Calif.) High School, chose Stanford over USC, the other main finalist other finalists for his services.

Murphy is a 6’6”, 280 pound offensive tackle with excellent feet. He is rated five stars by most recruiting services, and is a fantastic prospect.

Earlier Wednesday, Miles was wavering in his commitment to Washington. He skipped the National Signing Day ceremony at his school, and texted that he would pick between USC and Washington later in the day. Ultimately, he elected to stick with his commitment to Steve Sarkisian and the Washington Huskies.

Miles was very impressive during the U.S. Army All-American Bowl, throwing accurately and showing off his athleticism. At 6’4” and 215 pounds, he has great size for the position, as well.

When the NCAA announced teams would be able to bargain with recruits by offering multi-year scholarships instead of just one-year deals, the popular thinking was that it would offer an equalizer for smaller schools. While powers were unlikely to use them, a lesser program could compete for talent by laying out four-year scholarships.

Florida, like Georgia and Vanderbilt, has publicly come out against oversigning and oversigning-esque things, likely to the amusement of SEC East associate Steve Spurrier, a SEC Westly proponent of active roster management.