Despite Jim McElwain winning the SEC East twice, his bosses recognized he won a denuded division, his team consistently struggled to score points, and he gave Florida an opening with strange, unsubstantiated claims.
Georgia’s dominance over Florida and Tennessee shows the importance of having as many top QBs as possible
If finding a good QB is a lottery, then it’s best to buy a lot of tickets.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images
On the other side of the axis that dominated the SEC throughout the ‘90s, Butch Jones’ days at Tennessee are numbered. The Vols just went three full games without scoring an offensive touchdown.
Florida is a wretched 98th in offensive S&P, but Tennessee is worse at 119th. Both McElwain and Jones have backgrounds as offensive coaches, so they have no one to blame other than themselves. It would be one thing if they were defensive gurus who could produce elite defenses that could survive dreadful offensive production (their defenses don’t fit such a description, either).
When a coach is being fired for offensive shortcomings, it’s typical to start the autopsy by reviewing quarterback play.
Not surprisingly, both the Gators and Vols have been hurt by terrible passing. Quinten Dormady managed a meager 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt (yards per attempt, with a bonus for touchdowns and a penalty for interceptions) and has been replaced by Jarrett Guarantano, who has been at 5.5. Feleipe Franks has also been at 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt, which is better than Luke Del Rio’s 4.5. All four of these quarterbacks are outside of the top 10 in the SEC in this category, producing about half as much per throw as Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Missouri’s Drew Lock.
In defense of McElwain, Will Muschamp left him a slim depth chart at the most important position, a situation that got worse when Will Grier was suspended and then transferred to West Virginia. McElwain put his eggs in the Franks basket, a reasonable bet, given that Franks was a four-star recruit. However, the passing game has been the weakest part of the team.
Jones inherited an even worse situation from Derek Dooley. He hit a home run with Joshua Dobbs, another four-star QB. If not for some close losses, a rash of injuries, and one inexplicable offensive coordinator hire, Jones might have had the excellent 2016 that would have bought job security.
Heading into 2017, Jones was relying on Guarantano in the same way McElwain was relying on Franks. Like Franks, Guarantano was a blue-chip recruit, 2016’s No. 1 dual-threat. Like Franks, Guarantano has struggled and was on the bench before an injury to a less-talented, more-experienced QB paved the way. And like Franks, Guarantano’s substandard production is a major reason why there will be a coaching change.
We know that, on average, blue-chip recruits outperform lesser-rated players.
There are endless ways to show that recruiting rankings are predictive at a high level, despite annual exceptions. One of the more common exceptions is at quarterback, where top QB signees commonly transfer after a year or two.
So in one sense, both McElwain and Jones are unlucky.
They recruited quarterbacks who have all the physical tools, but struggled anyway. It’s possible to scout arm strength, accuracy, and foot speed on a high school quarterback; it’s almost impossible to determine whether that prospect will be able to make quick, correct decisions if he’s without elite talent in the rest of his offense or a strong offensive coordinator. High school quarterbacks can be a crap shoot, even at the top of the recruiting rankings.
One need look only at the team that is running away with the SEC East to see more evidence. Georgia is a much better team than Florida or Tennessee. Its defense is superior, as is its running game.
However, UGA’s also getting much better quarterback play.
Is Fromm playing better simply because of expert scouting by Kirby Smart and his staff? Everyone wanted Fromm, who was from two hours south of Athens.
Is Georgia’s system so much better that it gives Fromm easier throws to make? There’s some merit, as the Dawgs’ exceptional running game reduces pressure on their QB.
However, we’re one year removed from UGA’s Jacob Eason averaging 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt — not far off of where Franks and Guarantano are now — under the same coaches and with much the same surrounding personnel. Eason was the starter until he injured his knee in 2017’s opener.
Smart landed a quarterback who was ready to play at a high level as a freshman, then that quarterback got into the starting lineup because of an injury the week before Georgia’s toughest game of the regular season.
Smart had insurance against Eason getting injured or struggling to progress. McElwain and Jones didn’t give themselves enough fallbacks (or support their QBs with the right talent and coaching, but that’s another issue).
When Smart arrived at Georgia, the Dawgs had a verbal from Eason, the No. 2 quarterback in the 247sports Composite. Smart held onto that verbal during the transition, but he did not put all of his eggs in the Eason basket. Smart leveraged his relationship with Fromm to swing the No. 3 pro-style quarterback from Alabama.
He’s now managed to land a commitment from the No. 1 2018 recruit, in-state QB Justin Fields, setting up his QB room with excellent options, even if one transfers soon. If Eason and Fromm had struggled, Smart would still be in decent shape.
(Florida does have a commitment from five-star California QB Matt Corral, though keeping him would require quickly hiring a coach with a strong plan on offense, at very least.)
A top program needs to bring in an elite quarterback prospect every year, if at all possible.
Fans sometimes think that once their team has a blue-chip recruit in the fold, then they are set for the next three years.
That is a significant mistake because of the inherent uncertainty at the position. The SEC East is an object lesson.
