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Come Fan with UsSunday, July 5, 2026

NFL Week 11 computer picks: Favorites will cover huge point spreads

The three biggest favorites will all cover the spread if the Week 11 computer picks from OddsShark.com are accurate. The Patriots, Falcons and Texans are all double-digit chalk.

Bob Levey

Houston faces a mammoth 17-point spread and both the Patriots and Falcons are staring down double-digit numbers on the Week 11 NFL odds menu. That’s no problem, according to the Odds Shark computer picks. All three favorites should cover the spread in a week that will trend heavily to the favorites.

“The computer went 9-4-1 SU last weekend but slumped to a losing record against the spread,” analyst Jack Randall said of the 6-8 ATS mark from Week 10.

Upsets by Cincinnati over the Giants and by the Saints over the Falcons did not show up in the computer’s crystal ball.

In Week 11, the winning starts Thursday with Miami rebounding from a horrible effort to beat the Bills on the road. The game has been a PK at sportsbooks all week so far, although one (Bovada) has Buffalo favored by 2 points.

Houston will crush the Jaguars 33-8 and easily cover the week’s biggest point spread (17 points) and Atlanta will rebound from its first loss to cover 10 points at home to Arizona, 29-17.

New England will also cover as double-digit chalk, handling Andrew Luck’s Colts 36-23.

Which teams will pull Week 11 upsets? Try Tampa Bay, which opened as an underdog but has been bet up to 2-point favorites at some sportsbooks. The computer says they will win 29-18 at Carolina.

Cleveland will cover 7 points in a 20-17 loss at Dallas and Baltimore will upset the Steelers 30-27 Sunday Night.

Check out all the score predictions for Week 11 below and see last week’s pick article.

Miami

22.3

Buffalo

15.5

0

MIA

45.5

U

Jacksonville

8.1

Houston

33.2

-16

HOU

42.5

U

Arizona

17.3

Atlanta

28.6

-10

ATL

45.5

O

Tampa Bay

29.2

Carolina

17.7

-1.5

TB

48

U

Green Bay

29.8

Detroit

23.3

3.5

GB

51

O

Cleveland

16.8

Dallas

19.7

-7

CLE

44

U

Philadelphia

16.4

Washington

21.2

-1.5

WAS

44

P

NY Jets

15.6

St. Louis

16.1

-1

NYJ

38

U

Cincinnati

22.5

Kansas City

11.5

3

CIN

44

U

NewOrleans

26.4

Oakland

16.9

3

NO

54

U

San Diego

25.9

Denver

33

-6.5

DEN

50

O

Indianapolis

23

NewEngland

35.5

-10

NE

53

O

Baltimore

29.6

Pittsburgh

26.5

-4.5

BAL

46

O

Chicago

32

SanFrancisco

29.4

OFF

CHI

OFF


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