How long can Ole Miss stay No. 1 in the 2019 college football recruiting rankings?

It’s April 9. And as of this writing, Ole Miss sits atop the college football recruiting rankings. Let’s ask and answer some questions about this.

The obvious answer is timing and quantity. I find myself writing about this every year, because the same thing happens each year, while the teams change.

This early in the year, teams have wildly different numbers of commitments. Some teams have close to 20, while some have five. This greatly impacts the point totals and ratings formulas, which are not intended to rate classes so varied in number. It’s a complicating factor not present on Signing Day, when the vast majority of teams will take somewhere around 20 players.

The Ole Miss Rebels have 14 verbal commitments, the most in the country and more than double the national average. For comparison purposes, Oklahoma and Texas have four a piece.

On the whole, Ole Miss is up top in April because of quantity, not quality. 10 other schools have as many or more blue-chips committed than the Rebels, they just don’t have 11 additional three-star players. We should also note that early ratings of players are at best incomplete, and often flawed. They are dynamic and evolve as the season presses on. Some of Ole Miss’ three-star commitments could easily see their rankings rise.

But that doesn’t mean the Rebels don’t have good players.

Diwun Black, of Forest (Miss), is a 6’4, 212-pound safety who could easily be 230 pounds after a year or two in a college strength program. He can be a difference maker whether he stays at safety, or moves to linebacker.

Running back Jerrion Ealy, of Flowood (Miss.) Jackson Prep could be the best back in the nation. The 5’9, 195-pound Ealy showcases absolutely ridiculous moves, as well as toughness. He also happens to be rated the No. 3 baseball prospect in the nation, which calls into question whether he’ll ever have a carry in college football, since baseball offers guaranteed millions.

Down ballot, I am a fan of Bryce Ramsey, a center from Gulfport (Miss.) Harrison Central. Ramsey is working to re-shape his body, but I like his balance and quickness for his size. And he plays with a mean streak. Ramsey is currently rated No. 956 in the country, and I’m pretty sure there are not 1,000 or so better players than him.

Unless Ole Miss drastically increases the quality of prospects in its class, it is not going to finish No. 1 come National Signing Day. Given that many programs have spring games (a frequent source of commitments) in April, the Rebels might not even finish the month at No. 1.

Hypothetically, let’s say Ole Miss continues to recruit the same caliber player to finish out its class, going from 14 commitments, to 28, which is possible because Ole Miss is expected to sign a lot of players in this cycle.

In that case, they could finish around 18th, which is where UCLA did in 2017, signing 28 players at an average-star rating of 3.4. Ole Miss ‘ current class has an average-star rating of 3.2.

But, I think the Rebels have a legitimate shot to finish better than that, because the state of Mississippi is so talented in 2019, considerably more so than normal. Already, the Magnolia State has 13 recruits rated four- or five-stars, about twice as many as it has averaged over the last decade.

Ole Miss is pitching its in-state prospects on staying home and playing together, via its “Mississippi Made” movement.

“The thought of all of us Mississippi athletes staying home in this class is going to be scary,” Stanley said, saying he has fully embraced the Rebels’ “Mississippi Made” theme for the 2019 recruiting cycle.

Remaining targets for the Rebels include five-star LB Nakobe Dean, defensive end Jaren Handy, and defensive end De’Monte Russell, among others.

The Rebels are also able to sell playing time like no other SEC West team, after signing two classes in as many years that didn’t measure up to the top half of the conference.

And it helps that they have a QB committed in Grant Tisdale, since QBs are typically good recruiters themselves.

“They’re one of those programs that they’re kind of in between from good and bad,” Tisdale said. “I wanna make them a great team, so that’s where I’m trying to work at right now.”

Of course, no games are being played right now.

If Ole Miss can manage to put together a surprising year on the field, the Rebels could have a shot at a top-10 class. And that is possible, since the Rebels have an extremely easy schedule by SEC West standards. Ole Miss draws South Carolina and Vanderbilt from the East, and it plays Texas Tech, Southern Illinois, Louisiana Monroe, and Kent State in the non-conference slate. There’s a reasonable path for Ole Miss not to be sweating out a bowl appearance on Thanksgiving weekend in the Egg Bowl (Ole Miss isn’t bowl eligible due to NCAA sanctions, I remembered after I published this). And if that happens, maybe there will be a recruiting breakthrough.