26 percent of 2018’s top recruits remained unsigned after the first-ever Early Signing Period

The recruiting cycle has a very different rhythm to it this year. In case you missed it, there was a whole new Early Signing Period right before Christmas in which players could get their NLIs out of the way. While change creates an adjustment period, college football coaches pretty much regarded it like the regular February Signing Day.

If verbally committed by the Early Signing Period, then you probably signed.

If a player has been offered and has verbally committed to the university, that team expects him to sign. Coaches have put in months, if not years, of work toward their current verbal commitments. They do not want to spend another second ensuring those players sign. In fact, that has long been one of their biggest annoyances with the recruiting process.

There are 369 players regarded as blue-chip prospects (four- and five-stars) in the 247Sports Composite, and 279 of them signed on the dotted line. That’s three-quarters of the elite recruits who are now off the board.

Of the 97 unsigned blue chips, 73 of them are also uncommitted; five of those are five-star players. Of the nation’s top 101 recruits, 33 of them remain unsigned heading into February Signing Day.

On the team side, of the top 25 recruiting classes in the 247Sports Composite, Oregon and Mississippi State are outliers with six committed, but unsigned players. That may have a bit to do with the fact that Oregon has a partially new coaching staff and Mississippi State has a completely new staff. It makes sense that a player would hold off on signing given the fact that he might not have had a face-to-face with his position coach yet.

The much more common number is three or fewer unsigned, but verbally committed players in a school’s recruiting class. Verballed players still contribute to a team’s 247 team ranking.

Early Signing Day was always going to help these schools out in a few ways. Virginia Tech and Minnesota both finished the ESP in the top 30, for example, and it’s in part because the period offers non-traditional recruiting powers a sort of protection.

Virginia Tech and Minnesota also got solid classes and took advantage of the nature of the Early Signing Period. In recent years, the Virginia Techs and Minnesota’s of the world might not have been able to hold onto kids in the recruiting cycle’s stretch run. Bigger schools now don’t have the opportunity to flip them in January because the players are signed. The Hokies finished Wednesday at No. 17 and the Gophers finished at No. 29.

There are fewer players to go after because most have already signed, so we’ll have a better understanding of which players schools are actually targeting. The ambiguity lies in how schools will sprint to the finish. Let’s unpack Texas coach Tom Herman’s main concern.

If Herman’s logic comes true, then schools may have to get stingy with offers for players who are unsigned coming down the stretch. On one hand, it may save players who aren’t “takes” — players with legitimate scholarship offers — in a specific recruiting class from verballing to a school they won’t end up signing with anyway. Teams don’t like to admit it, but they do accept verbal commitments from players who won’t end up signing with them, for one reason or another.

On the other hand, it might result in unsigned, but committed players being cut from classes after December, so that teams can zero in on who they actually want, in order to make the scholarship math work out.

School X has 21 signed players in its recruiting class, with:

Now, what if there are three others who are strong targets for the school, based on senior season film and an assistant coach who came on in December with ties to a player who previously wasn’t on a radar?

That means there are seven unsigned targets, with room in the class for only four.

In a different year, a school could offer one of the new strong targets and drop one of the players already verballed in the class, if the new target commits. It’s not a great practice, but it happens. This year, there’s less leeway because those 21 players are already locked in. School X can’t cut any signed players in order to make room for new targets.

Per Herman’s logic, it isn’t the move to offer a player this late in the game, because you can’t take a commitment you don’t have room for.

Schools are typically only allowed to sign 25 players, but some can sign 27 or 28 depending on their particular scholarship situations. Other schools will sign fewer players than the 25 target number. While most of the teams in that chart are Power 5s, many Group of 5 schools also have nearly full classes as well. The ones that don’t are at the bottom half of the Sun Belt and MAC, and unlikely to benefit from the trickle down.

As for the elite programs, a team like Clemson won’t take anywhere near 25, partly because it has players returning unexpectedly. The Tigers return three defensive linemen that many — including Clemson’s staff, most likely — expected to go to the NFL draft.

They’re back, and that’s gonna mess with Clemson’s scholarship math. That combines with the ESP to limit who Clemson can target and sign in February.

The return of the entire DL complicates the numbers a little bit. Barring transfers Clemson will have 16 spots available as is. I expect 2-3 to attrition, and 18-19 in the class. If you see the staff start to take more and more kids, it’s a sign that they know players will be transferring.

It’s a nice problem to have, but it is a bit of an adjustment as far as long-term depth is concerned. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has said he loves the December period, for the record.

The recruiting game of February Signing Day has changed, and the numbers game might’ve experienced the most seismic shift.