Now that there’s an Early Signing Period in December, replacing a head coach is an even bigger risk than before. Players want to commit to stability, and most new head coaches have only a couple weeks to hang on to their predecessors’ classes before the ESP ends.
Most new coaches have rough Early Signing Periods, but there’s February hope
A look back at the first year show most December classes should rise nicely by National Signing Day.
Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images
Amid year two of the ESP era, we’re seeing this play out in a lot of different ways around the country, and it could start to really impact hiring and firing decisions by ADs.
Some new hires are able to maintain commitments, add a couple names, and set up nicely for National Signing Day in February. Others have long ways to go. Some even seemingly punt on the ESP and just prepare for NSD, trying to build relationships rather than scramble for commits.
Based on the first year’s full round of December and February signing days: if you hire a new head coach, expect a pretty rough ESP.
Let’s look back at where last year’s new Power 5 head coaches ranked in recruiting after the Early Signing Period.
(Note: We’ll go off data from the 247Sports Composite throughout.)
- Herm Edwards, Arizona State: : 71
- Chad Morris, Arkansas: 81
- Dan Mullen, Florida: 17
- Willie Taggart, Florida State: 22
- Joe Moorhead, Mississippi State: 25
- Matt Luke, Ole Miss: 37
- Scott Frost, Nebraska: 34
- Mario Cristobal, Oregon: 15
- Jonathan Smith, Oregon State: 89
- Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee: 16
- Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M: 29
- Chip Kelly, UCLA: 26
Obviously, these numbers aren’t all great, especially for some of the big-name schools that are used to recruiting near the top 10.
Now, look where these same hires from last year finished in February, compared to ESP.
Ten of those schools jumped significantly in the final National Signing Day rankings, and by an average of 14 spots. Only Tennessee and Mississippi State finished lower in February, but they didn’t slip enough to really matter.
- Arizona State: 37th (jumped 34 spots)
- Arkansas: 48th (jumped 33 spots)
- Florida: 14th (jumped three spots)
- Florida State: 11th (jumped 11 spots)
- Mississippi State: 27th (dropped two spots)
- Ole Miss: 32nd (jumped five spots)
- Nebraska: 23rd (jumped 11 spots)
- Oregon: 13th (jumped two spots)
- Oregon State: 69th (nice, jumped 20 spots)
- Tennessee: 21st (dropped five spots)
- Texas A&M: 17th (jumped 12 spots)
- UCLA: 19th (jumped seven spots)
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the outlook for 2018’s new head coaches as the ESP ends.
This year, we saw fewer new Power 5 coaches than last year, but we still had nine make coaching changes. If history tells us anything, it’s that most of these classes will rate much higher come NSD. Like we saw last year, a bad December ranking certainly doesn’t equal a bad February ranking.
- Mel Tucker, Colorado: 50
- Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech: 53
- Les Miles, Kansas: 106th
- Chris Klieman, Kansas State: 75
- Scott Satterfield, Louisville: 129
- Mike Locksley, Maryland: 83
- Mack Brown, North Carolina: 38
- Ryan Day, Ohio State: 12
- Matt Wells, Texas Tech: 61
North Carolina, Colorado, and Georgia Tech are in great shape, with partial December classes that already rank right around their usual February classes and have room to add more names.
UNC’s off to a particularly nice start. The Tar Heels’ No. 38 class is one of the best in recent years for a team coming off a two-win season. It’s highlighted by four-star QB Sam Howell, who flipped from Florida State.
Ohio State is a bit of a unique situation. New head coach Ryan Day and some key assistants have already been on staff for a long time. The No. 12 ranking is lower than past Buckeye classes under Urban Meyer, but it’s pretty small (just 15 signees and one verbal commit) and has a high per-player average rating.
Louisville and Kansas have long ways to go. Louisville only has four signees after emerging from Bobby Petrino’s latest wreckage, so expect a huge jump in the rankings for Satterfield in February.
It’s clear new hires will have a ton of ground to make up by February each year. Should that change the hiring decisions at some schools?
If you have a chance to sign a great class in December relative to your school’s usual expectations, could that merit giving your current coach another chance to win?
What if there’s a big name head coach out there that you might have a shot at hiring, but you aren’t sure? A delay in filling the job could lead to a disastrous ESP. While you can still climb back up in the rankings in February, it’s preferable to not have to.
Every circumstance is different, but we did see some schools manage smooth transitions. Georgia Tech only had one December decommitment, perhaps thanks in part to Paul Johnson’s exit being a retirement, rather than a firing. New Colorado coach Mel Tucker added several of CU’s best signees during the ESP after six December decommits amid transition, by comparison.
When to make a move at head coach — both in terms of which point in the season and in which season — has always been one of an athletic director’s toughest tasks, but thanks to the ESP, it’s become more complicated than ever.
