Odds are good that it won’t matter which team ranks No. 3 or 4 or 5 in the BCS standings this week or next week or the week after that. No, seriously: The numbers show Alabama and Florida State as overwhelming favorites after Oregon’s loss, with Stanford, Baylor and Ohio State in the mix just in case one of the kingpins stumbles.
2013 BCS standings, Week 12: FSU takes No. 2, battle for No. 3 begins
Drama has left the top of the BCS rankings. Alabama and Florida State will remain entrenched until someone forcibly removes them. But the next three spots? That’s the new disputed territory.
The fact that it will likely not matter where those three rank will not stop ink, sweat, and tears being spilled over their placement. Do you value the season’s best win (but also a poor loss) and a tough schedule over perfection? If so, you take Stanford. Do you favor total bombardment of overwhelmed competition? Baylor’s your pick. Do you reward a team for winning 21 straight games and already being shut out of the BCS once? Then it’s Ohio State.
The updated BCS standings for Week 12, with full computer and polls data:
| BCS | Harris Poll | Coaches Poll | Computer rankings | ||||||||||||||
| Rank | Team | Avg. | Prev. | Rank | Points | % | Rank | Points | % | AVG | A&H | RB | CM | KM | JS | PW | % |
| 1 | Alabama | .9958 | 1 | 1 | 2625 | 1.0000 | 1 | 1546 | .9974 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .990 |
| 2 | Florida State | .9619 | 2 | 2 | 2514 | .9577 | 2 | 1485 | .9581 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .970 |
| 3 | Ohio State | .8926 | 4 | 3 | 2373 | .9040 | 3 | 1401 | .9039 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | .870 |
| 4 | Stanford | .8689 | 5 | 5 | 2240 | .8533 | 5 | 1307 | .8432 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | .910 |
| 5 | Baylor | .8618 | 6 | 4 | 2304 | .8777 | 4 | 1376 | .8877 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | .820 |
| 6 | Oregon | .7665 | 3 | 6 | 1968 | .7497 | 7 | 1162 | .7497 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 6 | .800 |
| 7 | Auburn | .7206 | 9 | 9 | 1843 | .7021 | 9 | 1069 | .6897 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 5 | .770 |
| 8 | Clemson | .7200 | 7 | 7 | 1940 | .7390 | 6 | 1164 | .7510 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 9 | .670 |
| 9 | Missouri | .7118 | 8 | 8 | 1855 | .7067 | 8 | 1083 | .6987 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | .730 |
| 10 | South Carolina | .5584 | 12 | 12 | 1417 | .5398 | 12 | 830 | .5355 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 12 | .600 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | .5473 | 15 | 10 | 1582 | .6027 | 11 | 898 | .5794 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 14 | .460 |
| 12 | Oklahoma State | .4671 | 14 | 11 | 1545 | .5886 | 10 | 965 | .6226 | 22 | 14 | 20 | 18 | NR | 22 | 25 | .190 |
| 13 | UCLA | .4548 | 19 | 16 | 1026 | .3909 | 15 | 641 | .4135 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 11 | .560 |
| 14 | Fresno State | .4317 | 16 | 13 | 1124 | .4282 | 14 | 646 | .4168 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 25 | 12 | 13 | .450 |
| 15 | Northern Illinois | .3505 | 18 | 18 | 825 | .3143 | 21 | 445 | .2871 | 14 | 24 | 12 | 20 | 17 | 6 | 10 | .450 |
| 16 | Michigan State | .3417 | 17 | 15 | 1090 | .4152 | 16 | 620 | .4000 | 21 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 22 | .210 |
| 17 | UCF | .3411 | 21 | 19 | 791 | .3013 | 19 | 468 | .3019 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 16 | .420 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | .2926 | 10 | 20 | 732 | .2789 | 17 | 510 | .3290 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 23 | NR | 23 | .270 |
| 19 | Arizona State | .2833 | 22 | 22 | 475 | .1810 | 22 | 262 | .1690 | 12 | 11 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 15 | .500 |
| 20 | Louisville | .2806 | 20 | 14 | 1104 | .4206 | 13 | 653 | .4213 | 28 | NR | 18 | NR | NR | NR | NR | .000 |
| 21 | LSU | .2757 | 13 | 17 | 919 | .3501 | 18 | 476 | .3071 | 24 | NR | 19 | NR | 16 | 21 | 21 | .170 |
| 22 | Wisconsin | .2612 | 24 | 21 | 674 | .2568 | 20 | 460 | .2968 | 18 | 22 | 22 | NR | 18 | 19 | 18 | .230 |
| 23 | Miami (FL) | .1471 | 11 | 23 | 457 | .1741 | 23 | 228 | .1471 | 25 | 21 | NR | 21 | 21 | NR | 24 | .120 |
| 24 | Texas | .1092 | NR | 24 | 247 | .0941 | 24 | 176 | .1135 | 25 | 20 | 14 | 24 | 24 | 24 | NR | .120 |
| 25 | Georgia | .0857 | NR | 25 | 102 | .0389 | NR | 44 | .0284 | 22 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 15 | 25 | 20 | .190 |
The especially fun part: Fans of those teams won’t even agree with how I just characterized the arguments above. That’s how close and heated it is. So games will be played.
As it has been for a month now, the main other thing to eye is Fresno State’s (and Northern Illinois’) creep toward the top. If one of them can rank within the top 12 or in the top 14 and ahead of the lowest AQ champ, it’s in a BCS bowl, no questions asked. Since the human polls remain laughably skeptical of projected American champion UCF, that’s looking more and more likely.
If Fresno makes it in, your BCS slate will be something like this (full bowl projections here):
| Bowl | Matchup | Team | Team | |
| 1/6/2014 | BCS National Championship (Pasadena) | BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 | Alabama | Florida State |
| 1/3/2014 | Orange (Miami) | Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1 | Clemson | Oregon |
| 1/2/2014 | Sugar (New Orleans) | Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2 | Auburn | UCF |
| 1/1/2014 | Rose (Pasadena) | Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 | Ohio State | Stanford |
| 1/1/2014 | Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) | Big 12 1 vs. At-large 3 | Baylor | Fresno State |
However, if Fresno State and Northern Illinois stumble down the stretch (NIU’s schedule is about to toughen up, while Fresno’s is ...), we’d have something more like this:
| Bowl | Matchup | Team | Team | |
| 1/6/2014 | BCS National Championship (Pasadena) | BCS 1 vs. BCS 2 | Alabama | Florida State |
| 1/3/2014 | Orange (Miami) | Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1 | Clemson | Oregon |
| 1/2/2014 | Sugar (New Orleans) | Alabama replacement vs. At-large 2 | Auburn | Oklahoma State |
| 1/1/2014 | Rose (Pasadena) | Pac-12 1 vs. Big Ten 1 | Ohio State | Stanford |
| 1/1/2014 | Fiesta (Glendale, AZ) | Big 12 1 vs. At-large 3 | Baylor | UCF |
Those are better games. But the rules are the rules.
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